Posted by tgblackw on 5/10/2019 11:18:00 AM (view original):
https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerHistory/Ratings.aspx?&pid=3967396
I was really excited when I signed this guy for my D3 team. He never was a dominant slashing scorer like I had hoped he would be. He was a good player but I thought I had gotten a white whale when I got him. Was his LP to low? Did I screw it up? Seems like he checks all of the boxes.
the problem is that 2pt% shots are just not that good. you get some putback and tip-ins with bigs, but those have *nothing* to do with distribution settings. you can get bigs up to 55, 56% with 99 ath/lp and 60 spd/per type ratings, sometimes, but that includes those putbacks and tip-ins. the reality is you'll basically never beat 50% by much - maybe 52% - on the marginal shots you take from 2 point range, between a 0 distro and anything else. SOS is a big factor, i don't really know how things work against terrible teams, nor do i care, but just to be clear - those rates are for hard competition.
look at your player's FTA as a % of FGA - its not perfect, because the FT% he has influences how many FTA he takes - ideally you'd get fouls drawn as a separate line item in the stats, but we don't. anyway, its pretty high, and that's pretty good. sure, ideally your dude would be 52% with that foul drawing rate, but that's like 7 extra shots made all season. so i would consider him a relative success - we just have to remain clear-eyed about how practical 2 point scoring is. its relatively impossible to have as efficient 2 point scoring as you can with 3 point scoring, hence the importance on 3 point scoring and 3 point defense in this game. you can do it with like, an A+ ft shooter, but that is really rare - or you can do it with an uptempo set that is really heavy on foul drawing (the more possessions per game, the more foul drawing benefits you through destroying the other team's rotation). both of those are tricky - better to stick to 3s and build around that - and take these slasher guards when you can, as a modest upgrade over bigs (slasher guards draw more fouls than bigs).
5/10/2019 5:24 PM (edited)