Inspired by Nick_Bennet's "The Phelam Report" and cubcub's "The Wooden Report," I've decided to bring my perspective to the upcoming D1 Rupp Season 119! This report is going to be far more "data-driven" than the Phelam or Wooden versions, so you will get essentially no editorializing from me. However, the Rupp Report should be more comprehensive across the D1 landscape, so we're gonna trade off quality of analysis with quantity!

First we'll look at my Preseason Top 40 teams in D1 Rupp. This is mostly the same group of teams we see in WIS HD's preseason rankings (Top 25 + the 15 "OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES" teams), though my ranking seems to be more kind towards teams from mid-major or low-major conferences. I LOVE Alabama's team this season, and I have that as absolutely my top team with the best chance to win the NC. Michigan, UConn and UCLA also have decent chances to win it all as well, but it drops off quite a bit from there, and after #21 Arizona I really don't see any teams that I would say have any shot at all to win the championship:

Rank	ltfuller Preseason Rankings	Conference	ltfuller "Points"	WIS HD Preseason Rankings
1	Alabama	SEC	2,567	3
2	Michigan	Big 10	1,783	2
3	UConn	Big East	1,782	7
4	UCLA	PAC 10	1,505	1
5	Duke	ACC	1,377	6
6	North Carolina	ACC	1,289	8
7	Penn State	Big 10	1,288	9
8	Long Beach State	Big West	1,282	11
9	Kansas	Big 12	1,262	21
10	Kentucky	SEC	1,256	26
11	Florida	SEC	1,240	5
12	Texas	Big 12	1,167	20
13	Indiana	Big 10	1,098	23
14	Cincinnati	Big East	1,086	14
15	New Mexico	MWC	1,079	NR
16	Washington State	PAC 10	1,064	18
17	Tulsa	CUSA	1,064	16
18	UTEP	CUSA	1,062	NR
19	Syracuse	Big East	988	4
20	Louisville	Big East	984	19
21	Arizona	PAC 10	977	10
22	Kansas State	Big 12	932	12
23	Tulane	CUSA	919	NR
24	Nevada	WCC	896	NR
25	Clemson	ACC	858	39
26	Xavier	A10	844	NR
27	Lamar	Southland	837	29
28	Oregon State	PAC 10	812	NR
29	Arkansas	SEC	810	27
30	Notre Dame	Big 10	801	30
31	Oklahoma	Big 12	782	NR
32	Vermont	Patriot	762	38
33	Purdue	Big 10	752	32
34	Virginia	ACC	742	36
35	Fresno State	PAC 10	731	28
36	Stanford	PAC 10	727	25
37	Colorado	Big 12	727	17
38	Penn	Ivy	694	NR
39	Sam Houston State	Southland	670	22
40	Pittsburgh	Big East	669	31
NR	Illinois	Big 10	NR	13
NR	Wisconsin	Big 10	NR	15
NR	Maryland	ACC	NR	24
NR	Michigan State	Big 10	NR	33
NR	Texas Christian	MWC	NR	34
NR	Louisiana State	SEC	NR	35
NR	Air Force	MWC	NR	37
NR	South Carolina	SEC	NR	40

Next we'll look at my predictions for Conference Regular Season champions! If I felt like there were a few teams that had a good shot of being the champ/co-champ, I added them, but ordering the teams by the ones I felt had the best chance.

Conference	Division	Winner(s)
ACC	North	Duke / North Carolina
ACC	South	Clemson
Big 10	East	Michigan
Big 10	West	Penn State / Indiana
Big 12	North	Kansas
Big 12	South	Texas
Big East	East	UConn
Big East	West	Louisville / Cincinnati
PAC 10	North	Washington State
PAC 10	South	UCLA
SEC	East	Florida / Kentucky
SEC	West	Alabama
A10	East	Charlotte
A10	West	Xavier
Big Sky	North	Eastern Washington
Big Sky	South	Jackson State / Prairie View A&M
Big South	East	VMI / Liberty
Big South	West	UNC Asheville / Mississippi Valley St.
Big West	East	Pacific
Big West	West	Long Beach State
CAA	North	Drexel
CAA	South	Old Dominion
CUSA	East	Central Florida
CUSA	West	UTEP / Tulsa / Tulane
Horizon	North	Butler
Horizon	South	Milwaukee
Ivy	East	Columbia
Ivy	West	Penn
MAC	East	Miami (OH)
MAC	West	Ball State
MEAC	East	South Carolina State
MEAC	West	North Carolina A&T
Metro	North	Iona
Metro	South	Siena
MVC	East	Bradley
MVC	West	Gardner-Webb
MWC	East	New Mexico
MWC	West	North Texas / Air Force
NEC	East	C. Connecticut State
NEC	West	Mount St. Mary's
OVC	North	Morehead State / Eastern Kentucky / SE Missouri State
OVC	South	Arkansas Pine Bluff
Patriot	East	American U. / Lehigh
Patriot	West	Vermont
SL	North	UMKC
SL	South	Oral Roberts
Southern	North	UNC Greensboro / Chattanooga
Southern	South	Georgia Southern
Southland	North	McNeese State
Southland	South	Lamar
Sun Belt	North	Florida Atlantic
Sun Belt	South	South Alabama
WCC	North	San Francisco
WCC	South	Nevada

