Think of the odds of that happening in HD assuming a team is shooting 37% from 3 on the season.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=401166301

It’s 0. I don’t think HD shots are random and independent events. I’ve doubted that for a while.

Posted by cubcub113 on 1/19/2020 12:00:00 AM (view original):
It’s 0. I don’t think HD shots are random and independent events. I’ve doubted that for a while.

Yeah, I realize that. Good perimeter defenders.....guarding the 3 point line........which shooters are taking the shots. But still, pretty hard to do to go 0 for 25.

Posted by cubcub113 on 1/19/2020 12:00:00 AM (view original):
It’s 0. I don’t think HD shots are random and independent events. I’ve doubted that for a while.

its established fact that HD shots are not independent events - i believe they were in the first place though. once seble introduced feedback, it took away that independence. i wish i had saved that explanation of which events feedback was on, this is the 2nd or 3rd time i've wanted to reference it... but if memory serves, its not that all shots are dependent, but that the shots for each player are? basically, the two components of feedback that stuck with me due to importance were the feedback on a players shooting and their committing fouls.

the odds aren't that bad either, like 1 in 100K or so. considering there are at least 10 or so major events in a game you could be looking at for freak odds, something like this should happen every at least every 10K games. in HD, there are something like 3K games simulated per day, so you should see a major event in a game as outrageous as this, every few days (if you were to check every game). feedback does lower those odds, although not massively.