Three points:

1/ Even with 20 million Scouting, projections are never perfect. I try to remind myself worst-case scenario is that a player ends up ten points less that his projections. (Realistically it's more likely to be around five, but like I said worst case.) At the top of the draft, I'm asking - even if this guy falls short is he still going to live up to his pick?

2/ Everyone gets hung up on projections like they're what a player is supposed to be. I try to think of them more like a way to separate the players you're looking at, at one time. Apples to apples. It's how you break down a draft class or a set of international prospects. Once they're signed, either by you or someone else, their projections are - I don't want to say meaningless, but they're old news.

3/ The system does occasionally generate Catchers like that, because in real life there are Catchers like that. You just have to be a little creative and diligent in how you fit them into your lineup. But I always think your major league roster will have 25 players on it. The 25th guy could be a useless roster filler, or he could be a Super Sub. Up to you to play it how you like.
Some owners would hate to blow a high draft pick on a player who's only going to play half a season, but there's also going to be some owner who's drafting around 30th who's thinking "I hope everyone ignores that guy."

So I took the "right" pitcher, and lo and behold, first game, guess what happened?

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=10486539

We have some bad news: Norman Denney at the Rookie level will be out about 70 HBD days stemming from his recent injury [Shoulder, sprained

Hopefully you have $20M in medical. Still a good pick.

Posted by bdrose on 4/30/2020 10:16:00 AM (view original):
Wow, OK, that helps. There's also a super-stud Catcher, with great hitting and fielding, but a durability low enough to limit him to 300 or so AB.

Yeah DUR is overrated. Ask yourself which player on the draft board will help you most in a playoff elimination game and take him. Louis Graham was a C that topped out at 33 DUR but had God-tier hitting ratings. If I saw him in a draft I'd have no hesitation taking him #1 overall assuming there were no other potential HoFers in the draft. (Though he was a 2x DITR if I remember right)

I see so many 80-90 OVR players who have 100 DUR but meh hitting ratings go top 5 when they should be going late 1st round.

Durability figures hugely into Overall rating. Try this: take your prospect hitters and sort them according to your favorite hitting rating. (eg vsR). Go down the Overall column and find the top-50 Overall players who drop way down the board. Except for the rare superb defender, you know right away those are the ones with 85-90 DUR. They can play 160 games but won't hit well at the major league level. They end up in Rule 5.

Posted by brianplath on 5/7/2020 1:29:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bdrose on 4/30/2020 10:16:00 AM (view original):
Wow, OK, that helps. There's also a super-stud Catcher, with great hitting and fielding, but a durability low enough to limit him to 300 or so AB.

Yeah DUR is overrated. Ask yourself which player on the draft board will help you most in a playoff elimination game and take him. Louis Graham was a C that topped out at 33 DUR but had God-tier hitting ratings. If I saw him in a draft I'd have no hesitation taking him #1 overall assuming there were no other potential HoFers in the draft. (Though he was a 2x DITR if I remember right)

I see so many 80-90 OVR players who have 100 DUR but meh hitting ratings go top 5 when they should be going late 1st round.

That's a great example. Guys with meh hitting ratings are easy to find too, guys with those ratings are very rare. PLUS, he never had to pay over $2mil a year for him lol, what a steal.