Here's a graph showing what I mean. From 50 to 90, the # of players leaving early is pretty flat.

Another graph including FR and Inel Srs - here

Posted by cubcub113 on 10/12/2020 5:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 10/12/2020 11:39:00 AM (view original):
Mark Graziani started his soph season “likely staying” at something like #32. He’s currently sitting at #41, which is about where I wanted him. He has some black growth in speed, rebounding, block, perimeter, and passing, so I have his development focused mostly on FT, with a little in conditioning, the rest just on maintenance (zeroed out perimeter with that high WE). My assumption is that being too close to the cusp of the first round, where sophs start moving to “on the fence,” will put him at risk of leaving. If this was my Oregon team, with just one graduating senior, I probably wouldn’t sweat it, and would let him advance, because there will be no keeping him out of the first round next season anyway. But on this team, losing 4 seniors, it’s important that I keep him around another year.

Okay so a SO #32 has a 36.5% chance of going and #41 has a 24.7% chance of going. This is a juicy place to drop guys on the big board for sure. But why the hell stop at 41? 9 more spots to 50 and he has a 17.3% chance to leave!

JR60 to JR90 is 3.3 times as many spots and only lowers the chance from 43.4% to 31.3%, a similar change.

8.5.1

8.5.1

Well for starters, it’s not like I’m stopping. This was just where I wanted to get him, down past 40. At that point, I’m no longer worried about him slipping into the first round if a bunch of likely going guys decline. I don’t think he’ll get to 50, but he might move back a few more spots.

The only way to get him down 20 slots would have been to zero out, from the start, the attributes with growth left that make him a good forward - conditioning and rebounding. And I’m not that deep into this approach. I want him to keep moving forward, just at a slower pace, and in ways that don’t increase his draft stock this year. I don’t want to make him worse, I’m just ok with letting other guys pass him up this year, to give myself better odds of keeping him around for next season, when he’ll be absolutely vital to keeping my team afloat.

I do operate under the assumption that players have *slight* differences within ranges (on the fence, likely staying, etc); but the big jumps you see I think are probably explained by players closer to the cusps being bumped up into higher categories on draft day when higher ranked players stay. So I think there is quite a bit of value in keeping a soph well away from the first round, but less value in trying hard to drop him much farther, especially if I really have to give up a lot of value from him as a player this year.

I tried to hold these guys back - but St Johns in Iba just lost

Tim Ryan - #77 on the big board - likely staying SOPH - gone EE

David Brown - not on the big board - but had been on it earlier - probably say #105 - JR - gone EE from off the board

A pair of unlikely events, contrary to the indications of the big board turn next season from optimism into a struggle......

Question while on this topic: Do any SRs get drafted who's off the draft board? Mostly just curious, but it could have some sort of impact on how many EEs decide to go. I've had some really good SRs in the past who were not on the draft board, but I always look to see if they were drafted. Thanks in advance.

Posted by mamxet on 10/15/2020 3:02:00 AM (view original):
I tried to hold these guys back - but St Johns in Iba just lost

Tim Ryan - #77 on the big board - likely staying SOPH - gone EE

David Brown - not on the big board - but had been on it earlier - probably say #105 - JR - gone EE from off the board

A pair of unlikely events, contrary to the indications of the big board turn next season from optimism into a struggle......

Ouch, that’s ridiculous. One of the worst feelings in this game:

Posted by mamxet on 10/15/2020 3:02:00 AM (view original):
I tried to hold these guys back - but St Johns in Iba just lost

Tim Ryan - #77 on the big board - likely staying SOPH - gone EE

David Brown - not on the big board - but had been on it earlier - probably say #105 - JR - gone EE from off the board

A pair of unlikely events, contrary to the indications of the big board turn next season from optimism into a struggle......

It’s good to talk about these examples too, because there’s definitely a downside to the approach. When you hold a player back, you give up *some* value on the player he could have been for you at the end of the season had you optimized completely, especially if you’re holding back in key positional areas. When you end up losing him anyway, it really hurts. Risk/reward.

I have a tough call with Phillip Fleet this year. I’ve already given up quite a bit to keep him off the board as a junior. He starts this year with a couple points of growth left in defense, block, and stamina; 15 points in passing, 20 in ballhandling, and 28+ in LP. He could rocket up the Big Board, move up slightly, stay about the same, or even drop a little, depending on how I play it. Because I want Oregon to contend this year, and I’m only losing 2 seniors (and theoretically I could hold one back and redshirt in case Fleet leaves, if I really wanted to) with one other early entry soph on the board, I’m not really considering dropping him or even holding him steady, the question is whether I turn him loose, or try to slowly move him ahead, but still projected out of the first round to play better odds for a senior season. I’m leaning toward turning him loose right now, because making him the best scorer he can be *this year* will really help my team win this year.

ETA - Fleet is pre-season #59, his teammate is #66 as a soph.

Posted by mtnwild on 10/16/2020 5:21:00 PM (view original):
Question while on this topic: Do any SRs get drafted who's off the draft board? Mostly just curious, but it could have some sort of impact on how many EEs decide to go. I've had some really good SRs in the past who were not on the draft board, but I always look to see if they were drafted. Thanks in advance.

