He shot 26 3pts against +1 and made 12... (smile)

Posted by pallas on 7/15/2019 6:53:00 AM (view original):
https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=17195350&tab=boxscore

?

I was thinking about the SIM center who has a 30 PER, 42 SPEED and 27 BH. I would wager 95%+ of human users would set him at -2 but he is a career 26% shooter (11-42) which is much higher than I thought it would be.

I am just hypothesizing now but I think the SIM uses a formula that starts with all 3 point shots have a 33% chance of going in. All factors (players attributes, defensive metric, setting, fatigue, type of offesnse, etc) modify that base # of 33%. The negative penalties just can't be that bad or that guy (and the hundreds of sim controlled players) shooting % would be much lower.

Emy, who was a great coach who played by sense of smell, used to always state that the vast majority of players were to strict with their 3pt setting. I think he moved guys from -2 to -1 at like 40ish PER.

Just thinking out loud.

Posted by zorzii on 7/15/2019 8:13:00 AM (view original):
He shot 26 3pts against +1 and made 12... (smile)

3-2 (+1) is actually pretty high up. I knew they were going to shoot a lot. I just didn't figure they were going to make them at a 46% clip, especially when they came into the game making just over 30%.

Weird things happen. I get it. It's just one of the most unpredictable results I've gotten.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 7/15/2019 11:14:00 AM (view original):
I was thinking about the SIM center who has a 30 PER, 42 SPEED and 27 BH. I would wager 95%+ of human users would set him at -2 but he is a career 26% shooter (11-42) which is much higher than I thought it would be.

I am just hypothesizing now but I think the SIM uses a formula that starts with all 3 point shots have a 33% chance of going in. All factors (players attributes, defensive metric, setting, fatigue, type of offesnse, etc) modify that base # of 33%. The negative penalties just can't be that bad or that guy (and the hundreds of sim controlled players) shooting % would be much lower.

Emy, who was a great coach who played by sense of smell, used to always state that the vast majority of players were to strict with their 3pt setting. I think he moved guys from -2 to -1 at like 40ish PER.

Just thinking out loud.

Recently, I'm starting to agree with Emy.

It's funny, or at least to me, that the two guys I read the most and learned the most from were Gillespie and Emy. Gil frequently gets on the "3 point shooters are the most efficient" diatribe and Emy had no problem telling people their settings were all wrong. For ten years I more or less ignored them both....probably not my best decision.

Here's another example of a guy that shouldn't be good but is:

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=13070&pid=4204640

42 SPEED
48 PER
86 BH

Granted he has a 100 ATH and A- fastbreak but still he shouldn't be shooting 37.5% for 3FGA (24-64). It's the only SIM in the best d1 conference in Knight. His SOS is 30 and only had like 5 sims on his schedule. It's a small sample size for sure but there are lots of these guys on SIM controlled teams.

I'm definitely in the let the kids shoot camp, and to me positioning plays a huge role. Once I get a guy to 40-50 perimeter/spd/bh I start looking at matchups where I could put him at -1. This guy is a decent example, https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=11815, he shoots a little over 1 three a game and is around 30% which I'm pretty happy with. He still gets to the line which is kind of how the team is set up right now, but helps keep the defense honest as well. Also I may be seeing what I want to see, but it seems to me like he makes more 3's when playing PF compared to SF, which makes sense.

"Also I may be seeing what I want to see, but it seems to me like he makes more 3's when playing PF compared to SF, which makes sense."

I think the "what type of shot is taken" decision is influenced by who is covering the player and the position. I have always had a hard time getting the 5 to shoot 3's but the 40 speed guy should take more 3FGA against slow PF than faster SF who probably have a lower block.

I suspect that BLK and SPEED weigh heavily in the "what type of shot is taken" decision.

these types of players - the 40-50 per PFs - they have some potential. more than some give them credit for, but with some restrictions. basically, these kinds of players work better outside of top tier competition. when you face pfs who are also good per defenders, it just doesnt work very well. against weaker competition, they can do pretty well. they are definitely a potential option for folks who lack dominant 3 point scoring from the 1-3. however, i don't believe that 40-50 per scoring at the 4 can reach the efficiency, on average, of a top notch scorer at the 1-3. so, i feel like great teams really should not be relying on this kind of 3 point offense - they should have much better options.

that was super rambly, so i'll just say - i think these guys can work, but they are 1) not the first choice, 2) not really efficient against top tier competition, and 3) sample size is so small, and for every 1 someone finds who is actually playing like the are worth a damn, several are playing like crap. if you are trying to punch above your weight, and compensate for deficiencies, i think this is a viable route to consider. if you are a top tier team, you should be way past the point where this kind of offense has a chance of being more efficient, on average, than your lead 3 point scorers. so, a lot of this comes down to perspective.