Here are my predictions for Conference Tournament Champions. Again, if I felt like it might be really close for the championship, I added more teams. These don't look too terribly different from the Regular Season champ predictions, but I've added my prediction on whether or not a team is likely to miss the NT if they don't win the CT. Think of this as my prediction for which conferences probably won't have any at-large bids unless there is an upset in the CT:

Conference	CT Winner	Must Win CT to Make NT?
ACC	North Carolina / Duke
Big 10	Michigan
Big 12	Kansas
Big East	UConn
PAC 10	UCLA
SEC	Alabama
A10	Xavier
Big Sky	Eastern Washington
Big South	VMI / Liberty	Yes to both
Big West	Long Beach State
CAA	Old Dominion	Yes
CUSA	UTEP / Tulsa / Tulane
Horizon	Milwaukee	Yes
Ivy	Columbia / Penn
MAC	Ball State	Yes
MEAC	South Carolina State
Metro	Siena
MVC	Bradley
MWC	New Mexico
NEC	Mount St. Mary's
OVC	Arkansas Pine Bluff
Patriot	Vermont
SL	UMKC
Southern	Georgia Southern	Yes
Southland	Lamar
Sun Belt	South Alabama	Yes
WCC	Nevada

Here are just some other interesting things to note. Below are my rankings for Top 25 Strength of Schedules, the Top 25 teams that I think are most likely on the bubble to make the National Tournament, and my Bottom 25 teams in D1 Rupp.

SOS Rank	Team
1	Ohio State
2	Vanderbilt
3	Indiana
4	Southern Cal
5	Washington
6	New Mexico State
7	Northwestern
8	Oregon
9	Baylor
10	Purdue
11	UC Santa Barbara
12	Mississippi State
13	Arizona
14	New Mexico
15	Louisiana State
16	Arizona State
17	Fresno State
18	Miami (FL)
19	Oral Roberts
20	Cincinnati
21	Penn State
22	Stetson
23	Providence
24	Oregon State
25	Louisville

Bubble Rank	Team
1	Colorado
2	Air Force
3	Pacific
4	San Diego State
5	Florida State
6	Texas Christian
7	Texas A&M
8	Lehigh
9	Maryland
10	New Mexico State
11	Wisconsin
12	Stetson
13	Georgia
14	American U.
15	Georgetown
16	Brown
17	UNLV
18	McNeese State
19	Cal
20	Washington
21	South Carolina
22	Ohio State
23	Mississippi State
24	Mississippi
25	UC Santa Barbara

Bottom Rank	Conference	Division	Team
324	CUSA	East	Memphis
323	Horizon	North	Cleveland State
322	MAC	East	Bowling Green
321	Southern	North	Appalachian State
320	Big East	East	St. John's
319	Southern	South	The Citadel
318	Metro	North	Albany
317	WCC	North	Portland
316	WCC	North	Pepperdine
315	MAC	East	Akron
314	SL	North	Campbell
313	NEC	West	Stony Brook
312	Patriot	East	Navy
311	Metro	South	Saint Peter's
310	MEAC	West	Florida A&M
309	Big South	West	Alabama State
308	CAA	South	William & Mary
307	CAA	North	Northeastern
306	Sun Belt	North	Troy
305	OVC	North	Eastern Illinois
304	Ivy	East	Princeton
303	CAA	North	Hofstra
302	CAA	North	VCU
301	Patriot	East	UMBC
300	OVC	South	Jacksonville State

Finally, I have the Top 30 Games to Watch in non-conference play, and the Top 50 Games to Watch in conference play this season. Games were selected based on the strength of the teams in the matchup, plus the likelihood that the game would be very close:


