Although I'm aware that Exp. Pct. is the percentage difference between runs scored and runs given up...What does the abbreviation stand for??? 
Also, what is the benefit of knowing this percentage???
8/23/2012 7:39 PM
I always assumed that it stood for Expected Percentage.

When your actual win percentage is lower than your expected percentage you get to complain about having bad luck.
8/24/2012 1:55 AM
I never actually looked into it in the sim, but IRL your Pythagorean win percentage is statistically a better predictor of record going forward in the season than your actual win percentage.
8/24/2012 4:15 AM
Dahsdebater is correct.  From a SIM standpoint, I put no stock in the Exp. PCT.   It is largely driven by runs scored and allowed, and those odd ball blowout games against weak teams that end up 17-0 and so forth really knock the value of the pythagorean out of whack, in my opinion.   
8/24/2012 2:34 PM
redwingscup, As I stated, it's ALL about runs scored vs runs allowed. (Not just "Largely driven", but ALL, totally...) 

I made NO mention what-so-ever of how much stock we ought to put in it. My question was WHAT does the abbreviation stand for, and what benefit do we gain by this statistic...
8/24/2012 9:55 PM
It is a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy: based on actual runs for and against, the SIM calculates how many you should have been expected to win. It tells you absolutely nothing about how your team is expected to do from that moment on. 

Of course, runs for and against is not even as good an indicator of how good a team is as it would be in football. You can lose a three game series 1-2, 2-3, 19-0, 0-1 - ask the 1960 Yankees about the World Series that year. 
8/25/2012 4:49 AM
Posted by redwingscup on 8/24/2012 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Dahsdebater is correct.  From a SIM standpoint, I put no stock in the Exp. PCT.   It is largely driven by runs scored and allowed, and those odd ball blowout games against weak teams that end up 17-0 and so forth really knock the value of the pythagorean out of whack, in my opinion.   
This is exactly right. I would further add that many 'owners' including myself employ fatigue fighting and resource gaining techniques where chosen games are designated where essential assets aren't used causing blowouts. Many also allow blowouts when playoff spots are clinched for the same reason.
8/26/2012 1:19 PM
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Posted by Ribbentrop on 11/9/2020 9:06:00 PM (view original):
So if I am Drafting Players should i look at for instance RC27 as an indicator for Batters and for pitchers specifically ERA#
https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=474014
11/10/2020 1:11 PM
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Agree with most on here and I put a different thread out there on this exact topic. Fully respecting the blowout games points above, I have made a couple of observations (not with a lot of data) but over multiple teams.

When teams fell short or overachieved of what was "expected", they usually had a variance over what would seem "logical" in 2 categories (1 run games or extra innings)
  • For example, 1 run games, I have never understood the significance in RL other than you are lucky. I would expect most to be around .500 but if you are 20-8, Ill bet you are also exceeding your expected Win %.
  • Extra innings. When you have a good deep bullpen, you tend to Win more games in xtras. That makes sense but regardless, I would not expect to see anyone going 12-2 in 1 run games and not be exceeding Exp Pct.
Neither factor into the calculation but seem to have strong correlation to performance vs. the metric. Perhaps what was said above...simply a measure of team quality via draft.
11/11/2020 7:52 AM

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