Since I started this game, I always said I would quit if I ever lost to a 16 seed as a 1 seed. Well it happened a few years ago and I'm still here. Point is.......it sucks...really bad. But this game will still bring you joy, you'll forget about it. Just take pride in being the answer to a trivia question and go win it next year!

“shoe likes to say FUWIS when this happens - i like to assume it was me and go from there. i have to make this point again, for this thread but also for toppdogg and whoever else (also re: a different thread). there are simply too many runs of too many NT wins to think the opposite. when i came up i assumed this game was like real life - the best team rarely won, and that was just how it was. it was rail's 8/9 that proved to me i was wrong (and a couple others) - if he was even 25% to win each of those years, that run would be ridiculous unlikely. even at 50% to win each year, his run is a little under 2% odds, if my mental math is right (1/(2^9/9)?). you don't need luck to win with ridiculous frequency. you can use cjwalden's ozarks run or my kansas run and/or other random selections from the top dozen of the game's all time great runs, it doesn't matter. the conclusion is the same. and to my friend dogg - i don't agree i give the community too little credit. you give them too much. 95% of NT teams, as a floor, are not within 2-3 points of their optimal setup. there may not be a single team in all the worlds that is within 1 point. even almost all NC winning teams aren't even close to optimized, when i was really active, almost every NC winning team i saw, i could rip to shreds in 10 minutes. it would take 5 pages just to touch on all the mistakes.”

Lol, saying FUWIS is essentially the same as saying “you got simmed”, just with a little different flavor.

Now in this case, there is certainly something SB can take away from the loss, as has been noted multiple times already. He still wins that game probably at least 19 times out of 20. You don’t need “five pages” to touch on his mistake. Don’t run uptempo press with 11 players, unless you have ungodly stamina. But do we know he wouldn’t be upset if he had run normal? Of course we don’t. Sometimes heavily favored teams lose because the opponent just shoots an abnormally high percentage in the limited set of FGA in a single game, or because your 72% FT shooting team goes something stupid like 10-24. To guard against that, lots of coaches use uptempo to increase possessions, and mitigate the risk of “getting simmed” with a larger sample size. Would I have run uptempo? Not with 11, and <80 team stamina. But sometimes you get simmed anyway.

Sportsbulls first 65 seasons have been about as good as anyone’s last 65 seasons. I suspect his career will end up comparing very favorably to the likes of rails, cwaldenj and gillespie (not that comparing coach accomplishments between the *very different* versions of the game will end up a fruitful discussion).

i know what you meant, and i agree you just get simmed sometimes. its really hard to distinguish between the two (messing up and getting sim'd - often both, but to what degree?). i was just kinda using that as a segue to the topic i wanted to talk about anyway :) most of that wasn't intended to be directed to you, just kinda trying to tether my rambling to something!

Let me pose an argument for using uptempo in this scenerio. I think we can all agree that I probably should have shot more than the FG% I did, and that I should have had dominated the turnover battle. So this had to do with smaller sample size.

Actually, I just started writing this then realized we had 2 tired's amomng other fatigue, which is bad and had to do with the result. So I probably should not have run uptempo and lesson learned, lol.

Posted by Sportsbulls on 6/21/2020 2:45:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gillispie1 on 6/21/2020 2:04:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Sportsbulls on 6/21/2020 1:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by kcsundevil on 6/21/2020 11:28:00 AM (view original):
#1 seed Virginia didn't whine when they lost by 20 to UMBC. They tipped their caps to the winners, got back to work, and won the natty the following season.

I’ve had losses that have stung way more. I just thought I’d take this one to the forums because the odds of him winning this one had to be pretty close to 0. Gillispie, you brought up cjwalden’s run, he’s one of my closest “HD friends.” kcsundevilds, right after the game after saying “I hate this game” I said to him “what can I take away from this season?”

thats a good approach! you have accomplished a lot in a short time as someone said, so apparently you already know that :) i tend to agree with you, i've lost a couple 1v64 games (literally - two), they aren't fun, but neither of those teams was particularly great. it definitely sucks for a while but if you can rationalize as 'well we'd probably have lost in a couple games anyway' it helps. the worst ones for me are those e8/f4 losses that probably cost a championship.

I'd normally agree. This was a genuine down season for us, like I expected S16 or E8 (last two seasons we were title favorites by a solid margin, we won one and lost the other in the S16, more on that later), but D3 Tark was so bad this year we were favorites in all of the people's minds that I talked to. Here are the remaining contenders to show you how bad it is this season: Dallas, Menlo, Whitman, Pomona, Dickinson, CUA, Methodist, Wittenberg, Albright, and California Tech.

