With 6 preferences, an advantage in a single category means less. I had thought the same when I also thought I had the defensive set preference going the same way. I had an overall preference advantage, but it was light, spread out over 6. The bulk of my advantage was prestige. And that was enough to almost shut them out, despite spending barely over half the AP they invested. Had I gone for an average of 45 instead of 37.5, it would have probably done it. But then Stanford was potentially lurking on both my other starred targets, so...

Yeah, thanks for the lesson, I’ll eat my words and wasn’t even close, hah. Those that say prestige isn’t that meaningful, I’m confused and think this proves it, this shows you really only have to put in basically half the effort and can dominate. So it just shows unless you get lucky with recruits, it’s truly hard to rebuild a program and make them into a contender in DI

I wouldn't call it half the effort.

MAX HVs, CV, start and minutes. Pretty much ALL IN, then half the AP.

If you are rebuilding then you go all in vs B+ teams and not risk it vs A+. Then when you get to B+ you can fight the big boys.
Rebuilding in 3.0 is as easy as its ever been.

I only call AP effort l, anyone can give promised starts and minutes and basically you have to in order to be even, because everyone does, same as HV and CV in my eyes, you never just do half HV if you are fighting for a recruit. So the only effort being put in is the AP points, and when a lower teams has to spend all their AP points to even get on the board and a higher team can do half the effort and target multiple recruits is a clear advantage. Just my opinion.

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/17/2020 1:22:00 AM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 7/17/2020 12:06:00 AM (view original):
Mully gets the chicken dinner. Oregon (A+) vs Washington (C+ at time of signing). Final odds were 75-25 in favor of Oregon. Recruit chose Washington.

I thought this was an interesting case. It shows what a fringe battle looks like when both parties are heavily invested. Kind of confirms the notion that 2 full grades is a little too much for an underdog to overcome with equivalent effort. It took significant AP stacking to keep UW in the game. And even at that point, my own miscalculation prevented me from doing enough to shut them out. I had figured at around 40 AP/cycle they wouldn’t be able to get in the game against my max effort and promises. But I misinterpreted the preferences, failing to notice that despite the IQ showing the Huskies practicing press, Washington was actually *playing* zone all season; so instead of having that extra preference advantage in my pocket, UW actually got some ground back there, enough to stay in with me until the end.

Wow, prestige just isn't that meaningful. I'm right assuming this means A+ vs B+ at these numbers would be 62-38 then, right? I'm too tired to really think about whether I'm messing up my logic here.

I agree with shoe’s response. Prestige still matters but for every preference the kid has the value of prestige gets neutered a bit.

Prestige is still the single most important factor, outside of prioritization. It’s kind of an open question I guess as to whether the sheer number of preferences alone directly “neuters” prestige; if they’re all going in the same direction, then they certainly *can* neutralize prestige, especially if one of those preferences is for rebuild. But as with this case, normally what happens when there are lots of preferences is that they really only neuter each other; leaving prestige as easily the biggest factor. That was definitely the case here. I think it’s safe to say that with as little as 45 AP/cycle from Oregon, certainly at 50, UW would have been shut out. 2 full grades down, and you need significant preference advantages *and* a significantly higher prioritization to effectively battle.

What is little? 45 per cycle is over two schollies worth of effort each cycle. I don’t consider that a small amount by any means.

Posted by mullycj on 7/17/2020 10:31:00 PM (view original):
What is little? 45 per cycle is over two schollies worth of effort each cycle. I don’t consider that a small amount by any means.

It’s relative to what your opponent is investing; in this case, over 70 per cycle.

Curious what you mean by “45 per cycle is over two schollies worth of effort each cycle,” has me scratching my heading. Isn’t general consensus that scholarships are worth quite a bit more than that?

Posted by shoe3 on 7/18/2020 12:23:00 AM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 7/17/2020 10:31:00 PM (view original):
What is little? 45 per cycle is over two schollies worth of effort each cycle. I don’t consider that a small amount by any means.

It’s relative to what your opponent is investing; in this case, over 70 per cycle.

Curious what you mean by “45 per cycle is over two schollies worth of effort each cycle,” has me scratching my heading. Isn’t general consensus that scholarships are worth quite a bit more than that?

A ship is 127-130

Pretty sure he is stating an open scholarship is worth 20 attention points so 45 attention points is worth more than two open scholarships, granted one could also say 40 is only worth about one open since you automatically get 20 for free. However, I also consider 45 attention points to be relatively small, unless you have a huge prestige advantage, you’ll never control a battle with just 45 attention points per cycle.

What row said ^

He probably had a girlfriend there......