Adjusted Stats Question Topic

Either this is impossible, or I am mathematically missing something with how stats are normalized. Either way, I always use SLG# as maybe my top variable when searching for players, and I could be doing it all wrong. My understanding is the sim's logic determines outcomes based on hits, homers, doubles, etc...of which I assumed SLG# would be a good representation. I must be wrong because how does this happen:

2020 Moreland .340 avg#, 6 2b#, 0 3b#, 8 hr#, .733 slg#
1924 Babe Ruth .362 avg#, 6 2b#, 1 3b#, 11 hr#, .733 slg#

higher avg + more IsoP = same slug??

what am I missing here?
10/23/2020 4:32 PM
Moreland had a darned good partial season. Comparing it to Ruth is a stretch. Ruth had a much high OBP, a far better BB to K ratio. I seriously doubt Moreland would be capable of putting up numbers similar to Ruth, even though '24 doesn't normalize well, as it was a big offensive year.
10/23/2020 5:52 PM
I agree with all of the above but my question is simply regarding the SLG# calculation. Higher averaeat with higher triple and homer rate should not lead to equivalent SLG#. As someone who uses SLG#, I'd like to figure out if that stat is miscalculated, misleading, or if I'm missing something.
10/23/2020 6:42 PM
It happens w OBP# as well. 2 players can have identical AVG# and somehow the player with more BB/100# has a lower OBP#
WHIP# and ERC# have similar flaws.
Pitcher A can have a lower OAV# & BB/9# than Pitcher B, but pitcher B can somehow have a lower WHIP#. Pitcher A & Pitcher B can have identical OAV#, BB/9#, & WHIP#. Pitcher A can have a higher HR/9# and a lower ERC#, which doesn't make sense, but it does happen occasionally....
It does make it seem like the stats used in the SIM are flawed if these flaws show up in the draft center.
10/23/2020 8:32 PM
I’m gonna guess that each stat is individually adjusted, and the components of said stat are adjusted independent of one another but don’t roll up to the derivative stat. for example, average gets adjusted, homer rate gets adjusted, and slugging gets adjusted...but slugging is not adjusted as a function of the adjusted average and homer components. I have to think about why the math works out differently this way.

This could create some real opportunity to extract value - I’ve always assumed the the hitting component of salaries are a function of OPS# or normalized runs created (which is effectively OPS by another measure). Now if the actual simulation is instead looking at the individual components to determine outcomes, then players would be mispriced.
10/23/2020 9:34 PM
Look at the decision tree for outcomes and which stats get used to determine the outcomes. The decision tree uses BB/100PA, AVG, HR/H, FLD-RRF, 3B/H, and 2B/H to determine the hit events, then adds in handedness, ballpark, and normalization against the pitcher and their own season.

The # stats in the draft center are literally just a draft aid to help you identify values at a glance and may not even be reflective of how they'll perform in the league or ballpark. Great for just identifying how they compare to a historical average player, but not great for giving info on how they'll specifically perform or how they relate to others. The normalization tool is much more valuable because you can use your own estimates for opponent season/era instead of historical average, and until a ballpark effect calculator is available (goal of mine, but a long ways out still), you can reference the charts to help with those adjustments.

But yes, SLG# is literally just the SLG stat compared to a historical average SLG line against their own respective season. Does not factor in the individual rates or their normalized variants.
10/23/2020 9:59 PM
Thanks! Looks like I need to do some recalibration. I use SLG# for the quick glance and it should be a pretty representation of what I want, but I think I need to reverse engineer my own version to be truly accurate.
10/24/2020 8:30 AM
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