Conference tourneys in Tark start tonight. Those of us on the D1 bubble will be watching closely to see which auto bids get snapped up by teams who're low in the Projection Report. I had a little time watching the Ten/KC game today, and figured I'd create a little bubble tracker here.

My list below uses 55 as an arbitrary cut line. Teams at or above 55 in the PR are likely to qualify for at large bids, below that we're probably out of luck. At 53, my own school is squarely in the uncomfortable range.

* is for conferences where nobody's likely to break 55th place.
** is for conferences where only 1 or 2 schools are 55 or above, or just one school is likely to get to 55 if they win out.

Good luck everyone, bid stealers and bubble teams alike! I'll update this Monday if I get a chance.

ACC: 6 teams 55 or better
**A10: Bubble teams will root for Temple (35)
B12: 5 teams 55 or better
BEast: 3 teams 55 or better
**BSky: Root for Montana (58)
**BSouth: Root for VMI (38)
B10: 7 teams 55 or better
*BWest: Best team is #75
*Colonial: Best team is #94
*CUSA: Best team is #78
**Horizon: Root for Marquette (43)
**Ivy: Root for Princeton (28) or Yale (50)
*MAC: Best team is #100
*Metro: Best team is #105
**MEAC: Root for Delaware State (52)
*MVC: Best team is #74
MW: 3 teams 55 or better
**NEC: Root for Wagner (48) or Mount St. Mary's (49)
*OVC: Best team is #71
Pac: 8 teams 55 or better
**Patriot: Root for Holy Cross (45)
SEC: 7 teams 55 or better
**Southern: Root for App State (27) or Davidson (40)
**Southland: Root for UTSA (42)
**Summit: Root for Oral Roberts (26)
**Sun Belt: Root for Arkansas State (47)
**WAC: Root for Gonzaga (18) or Pepperdine (53)

* = 7 bids probably gone
** = 13 bids at high risk

50: Yale
51: BYU
52: Delaware State
53: Pepperdine
54: Tennessee
55: Texas
56: Oakland
57: Michigan
58: Montana
59: Virginia Tech
60: Belmont

I'd probably root for Utah if I was y'all

Nice write up kc, gl everyone

UPDATE:

Quarterfinals were generally kind to the bubble teams, as most of the teams that needed to win, did. Princeton and Mt. St. Mary's are out, but everyone else the bubble is rooting for took care of business.

Semifinals are bound to be more upset-filled. I'm still projecting the cut line at 55.

Last Five In:
51: Delaware State
52: Yale
53: Oakland
54: Pepperdine
55: Villanova

First Five Out:
56: Michigan
57: Wofford
58: Montana
59: Texas
60: Tennessee

Good luck in the semis fellas!

CT Semis, Yale and Pepperdine (rats) go down. Pepperdine had three bad losses after non-con, PIT is where we belong.

Congrats to everyone who qualified! The cut line did indeed wind up at 55.

Bids 58-64 were locked up early by conferences that had no teams ranked very high in the Projection Report.

Bids 56 & 57: Hartford upset Holy Cross (#51) in the NEC final, costing Michigan a bid. And Bucknell winning the Ivy after Princeton and Yale faltered early cost Wofford a bid. Yale squeaks in as the last at large.

Good luck to everyone in the NT! And thanks for indulging me with this thread. CT season is my favorite part of college basketball season, and I've always found bracketology fascinating.

Last five in:
50. BYU
51. Holy Cross
52. Virginia Tech
53. Montana (auto bid)
54. Oakland
55. Yale

First five out:
56. Michigan
57. Wofford
58. Mt St Marys
59. Texas
60. Tennessee

Pretty cool idea. I love the bracketology stuff in march madness too.

Might be a little easier in a 1x world to do this so it build up the anticipation!