How significant are park factors in regards to the frequency of grounding into double plays?
12/14/2019 2:19 PM (edited)
I don't think it will work this way. Here's why, and I hope pjfoster weighs in.

There's a lot of evidence that the sim determines "hit vs. out" very early in the sim algorithm. If I'm right about this, there is no, "groundball to short, let's see what happens;" there is only, "there's an out, let's see what kind." I would presume in that case that the sim then determines whether the out is a groundout, and then looks at speed and fielding rating to determine a DP.

If all that is correct, the sim just turns hits into outs in WIC, not specifically groundball singles into groundouts. So if you're slow, and you still have to hit into 27 or so outs a game, you'll hit into the same number of DPs in WIC as in ABQ. In fact, because your OBP will go up in ABQ, you'l hit into slightly more DPs.

I'm not sure I'm right about how park effects are applied-- for example, this explanation logically leads to the conclusion that a park that reduces doubles does so by making them into singles, and I don't know that's true-- so take this with more than a grain of salt, and hope other people weigh in with their thoughts.

Edit-- while I was typing this tlowster shortened the original post, which referenced DPs in moving from a park that suppresses singles to one that enhances them.
12/14/2019 2:27 PM
Posted by dedelman on 12/14/2019 2:29:00 PM (view original):
I don't think it will work this way. Here's why, and I hope pjfoster weighs in.

There's a lot of evidence that the sim determines "hit vs. out" very early in the sim algorithm. If I'm right about this, there is no, "groundball to short, let's see what happens;" there is only, "there's an out, let's see what kind." I would presume in that case that the sim then determines whether the out is a groundout, and then looks at speed and fielding rating to determine a DP.

If all that is correct, the sim just turns hits into outs in WIC, not specifically groundball singles into groundouts. So if you're slow, and you still have to hit into 27 or so outs a game, you'll hit into the same number of DPs in WIC as in ABQ. In fact, because your OBP will go up in ABQ, you'l hit into slightly more DPs.

I'm not sure I'm right about how park effects are applied-- for example, this explanation logically leads to the conclusion that a park that reduces doubles does so by making them into singles, and I don't know that's true-- so take this with more than a grain of salt, and hope other people weigh in with their thoughts.

Edit-- while I was typing this tlowster shortened the original post, which referenced DPs in moving from a park that suppresses singles to one that enhances them.
Sorry, Dedelman. I noticed that nobody was replying, but were replying to other posts. I thought i typed too much so I edited it.

Thanks for the reply, man. That is an excellent point about Wichita (-3) vs. Albuquerque (+4) -- Albuquerque will lead to more guys on 1b so it may increase the amount of double plays that my slow guys are hitting into.

The above helps a lot. I am trying to find a clever way to reduce the GIDP. My pitching is is pretty good in both leagues, my OPS is respectable in both leagues, but the GIDPs are killing me from a runs scored perspective.
12/14/2019 4:16 PM
Manager/Edit Manager Settings/Launch Angle, and then set to the highest value. Oh, wait...

The only thing I can think of is, if your slow guys are good baserunners, and/or if your team has very high contact ratings, you could try pushing the hit and run up a notch or two. But I'm not sure that would work, and trading DPs for CSs is not really a winning strategy.

12/14/2019 4:25 PM

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