Top 30 Non-Conference Games to Watch

Date	Away Team	Home Team
6/28/2020	Syracuse	Kansas State
6/28/2020	Duke	Lamar
6/29/2020	Duke	Long Beach State
6/29/2020	New Mexico	Louisville
6/29/2020	Clemson	Fresno State
6/30/2020	Nevada	Fresno State
6/30/2020	Xavier	New Mexico
7/1/2020	Cincinnati	UTEP
7/1/2020	Long Beach State	Tulsa
7/2/2020	Kansas	New Mexico
7/2/2020	Cincinnati	Xavier
7/3/2020	Louisville	Kansas State
7/3/2020	Cincinnati	Washington State
7/3/2020	Long Beach State	Virginia
7/4/2020	Washington State	Louisville
7/4/2020	New Mexico	Long Beach State
7/4/2020	Tulane	Cincinnati
7/4/2020	Syracuse	Arkansas
7/5/2020	Cincinnati	Purdue
7/5/2020	Nevada	New Mexico
7/6/2020	Louisville	Fresno State
7/6/2020	Cincinnati	Indiana
7/6/2020	Oklahoma	Tulsa
7/7/2020	New Mexico	Tulsa
7/7/2020	Long Beach State	Washington State
7/7/2020	Syracuse	UCLA
7/7/2020	Indiana	Louisville
7/7/2020	Pittsburgh	Tulane
7/7/2020	Clemson	UTEP
7/7/2020	Texas A&M	Wisconsin

Top 50 Conference Games to Watch

Date	Conference	Away Team	Home Team
7/8/2020	SEC	Florida	Kentucky
7/9/2020	ACC	Duke	North Carolina
7/9/2020	Big 10	Indiana	Notre Dame
7/9/2020	Big 12	Colorado	Kansas State
7/9/2020	Big 12	Texas	Kansas
7/9/2020	CUSA	UTEP	Tulane
7/9/2020	PAC 10	Arizona	Fresno State
7/10/2020	PAC 10	UCLA	Arizona
7/10/2020	PAC 10	Washington State	Oregon State
7/10/2020	SEC	Kentucky	Arkansas
7/11/2020	Big East	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh
7/11/2020	CUSA	Tulsa	Tulane
7/11/2020	PAC 10	Oregon State	Fresno State
7/12/2020	Big 12	Kansas State	Texas A&M
7/12/2020	CUSA	UTEP	Tulsa
7/13/2020	Big East	Louisville	Pittsburgh
7/13/2020	Big East	Syracuse	Cincinnati
7/14/2020	Big 10	Notre Dame	Purdue
7/14/2020	Big 10	Penn State	Michigan
7/14/2020	Big 12	Oklahoma	Kansas State
7/14/2020	Big East	Syracuse	UConn
7/15/2020	Big 12	Texas	Colorado
7/15/2020	PAC 10	Arizona	Oregon State
7/15/2020	SEC	Kentucky	Florida
7/16/2020	ACC	North Carolina	Duke
7/16/2020	Big 12	Kansas State	Colorado
7/17/2020	Big East	Louisville	Cincinnati
7/18/2020	Big 10	Indiana	Penn State
7/18/2020	Big 10	Penn State	Indiana
7/18/2020	Big 12	Texas	Oklahoma
7/18/2020	PAC 10	Arizona	Stanford
7/18/2020	SEC	Alabama	Florida
7/19/2020	Big 10	Michigan	Indiana
7/19/2020	Big 12	Kansas State	Texas
7/19/2020	CUSA	Tulsa	UTEP
7/19/2020	PAC 10	Fresno State	Oregon State
7/20/2020	Big East	Cincinnati	Louisville
7/20/2020	SEC	Florida	Arkansas
7/21/2020	Big East	UConn	Syracuse
7/22/2020	Big East	Cincinnati	UConn
7/22/2020	Big East	Louisville	Syracuse
7/22/2020	CUSA	Tulane	Tulsa
7/23/2020	Big East	UConn	Louisville
7/23/2020	PAC 10	Washington State	Arizona
7/23/2020	SEC	Kentucky	Alabama
7/24/2020	Big 12	Kansas	Kansas State
7/24/2020	PAC 10	Oregon State	Stanford
7/24/2020	PAC 10	Washington State	UCLA
7/25/2020	CUSA	Tulane	UTEP
7/25/2020	PAC 10	Oregon State	Washington State