These recent years, when watching a MLB game, announcers often mention that managers do not like to steal bases with runners because they do not want to 'give up outs' rather leaving it up to the batter to advance the runner or hit him home. if a runner has a 75%+ stolen base success rate and a batter has a .250-.300 BA, isnt it logical and reasonable to figure that a runner has a better chance of advancing on his own rather than depending on the batter to move him along ? the numbers suggest at least a 50% increase in the runner being safe on his own rather than depending on the batter. What are your opinions on this ?

If you're playing for only one run your math is accurate. But with the proliferation of homers in today's game (and fewer singles) you have to be pretty damn sure you're going to be successful to make it worth the risk.

Additionally, runners largely have a 75% success rate because they're smart about when to run and they occasionally catch people off-guard. If they ran all the time, it would lose any element of surprise, pitchers would use more pitchouts (or at least fewer slow breaking pitches that make it hard for catchers to spring up and throw), and the success rate would be much lower.

Yes but if pitcher threw fewer slow breaking pitches they would give up more hits and home runs. And pitch outs give up a ball, aiding the hitter in the count.

A pitcher's time to the plate is a big factor. They are much more likely to get a green light if the pitcher is slow to the plate. Vice versa if they are fairly quick to the plate. The math doesn't lie.

Posted by italyprof on 7/10/2020 5:32:00 PM (view original):
Yes but if pitcher threw fewer slow breaking pitches they would give up more hits and home runs. And pitch outs give up a ball, aiding the hitter in the count.

...meaning that BA and OBP would go up and SB% would go down. I think the point is that the issue is much more complicated than the original poster posited. There are a lot more variables under the surface than the raw stats we can easily see.

"If you play for One Run, that's all you're going to get" -Weaver's Law