It needs to be high or very high to land the recruit. If you're the only school with an offer and you're at moderate, while all other schools are very low, when RS2 begins you will jump up to very high. Also, if you see more sims arrive at very low as the cycles continue, don't feel threatened. If you've already got your offer in, and lead, sims will not pursue. Consider all sims dead once your offer is in and they are very low.
if they are above very low, or you do not have an offer in, sims are still very much at play. In your example, the only thing you have to fear, is other humans getting involved at this point.