Y'all owe me. This took me like 2 hours of searching the forums but I think I found the thread gil has been talking about:
https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=483423
It's not a "dog" though - it's a possum (I know someone in another thread mentioned the person who posted the study was an "animal" username).
Full post:
I ran an Excel macro to pull data on some past rosters. I specifically looked at players whose first season in Crum was Season 67 (the first season they started tracking starting ratings and ending ratings). The data set includes 2,466 players. To clarify the table the columns show the number of players with ratings growth in each range listed on the far left (so 1,090 of the 2,466 players I pulled data on had an increase in athleticism ranging from 0 to 6 points, etc, etc.,) the "minimum"and "maximum" rows show the highest and lowest growth in each category and the "average" row is the average increase of all players in this grouping.
I didn't include it in the chart below but there were 16 players who showed overall increases of 300 points or better over their careers. 11 of those 16 were five-year players. The greatest increase was 364 points. The greatest increase for a four-year player was 339 points and the average player increased by 158.7 points.
| |
# of Players |
| Rat. Growth |
Ath |
Spd |
Reb |
Def |
Blk |
LP |
Per |
BH |
Pa |
WE |
St |
Du |
| Negative |
26 |
23 |
99 |
12 |
10 |
254 |
250 |
188 |
64 |
182 |
204 |
0 |
| 0 to 6 |
1090 |
954 |
1124 |
594 |
1290 |
1173 |
1108 |
940 |
1021 |
273 |
489 |
629 |
| 7 to 13 |
526 |
413 |
364 |
499 |
400 |
182 |
162 |
404 |
390 |
577 |
596 |
424 |
| 14 to 20 |
423 |
435 |
295 |
490 |
334 |
159 |
163 |
304 |
336 |
683 |
560 |
494 |
| 21 to 27 |
241 |
327 |
271 |
404 |
248 |
161 |
205 |
283 |
289 |
518 |
355 |
449 |
| 28 to 40 |
158 |
292 |
275 |
415 |
179 |
252 |
285 |
263 |
271 |
233 |
252 |
410 |
| 41 to 50 |
2 |
22 |
37 |
50 |
5 |
141 |
138 |
77 |
83 |
0 |
10 |
53 |
| 51 to 60 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
90 |
87 |
7 |
11 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
| 61 to 70 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
38 |
45 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
| 71 to 80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
21 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 81 to 90 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| TOTALS |
2466 |
2466 |
2466 |
2466 |
2466 |
2466 |
2466 |
2466 |
2466 |
2466 |
2466 |
2466 |
| Minimum |
-6 |
-4 |
-20 |
-29 |
-23 |
-42 |
-17 |
-18 |
-6 |
-51 |
-13 |
0 |
| Maximum |
42 |
46 |
51 |
52 |
45 |
82 |
84 |
53 |
62 |
36 |
50 |
62 |
| Average |
10.5 |
13 |
11.3 |
16.5 |
10.1 |
13.2 |
14.2 |
12.1 |
13 |
14.6 |
13.5 |
16.7 |
6/11/2020 10:04 AM (edited)