Too many walks in SLB? At least in high-cap? Topic

What do you think?

Just a result of drafts and match-ups?

Or is it closer to the core somewhere?
2/2/2019 10:08 AM
I believe walks are determined by like hitters 53% and pitchers 47% for walks. So it makes sense that at high caps, with Ted Williams, John McGraw, etc. that there’s a lot of walks at high caps
2/2/2019 2:20 PM
For walks, the hitter influence is 56.5% to 43.5% for pitchers. As caps get higher, team walk totals will rise, so it makes sense that walks are more frequent at higher caps. I don't think it's anywhere near problematic, unbalanced levels though. It's still easy to find excellent BB numbers from pitchers even up to $255M. I'm in a $220M league where '08 Walsh and '08 Brown have BB/9 numbers in the low 2's, and '16 Kershaw is at a microscopic 0.84. In a different $182M league Walsh is at 1.85 BB/9 and Kershaw 0.87. Many years ago, it was totally normal to see even the best Joss and Maddux seasons with BB/9 numbers in the 4's and 5's at the highest caps.

Scoring at high caps is way, way down from where it was several years ago and prior, when I'd be thrilled if '15 Alexander or '08 Joss would have an ERA in the 5's or 6's. When I used to play $255M caps in Coors, my goal was for my starters to have ERA's under 9.00. Now we can see ERA's of entire staffs in the 4's or better.
2/3/2019 4:06 PM
Yeah, before we get into debating reasons, I'm skeptical of the entire premise.

1.) How frequent are walks at high caps? (And what qualifies as a high cap?)
2.) What is the evidence that this observed rate is "too high"? Too high compared to what?

Without looking at any data, I would expect walk rates to be significantly higher at, say, caps of 120M+ than at caps of 60-90M, because the quality of the hitters is so much better, and the greatest hitters in MLB history include a lot of guys who walked a lot.
2/3/2019 4:14 PM
From a recent $255M league (a blacklist league that probably played more like $200M):

Here are the guys on my team who finished with more than 300PA:
Player SN AB BB HBP PA SIM BB/PA Actual BB Actual PA Actual BB/PA
Keeler, Willie 1897 758 30 7 795 3.77% 44 771 5.71%
Carew, Rod 1977 694 51 4 749 6.81% 69 699 9.87%
Boudreau, Lou 1948 649 62 3 714 8.68% 102 707 14.43%
Gehringer, Charlie 1937 627 76 2 705 10.78% 95 695 13.67%
Heilmann, Harry 1923 590 79 2 671 11.77% 78 659 11.84%
Thompson, Sam 1894 549 45 4 598 7.53% 51 605 8.43%
McGraw, John 1899 506 124 8 638 19.44% 136 590 23.05%
Clements, Jack 1895 427 18 5 450 4.00% 27 440 6.14%
Kelley, Joe 1894 288 52 2 342 15.20% 135 784 17.22%
Carroll, Fred 1889 259 52 3 314 16.56% 104 509 20.43%
TEAM TOTALS -- 5910 609 44 5976 10.19% 841 6459 13.02%

2/3/2019 4:23 PM
So walks for my hitters are down something like 25-30% compared to RL. How much lower do you think they should be, and why?
2/3/2019 4:26 PM
Too many walks in SLB? At least in high-cap? Topic

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