I've been involved in recent trade talks, and three pitchers have come into the picture. Considering how I'm still trying to get a handle on evaluating players without using advanced scouting projections, I'd love to know what other people think about these players' futures:

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=10206633

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=10217721

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=9398523

Thanks in advance!

Get a mentor

Not really what I was asking. I'm just trying to figure out how to evaluate prospects and am wondering which one of these guys projects to be the best pitcher and why.

Unless you are just looking to fill innings I would recommend finding higher quality additions. The last guy might have been okay with a higher vR rating. I would look for multi year data comparisons to determine what to look for. Ratings don’t always match results due to SSS, home/road splits, defense, or poor management but it will help you evaluate players.

Posted by minus55 on 7/1/2020 12:15:00 PM (view original):
Not really what I was asking. I'm just trying to figure out how to evaluate prospects and am wondering which one of these guys projects to be the best pitcher and why.

Ok. Well they all suck. Two of them are 4 year players do they will gain little after that. How they project depends on other factors like coaching, play time, etc. with no adv scouting there is no golden rule it takes time to learn it and even then is a gamble. Look at your players on your roster and see hwo they developed for ideas but remember not all players gain the same.

Ming is already in his 5th season, and he has only gained 1 point this season. So he might gain one more point over the course of his career, but I don't see much more than that.

Watson is in his 3rd season, and he is a 21 year old DITR who is developing rapidly. He could turn out to be a mediocre ML pitcher someday, but he has a long way to go. I might give him a shot, but I wouldn't give very much for him.

Callaspo is also in his 3rd season, and is a 22 year old DITR. He is not developing nearly as rapidly as Watson, but he is 7 points ahead of him at this point. I'm guessing Callaspo and Watson will end up about the same in overall rating by the time they're done developing, probably somewhere in the upper 60's to low 70's. As brianp said, they will probably all end up as good AAA pitchers.

Ming is a perfectly fine SP4-5 option right now; he won't get an ounce better. The other two are currently AAA (Callaspo) and AA (Watson) quality pitchers; they will both develop into guys who are not the very worst short-term injury replacements in history but should never spend a full season in the majors. They'd run ERAs in the low 5's in Omaha, NL.

EDIT-- good call by bj on the fact that they are both DitRs. This changes my assessment completely. Watson is in his first full season after his DitR and he has 93 Makeup, so it's a HUGE DitR; his splits have improved by 12 each and his control by 7 this season already (trade deadline). I expect him to turn into an SP3 by season 37 (it's season 35 now). Callaspo is in his second full season after the DitR, makeup is 83, and it's also a pretty big DitR; his VsR is up 8 and his VsL and control are up 6. He'll end up as a reasonable SP 4-5 by the end of next season, same as Ming is now.

The first two players are cannon fodder. Should never make the bigs. Replacement level talent. You can find better in Rule 5.

Third guy might have had a shot at an SP5 role but poor VsR makes him always a liability. You can get away with poor VsR if a pitcher is 90+ in multiple other ratings. Also he's done developing.

No, you guys have it all wrong. The help section says players develop until 27. /sarcasm