All fair points. And again, no experience yet at the highest level. But I wouldn't jump in late to battle an A+ team to begin with. Now if you came in late as the A+, then decisions need to be made of course. I do not know your methods (whether you unload immediately and mark your territory, or if you wait and see what unfolds across the land).

But my point is, I just don't see EVERY D1 coach at a big 6 level doing 20 HV only. People just think different. There's nothing that can be done about that. Maybe thinking that way is dead wrong. I do not know.

But another question.... is this A+++ theory that big of an impact? Would a A++ team roll with you after 18 HV? Would an A+ roll with you? Would an A- roll with you? I don't know how real this ++++++++ theory is

Posted by Trentonjoe on 6/7/2020 9:41:00 AM (view original):
The guy who dropped the bomb almost certainly when 20/1. If you only go 16/1 you may not even be at high. Maybe you are, maybe you aren’t, but I would spend the $800 to give yourself a higher probability of even having a chance.

i don't know about this. i pretty quickly moved to what i thought was the high end of the AP value range at 50:1 ap:hv, and i more or less take it as a given that AP are worth significantly more. also, CV and promises (at least starts) are worth a *lot*. when you consider a maxed out player with a solid amount of ap, versus a guy with 4-5 fewer HVs... how much difference are those 4-5 HVs really making? the % of money you are spending is massively lower than the % of effort you are getting.

i am still pretty unclear on how steep the curve is for % of effort vs % odds of winning, but it definitely feels like you need a pretty good disparity on effort to earn a pretty good disparity on odds. i don't think 10% more effort yields much better than 10% more odds. i do think the needle starts to move faster - the 'advantage for being ahead' grows as you get more and more ahead. so it perhaps depends on where you are in the curve - if 5% more effort gave you 10% more odds, and the HVs were 10% more effort for 20% more money, it would be pretty balanced. but if 5% more effort is like, 7% better odds, it sounds like a raw deal, unless this is your top priority player or whatever.

i'm not advocating for withholding those last couple/handful of hv on the regular, but i definitely think the trade off of those hv for having a shot at another player is worth it in some situations.