So.....more of a rant than an actual question, but I've been having some very "interesting" (read as "annoying") effects to some of my players' rating potentials immediately following exhibition games.

This past offseason, I recruited and signed a SG with a 66 rating and green potential for PE. Was really happy with the signing. Then, fast forward 1 exhibition game. There was no improvement in the 66 rating (or any other ratings), yet his potential dropped from green to blue. Obviously irks me, especially since I've seen similar things happens to other recruits/players the last couple years. I understand a certain amount of luck goes into how much these green potentials actually develop, but how does it go down without any actual improvement?!?!?

Anyway, I guess I should ask a question. Has anyone else seen this before? If so, any ideas on how to avoid this? I'd assume not, but I could just be totally overlooking a very important element of the game. Or maybe just tips for dealing with this phenomena emotionally once it does happen?

Yeah... behind the scenes ratings have an invisible after the decimal point number which increases. So you probably started out with something similar to 66.4 and now after the exhibition he's 66.5 and now is blue. so if his number indeed was 66.4 his max would be 94.5

Yep, as tdiddy said, there's really no way of knowing. I've had players start 10 in green and finish 80+ in a skill. And I've had plenty of 40 green max out at exactly 67/68 having turned blue after their first practice. It's rough but it's part of the gamble.

I forget who said it - might have been mullycj - but when recruiting you really have to assess players based on "would this guy be a keeper if he improves the bare minimum based on his potential?" While it's fun to look at black potentials and think they could go up 19/20 points or look at blue and think they could be a fraction off green and go up 27/28 points or look at a green and think "I'm gonna max this skill out by 40+!" it's better to think "OK, if this kid goes +7/8 on his blacks, +20/21 on his blues, and +27/28 on his greens will I be satisfied with him?"

I've definitely gambled and lost on a few all blue/green guys. This kid is a solid D3 PF who minned in a few skill categories. If he had maxed, he'd have been considerably better. Instead, he's just good. His black SPD went up exactly 8 points. His blue DEF went up exactly 20 points. His green PER went up 30 points, his black pass went up 7 points, and his green STA went up exactly 28 points. Two greens that kind of panned out (but not really) were his ATH (+34) and his REB (+31). His blue BLK went up +24 too which is about in the median for growth for a blue skill.

Here's what he'd look like maxed vs what I wound up with (using +7 for orange, +19 for black, +27 for blue, and an arbitrary +40 for green to explore "max"):

	Actual	Max
ATH	58	64
SPD	38	49
REB	75	84
DEF	44	51
BLK	52	57
LP	42	45
PER	45	55
BH	61	67
PASS	47	59
WE	94	94
ST	83	95
DU	55	66
FT	B-	B
Total	694	786

This season in Phelan, I had a Freshman PG drop 4 colors without improving 1 point after my first exhibition game, Athleticism Green to Blue, Blk Yellow to Red, Defense Blue to Black and BH Green to Blue. Can't really complain too much as I also have a redshirt Freshman who improved 18 in defense and 30 in Per before turning blue.

Yup. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don't. I'm typically pretty leery of blue ratings because I've had a lot of those turn black really quickly.