Yes, it does happen. At least we can assume it happens. The tricky part is that we don’t see the last version of the Big Board the draft actually runs from; the last time it’s visibly updated is sometime early in the NT, I think, maybe after the first round? Not exactly sure. But we know postseason awards and tournament results also affect the draft, so the assumption is that there is a final, unpublished version of the board that is produced after the championship game runs, which the draft runs off of. Or if you don’t like thinking about there being an unpublished version of the Big Board - some folks don’t - just think of it like there’s a final adjustment of the rankings that we don’t see. That final adjustment is what explains why your player was taken #53, ahead of some players who actually were on the last version of the Big Board we saw (if I recall correctly, I didn’t save a version of that last Big Board before it disappeared, but our conference chat was talking about it, there were more changes than normal at the end of the draft in Smith this year, a lot of movement, I think).

Posted by shoe3 on 10/17/2020 12:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mamxet on 10/15/2020 3:02:00 AM (view original):
I tried to hold these guys back - but St Johns in Iba just lost

Tim Ryan - #77 on the big board - likely staying SOPH - gone EE

David Brown - not on the big board - but had been on it earlier - probably say #105 - JR - gone EE from off the board

A pair of unlikely events, contrary to the indications of the big board turn next season from optimism into a struggle......

It’s good to talk about these examples too, because there’s definitely a downside to the approach. When you hold a player back, you give up *some* value on the player he could have been for you at the end of the season had you optimized completely, especially if you’re holding back in key positional areas. When you end up losing him anyway, it really hurts. Risk/reward.

I have a tough call with Phillip Fleet this year. I’ve already given up quite a bit to keep him off the board as a junior. He starts this year with a couple points of growth left in defense, block, and stamina; 15 points in passing, 20 in ballhandling, and 28+ in LP. He could rocket up the Big Board, move up slightly, stay about the same, or even drop a little, depending on how I play it. Because I want Oregon to contend this year, and I’m only losing 2 seniors (and theoretically I could hold one back and redshirt in case Fleet leaves, if I really wanted to) with one other early entry soph on the board, I’m not really considering dropping him or even holding him steady, the question is whether I turn him loose, or try to slowly move him ahead, but still projected out of the first round to play better odds for a senior season. I’m leaning toward turning him loose right now, because making him the best scorer he can be *this year* will really help my team win this year.

ETA - Fleet is pre-season #59, his teammate is #66 as a soph.

**Update**

After 2 exhibitions and the first non conference game, Fleet is up 3 points in LP, one each in BH and pass, and 6 positions to #53 on the BB. This team will need his scoring to seriously contend, but I’m still going to have to take a hard look at where he is when he gets to #40 or so on the board.

Posted by cubcub113 on 10/9/2020 3:02:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 10/9/2020 2:39:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 10/9/2020 2:35:00 PM (view original):
Some years there will be more guys off the big board than others. I have a sheet to model this I posted that never really gained much traction. Iba teams will lose an average of 4.2 combined players off the big board this year, be careful guys!

4! Really??

The most I've ever seen from one world is two.

25 sr.
32 jr.
34 so.
9 fr.

For Iba.

Compare this to the more normal Wooden big board:
40 sr
33 jr
19 so
4 fr

or Allen

35 sr
27 jr
28 so
10 fr

8.5.1

Bumping this as a reminder to see how many EEs from off the board happen in Iba. I did my part with 5 EEs.

Posted by davefilby on 10/20/2020 5:41:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 10/9/2020 3:02:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 10/9/2020 2:39:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 10/9/2020 2:35:00 PM (view original):
Some years there will be more guys off the big board than others. I have a sheet to model this I posted that never really gained much traction. Iba teams will lose an average of 4.2 combined players off the big board this year, be careful guys!

4! Really??

The most I've ever seen from one world is two.

25 sr.
32 jr.
34 so.
9 fr.

For Iba.

Compare this to the more normal Wooden big board:
40 sr
33 jr
19 so
4 fr

or Allen

35 sr
27 jr
28 so
10 fr

8.5.1

Bumping this as a reminder to see how many EEs from off the board happen in Iba. I did my part with 5 EEs.

My post was misleading. 4.2 players will be DRAFTED off of the big board, including seniors. My bad. EEs should be 2 or 3.

Posted by cubcub113 on 10/20/2020 8:35:00 PM (view original):

Posted by davefilby on 10/20/2020 5:41:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 10/9/2020 3:02:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 10/9/2020 2:39:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 10/9/2020 2:35:00 PM (view original):
Some years there will be more guys off the big board than others. I have a sheet to model this I posted that never really gained much traction. Iba teams will lose an average of 4.2 combined players off the big board this year, be careful guys!

4! Really??

The most I've ever seen from one world is two.

25 sr.
32 jr.
34 so.
9 fr.

For Iba.

Compare this to the more normal Wooden big board:
40 sr
33 jr
19 so
4 fr

or Allen

35 sr
27 jr
28 so
10 fr

8.5.1

Bumping this as a reminder to see how many EEs from off the board happen in Iba. I did my part with 5 EEs.

My post was misleading. 4.2 players will be DRAFTED off of the big board, including seniors. My bad. EEs should be 2 or 3.

8.5.1

My bad. I mean’t what you said.

What were the results of Iba for off the board EEs?