Yeah this year is miserable. Idk what happened to create this total talent vacuum in DIII.

Posted by Sportsbulls on 6/21/2020 3:35:00 PM (view original):
Let me pose an argument for using uptempo in this scenerio. I think we can all agree that I probably should have shot more than the FG% I did, and that I should have had dominated the turnover battle. So this had to do with smaller sample size.

Actually, I just started writing this then realized we had 2 tired's amomng other fatigue, which is bad and had to do with the result. So I probably should not have run uptempo and lesson learned, lol.

2 tireds lol :) your team was wrecked all game! fatigue wise. i mean that amount of fatigue is easily 10ppg off of the base case (green / blue). you have to be paying a way smaller premium than that for your press. press is amazing, don't get me wrong, but seble really put it in balance (IMO) when he adjusted up the fatigue/fouls... well, eventually, after a few months of total chaos where he over adjusted.

long story short, these are the edge cases that champion press teams must plan for. its too high of a probability you will encounter significant foul trouble at some point and you have to basically be able to pretty well tolerate it. granted - your PG ran into more than significant foul trouble! its pretty hard to tolerate that. still, you definitely hope to tolerate that better with the best teams (i also am curious to see your depth chart, kinda wondering if you had enough cross pollination there, i am a little bit skeptical based on glancing through your pbp - i didn't look closely - would rather be lazy and ask!).

just to kind be clear - when you start getting into the barely #1 in a world team range, its sort of where you really need to start considering this stuff more. until then, you can mostly just focus on optimizing your average case. typically there's a pack of teams at the top - with anywhere from 0 to 2 teams above it. if you are in the pack, you are still on average case optimization stuff. you really have to work on the edge cases as you get into the echelons of teams above that - there's at least 3 echelons of teams above the pack, and each step up, the edge cases become dramatically more important. you really can't hope to build historically great press teams without a 12 deep, even rotation (7-8 for the 1-3, 4-5 bigs).

Posted by cubcub113 on 6/21/2020 4:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Sportsbulls on 6/21/2020 2:45:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gillispie1 on 6/21/2020 2:04:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Sportsbulls on 6/21/2020 1:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by kcsundevil on 6/21/2020 11:28:00 AM (view original):
#1 seed Virginia didn't whine when they lost by 20 to UMBC. They tipped their caps to the winners, got back to work, and won the natty the following season.

I’ve had losses that have stung way more. I just thought I’d take this one to the forums because the odds of him winning this one had to be pretty close to 0. Gillispie, you brought up cjwalden’s run, he’s one of my closest “HD friends.” kcsundevilds, right after the game after saying “I hate this game” I said to him “what can I take away from this season?”

thats a good approach! you have accomplished a lot in a short time as someone said, so apparently you already know that :) i tend to agree with you, i've lost a couple 1v64 games (literally - two), they aren't fun, but neither of those teams was particularly great. it definitely sucks for a while but if you can rationalize as 'well we'd probably have lost in a couple games anyway' it helps. the worst ones for me are those e8/f4 losses that probably cost a championship.

I'd normally agree. This was a genuine down season for us, like I expected S16 or E8 (last two seasons we were title favorites by a solid margin, we won one and lost the other in the S16, more on that later), but D3 Tark was so bad this year we were favorites in all of the people's minds that I talked to. Here are the remaining contenders to show you how bad it is this season: Dallas, Menlo, Whitman, Pomona, Dickinson, CUA, Methodist, Wittenberg, Albright, and California Tech.

Yeah this year is miserable. Idk what happened to create this total talent vacuum in DIII.

it is crazy to me that those are all considered bad teams :) i don't mean bad but, bad for top end teams. when i played a lot of d3, in 1.0, 650 was roughly the mark of a d2 title team. i know overall rating is a terrible measure but, i think y'all know what i mean! some of these guys who make it to d3 are insane for old d2 title teams, if i try to say it a less stupid way...

gil: "...long story short..."


i'll take the over :-)

Posted by oldave on 6/22/2020 2:29:00 PM (view original):
gil: "...long story short..."


i'll take the over :-)

If only they hadn't gotten rid of whatifsportsbook...

Posted by oldave on 6/22/2020 2:29:00 PM (view original):
gil: "...long story short..."


i'll take the over :-)

hehe, yeah ok i deserve that one!

The craziest thing, which I was thinking about recently (this is just totally random, I know it's not something about the game), is that I feel like I've had 5 genuinely bad NT upsets, and 4/5 have been at Millsaps, and I've only been out of a rebuild there for 9 seasons.