Did they tweak the programming a bit to cause players to lose power ratings points earlier than they used to? Lately, it seems like anyone over 30 is going to lose power ratings points.

I've always seen that players can start losing Power as early as age 28. Over 30 almost guaranteed unless they have super high Makeup and you run max Training budget.

Yes, they always have done so, but if you have max training that process always started later. The last couple of rollovers of my teams have brought unpleasant surprises, though, as some stalwart players with high makeup (and I am always max training) are starting to lose power at 30 or 31. That's new.

I think they made some changes behind the scenes. More injuries and random chit.

Yes, more injuries this season for most of my teams.

definitely noticing the increase in shorter injuries.

I did notice the power decrease this most recent rollover - this was the guy who stuck out. Didn't lose anything over last rollover, then lost 3 points in power. I definitely expected him to lose a point or maybe 2 being 31 without a great makeup rating, but 3 seemed a tad much. Maybe I'm overthinking lol. I will say, hasn't it been a thing where hitters ratings trailed performance? Maybe now they're just caught up more (ie. performance won't be affected).

Player Profile: Joey Conway - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

I've noticed that too. Power, range and speed. (The range is killing me) from 28 and on decrease. Some guys on 5 year deals can no longer play SS , CF or 2B and don't have a good enough bat for the corners. Oops!

I have seen some elite fielders keep their range and arm ratings past the age of 32, but they definitely start to dwindle after that. Especially with low makeup. Based on important rating losses as early as age 28, is it smarter to just let your players walk after arb3 if they are players that rely on things like power, range, arm? If players played to their current ratings, I would say yes, but I think it is more complicated than that.

I don't think players necessarily play to their current ratings. I think they play to their peak ratings over their career. So that 35 year old that is overperforming his current ratings is just playing to his peak ratings later in his career and that 22 year old that is underperforming his ratings will make up for it down the line.

Posted by tlowster on 7/13/2020 12:28:00 PM (view original):
I have seen some elite fielders keep their range and arm ratings past the age of 32, but they definitely start to dwindle after that. Especially with low makeup. Based on important rating losses as early as age 28, is it smarter to just let your players walk after arb3 if they are players that rely on things like power, range, arm? If players played to their current ratings, I would say yes, but I think it is more complicated than that.

I don't think players necessarily play to their current ratings. I think they play to their peak ratings over their career. So that 35 year old that is overperforming his current ratings is just playing to his peak ratings later in his career and that 22 year old that is underperforming his ratings will make up for it down the line.

You raise an important point which I wish we had concrete data for. I know I've seen HOF HBD players still producing late-career numbers while their actual ratings look like guys you wouldn't promote from AAA. It's the kind of thing that makes players wonder if there are "hidden ratings."

Can you point to an example?

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=8305966

My guy right now. But this is his contract year, and he's decided to go FA. He's 31 yrs old, but has a 99 Make-up rating. He lost 2 points in power at the beginning of this season, and 5 points in power over the past 3 seasons. But we're coming up on mid-season, and right now he has the highest OPS of his entire ML career. Does the fact that this is his contract year have anything to do with this?

Posted by bjschumacher on 7/14/2020 9:23:00 PM (view original):
https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=8305966

My guy right now. But this is his contract year, and he's decided to go FA. He's 31 yrs old, but has a 99 Make-up rating. He lost 2 points in power at the beginning of this season, and 5 points in power over the past 3 seasons. But we're coming up on mid-season, and right now he has the highest OPS of his entire ML career. Does the fact that this is his contract year have anything to do with this?

I don't think so because I have seen guys in a contract year poop the bed.

However, I do think that there is something to the fact that a player will reasonably play to his ratings over time. I don't expect a guy who is in his age 39 season to play to his ratings he had when he was 26, that is where the "reasonably" comes into play. I am too lazy to pull a bunch of data to prove it, so you are guys are welcome to do it, but I know that there is something to this theory. I have seen to many peaks and troughs during random seasons to think otherwise.

1. Seen guys under-perform their ratings during five of their first six seasons, then go on a tear for four straight seasons;
2. I have seen guys perform hot straight out of the gate from their rookie season until when they were supposed to be in their alleged prime (age 26), then then they tail off considerably;
3. I have seen 36 year olds have one of their best years of their career;
4. I have seen flip-flop performance where a player is pretty consistent, then all of a sudden he has a year where he is 175 points below his typical OPS, then the following season he is 175 above his typical OPS.
5. Seen guys that have a consistent pattern of performance, then have three monster years in a row, then have three down years in a row.
6. Seen guys that were consistent for nearly their entire career; etc.

So, based on the above examples, I think players play to their peak ratings over time.