Agree with most on here and I put a different thread out there on this exact topic. Fully respecting the blowout games points above, I have made a couple of observations (not with a lot of data) but over multiple teams.
When teams fell short or overachieved of what was "expected", they usually had a variance over what would seem "logical" in 2 categories (1 run games or extra innings)
- For example, 1 run games, I have never understood the significance in RL other than you are lucky. I would expect most to be around .500 but if you are 20-8, Ill bet you are also exceeding your expected Win %.
- Extra innings. When you have a good deep bullpen, you tend to Win more games in xtras. That makes sense but regardless, I would not expect to see anyone going 12-2 in 1 run games and not be exceeding Exp Pct.
Neither factor into the calculation but seem to have strong correlation to performance vs. the metric. Perhaps what was said above...simply a measure of team quality via draft.