Posted by mllama54 on 5/27/2019 11:51:00 AM (view original):
I first wanted to reduce salary on the bad team. I chose 21 Ruth and his 26,701,562 salary. I also needed another reducer but I did not want to choose a starter. Redwing is too good a manager to give him that kind of weapon. So I chose the expensive Eckersley and his 74 IP for 7,573,308. Now to minimize the potential offensive threat of Ruth, I must not give Redwing any other offensive threats. Since WIS values defense I could get poor hitters by getting good defensive players. I know this strategy is contrary to many others in this theme but I chose to sacrifice bad fielding to get bad hitting.
If you take Ruth out of the equation, all of my other hitters have 5,216 PA .225 BA/.286 OBP/.320 SLG. My fielding for those players is B-/B-.
Again my only decent pitcher is my closer Eckersley 74 IP/0.61 ERA/.161 OAV/0.61 WHIP/.25 HR. My other pitchers have 1,394 IP/4.08 ERA/.270 OAV/1.37 WHIP/.75 HR. I do not have a stud starter. I don't plan to have that many leads going into the ninth for Eckersley to be a factor.
My good team including Ruth has 6.092 PA/.297 BA/.376 OBP/.441 SLG/.814 OPS. My defense is solid c-/a- at 2b,a-/a- at SS, b+b+ at 1b,and c-/b- at 3b. OF and c are mediocre fielders. My pitching is solid. I went with 4 of my favorite starters 09 Lincecum, 03 Hudson, 03 Hudson, and 01 Johnson. Overall my pitching is 1,420 IP/ 2.36 ERA/1.02 WHIP/ .211 OAV.
I am lousy at predicting but here is my shot. My bad team will play 88 Good teams and 74 Bad teams..Of those 74 games 2 series will be 4 games and 22 series will be 3 games. My good team will be playing 88 games against bad teams and 74 games will be against good teams. Again 2 series will be 4 games and 22 series will be 3 games.
Bad Team. I believe all bad teams for all users will need to go minimum of 18 - 70 against good teams. If all other bad teams have at least one stud pitching in 24 series I will need to go 10 - 14 minimally in those games. That leaves 50 games against other bad teams non studs. I hope to do better than this but lets assume .500 so 25 - 25.
Bad team summary
18 - 70 Good teams
10 - 14 Bad team studs
25 - 25 Bad team non - studs
53 - 109 Total
Good team. Using the same logic all bad teams studs should be .500 13 - 13. That leaves 62 games against bad teams 44 - 18. Also .500 against other good teams which is 37 - 37.
Good team summary
44 - 18 Bad teams
13 - 13 Bad team studs
37 - 37 Good Teams
94 - 68 Total
My math maybe screwy and feel free to correct me. But I am looking at accumulating 94 g0od team wins and 109 bad team losses for a total of 203 points. Whether I get that high seems like a longshot but I think the winner of this thing will get at least that many points. My gamble is that bad hitting and bad pitching will out lose bad fielding teams.
There are whole avenues of thinking here that I never considered, such as distribution of innings (and, to a lesser extent, PA) on your good team based on the good or bad opponent. If I'd thought of this math, I might have tried to carry a set of SP just for each type of opponent. In theory, it would have been possible to get away with a set of cheaper SP for those games against bad teams and therefore improve the quality of the ones reserved to start against good teams.
Instead, I'm basically going to be running out a 3-man rotation all year (about 900 IP combined) with two fill-ins, which increasingly looks like a very poorly designed system. I think I'd have been far better off with three better 200-inning guys to face the good teams and three weaker 150-inning guys for the bad ones, or something like that. I'm sure someone else figured this out and is doing it, or something along these lines that's a wiser use of resources.