Posted by shoe3 on 8/9/2020 6:32:00 PM (view original):
But from a help-my-conference standpoint, if you’re not a top-100 RPI team by the end of the season, you can’t really say you’ve optimized your team’s impact, can you? Really you should aim to be at least top 50, so you’ve given your conference rivals opportunities at top 50 wins for their postseason resume. So if you use this approach, the goal is not really 10-0 in non conference, IMO, it’s get 7-8 *decent* wins non-conference.

And are we sure mully’s analysis is correct? Because the question (I thought) was how those mid season games impacted the Projection Report; but in his calculations, isn’t he focusing only on how those games affect his RPI?

My honest opinion is that mully is focusing on RPI. And he feels RPI is most important to projections. I disagree with that or the projections list would just be a 2nd rpi list. There's many more important factors

"Because the question (I thought) was how those mid season games impacted the Projection Report; but in his calculations, isn’t he focusing only on how those games affect his RPI?"

Yes - and this is where I understand top's point about the variation between RPI and Projection seeding. It's an absolute valid point. We have similar RPI's but he is 17 points ahead of me on projection due to 6 quality wins vs. my 1 quality win. The funniest irony is my victory over Top is my only "quality win" from a projection point view.

To be fair, for most of my HD career my RPI and Projection report # have always been within 5 pts of each other so I tended to just view RPI impacts. This season is an oddity with a 15 point gap between them. As Top has said, its a generally weak conference let by two top level teams that I can never beat.

Beach - could you explain how you came up with your calculation in a little more detail?

Posted by mullycj on 8/9/2020 10:00:00 PM (view original):
"Because the question (I thought) was how those mid season games impacted the Projection Report; but in his calculations, isn’t he focusing only on how those games affect his RPI?"

Yes - and this is where I understand top's point about the variation between RPI and Projection seeding. It's an absolute valid point. We have similar RPI's but he is 17 points ahead of me on projection due to 6 quality wins vs. my 1 quality win. The funniest irony is my victory over Top is my only "quality win" from a projection point view.

To be fair, for most of my HD career my RPI and Projection report # have always been within 5 pts of each other so I tended to just view RPI impacts. This season is an oddity with a 15 point gap between them. As Top has said, its a generally weak conference let by two top level teams that I can never beat.

Beach - could you explain how you came up with your calculation in a little more detail?

The math is easy enough, but I didn’t delve deeper in to the away/home win values. So we’ll call it a simplified version to show the same result.

You’re 25%

Team A or B is worth 50% (wins divided by games times .50 x 100 for the value out of 50)

Their opponents are worth 25% (Added up the wins, divided by the total games, multiplied by .25 x 100 for the value out of 25)

If I did that wrong, someone can let me know. Again I didn’t do the home and away values. That’s going too deep.

Posted by mullycj on 8/9/2020 10:00:00 PM (view original):
"Because the question (I thought) was how those mid season games impacted the Projection Report; but in his calculations, isn’t he focusing only on how those games affect his RPI?"

Yes - and this is where I understand top's point about the variation between RPI and Projection seeding. It's an absolute valid point. We have similar RPI's but he is 17 points ahead of me on projection due to 6 quality wins vs. my 1 quality win. The funniest irony is my victory over Top is my only "quality win" from a projection point view.

To be fair, for most of my HD career my RPI and Projection report # have always been within 5 pts of each other so I tended to just view RPI impacts. This season is an oddity with a 15 point gap between them. As Top has said, its a generally weak conference let by two top level teams that I can never beat.

Beach - could you explain how you came up with your calculation in a little more detail?

Regarding your RPI and projections being within 5 points of each other. While this season is an oddity.... I believe that has to do with just the difference in our styles of scheduling.

I'm going to assume, because of this topic, that you tend to schedule similarly out of habit. (Not a bad thing or wrong, just your style and approach). If your goal is to leave non con with 7+ victories and we'll say a "mild" SOS, you're likely going to end up with the same results over and over. Creating similar outcomes (rpi and projections being within 5 of each other)

My style and approach is not that. Pending the team, I aim for SOS 1 every time. Sometimes i come out 10-0 and have a dominant season and I'm 1/1/1. Other times I might be 3-7 with 10/4/35. With the 35 being my projection number. But in those circumstances, I may end up 16-0 in conference and it brings my numbers up to 3/8/12.

Of course those are random numbers. But my point is that the difference in approach taken by the two of us, creates different paths.