Hi:

Requesting a knowledgable experienced set of eyes to evaluate as definitively as possible my account of what I think may be the most important step in the Decision Tree. I've attempted to explain Step 4 in my own words to try to capture all the components in play:

4. Did the convergence of stats represented by pitcher's OAV+ vs. batter's AVG+, the batter’s 1B#, and batter-pitcher Platoon Advantage make the at-bat a hit or an out?

Have I missed anything? Have I left anything out or gotten part of it wrong? I didn't include Park Factor 1B in this step because the consensus seemed to arise that it doesn't come into play here.

Finally, one last thing: Does the fact that determining whether the PA is a BB comes one step earlier in the tree than the above (Step 3) implicitly make a pitcher's BB+/# a little bit more important than his OAV +/#?

Thanks in advance, your feedback is greatly appreciated...

Step 4 in the decision tree appeared to be the ONLY place where the 1B factor of the ballpark is used, so I believe your current interpretation is not likely correct. The ballpark 1B factor is used in the calculation to determine hit or out, and then the HR, 2B, and 3B factors are used in later steps to influence whether a determined hit is one of those types. Any hit not determined to be a HR, 2B, or 3B then simply remains a single by default.

Thanks very much for your explanation. I included 1B# because past posts have alluded to the mention of a "hits multiplier" in the original 2009 presentation, and though no one seems to know for sure, I was guessing the term might relate to either 1B# or Ballpark 1B. So, taking into account your comment about the Ballpark factor, should my revised text perhaps read like this?:

4. Did the convergence of stats represented by pitcher's OAV+ vs. batter's AVG+, the ballpark 1B factor, and batter-pitcher Platoon Advantage make the at-bat a hit or an out?

Can someone link the presentation? I've never actually seen it

Thank you Google...

Nice, thanks.

I really need to read contrarian's thread too... Despite playing this game off and on for 15 years, I have read very little of the actual documentation about it.

Thanks! That is true about the higher + stat getting the advantage - it can be seen on the bottom of that "mortgage calculator"-like page on the site (with all the fielding and offense stats) where you can plug in different values and compare them, that it's not a straight average.

What does anyone think about the idea that a pitcher's BB +/# is slightly more important than OAV +/# because it occurs one step earlier in the Tree - significant or negligible?

The hitter's AVG carries more weight due to the matchup weights, the higher + stat gets a weighted advantage, and then the platoon (dis)advantage of 4.5% is factored in as well. It's much more than just a simple average.

'23 Ruth's AVG of .393 vs 2000 Pedro's OAV of .167 yields .280 as a simple average. The slides show you the actual calculated average of .2614 due to all those other variables.