What's up with SS errors?? Topic

Just startng playing again after a near decade hiatus.

My SS (McAuliffe) has 16 errors in 38 games at SS.

In his actual season he made 17 errors in 105 games at SS.

Looking around my open league I see almost all the SS's have a lower (much lower) fielding pct. than actual.

What's the deal??
11/11/2020 6:18 PM
https://help.whatifsports.com/hc/en-us/articles/360014307091-What-is-normalization-

Here's the direct quote from site admin from the relevant 2009 update:

Normalized Fielding:

The biggest change in the update is how we handle fielding percentage. Up until this point, we have always used the raw fielding percentage (unless the player appeared in fewer than 20 games at a position).

As most of you know, fielding percentages have improved over time due to better equipment, better official scoring, better fields, etc.

We have decided to use the same method we use elsewhere to address normalized fielding, namely the Log5 algorithm. Four factors will be taken into consideration:

* Fielder's raw fielding percentage (adjusted downward if he played in fewer than 20 games at the position)
* The league average at the position for that fielder's season
* The league average at the position for the batter's season
* The league average at the position for the pitcher's season.

Each player has a "normalized" fielding percentage in the Player Search. It is based on the fielder, his league average, and the historical average at the position. This is the same way we represent our other normalized values (OPS#, ERA#, etc.)

The fielding percentage portion of the Fielding grade is now based on this normalized fielding percentage. This is also what's used in the new salary formula.
11/11/2020 9:33 PM
And here are specific examples they posted at the time:

Normalized Fielding (cont'd):

Here are a few examples:
2009 Jason Bartlett, SS: 0.962
2009 SS average: .973
Pitcher from 1957: .9609
Batter from 1887: .871
Result: 0.9419

Barlett drops because he's below the league average and because the league average of both the pitcher and hitter are lower than his season's average.

1905 Honus Wagner, SS: .935
1905 SS average: .0.931
Pitcher from 1957: .9609
Batter from 1887: .871
Result: 0.928

Wagner drops a very small amount. He's better than his league average, but the disparity between the batter's league average and the pitcher's league average is stronger, so it results in a small dip.

1905 Honus Wagner, SS: .935
1905 SS average: .0.931
Pitcher from 2005: 0.97399
Batter from 1991: 0.968765
Result: 0.9615

Wagner improves, because the league average for both the pitcher and hitter are better than his league average, and he's slightly better than the league average.
11/11/2020 9:33 PM
TL;DR - If you are in a league with a lot of deadball hitters and pitchers...then virtually every player is going to post a worse fielding percentage - perhaps much worse - than RL. This is especially true for modern players.
11/11/2020 9:34 PM
If you're in a modern progressive league, however, you will see extremely accurate stats.

From a current 1998 league:
Mike Bordick
RL: .990
SIM: .997

Omar Vizquel
RL: .993
SIM: .992

Derek Jeter
RL: .986
SIM: .984

etc, etc, etc.
11/11/2020 9:38 PM
Thanks contrarian!!

McAuliffe's normaized Fld% is .959 (469 chances)

Currently his Fld% (open league) is .933 (238 chamces, 16 errors)

To get to around a .959 Fld% with 231 more chances ... he can only make 2 more errors ... which is unlikely.

Still seems kind of messed up.

Is this effect perhaps ampilified (by a greater ratio?) as the fielding grade is lower?

Math was a long time ago, hope I expressed everything reasonably.

*I do note that '66 McAuliffe performance history in open leagues has a .959 Fld% ... right on the normalized number, Perhaps this is just an ouitlier season ... a bad outlier!
11/11/2020 10:35 PM (edited)
38 games is a small sample size

Perhaps your pitchers are producing a higher than average number of ground ball chances.

Perhaps a bit of an outlier as well...
11/11/2020 10:57 PM
Errors at short are up...the 1923 Bancroft has had issues in a few leagues. Is causing owners to second guess using C rated gloves. Might be better to give up some offense to buy a better glove...second and short get a ton of chances...
11/11/2020 11:00 PM
And McAuliffe makes his 17th error in his 40th game at SS. Maybe more to my annoyance, most of these errors seem to be costing W's.

I do have more groundball pitchers.

But this still seems absurd.
11/12/2020 1:29 PM
Fun thing here is that we can estimate his errors with this tool: https://www.whatifsports.com/mlb-l/league_averages.asp

Most of your pitchers are deadball pitchers, which is going to hurt his error rate. Using your starting pitchers here's what can be expected with an opposing hitter from 1885 (.876 FLD%), historical average (.950%), and 2011 (.971%). McAuliffe had a .964% in '66 when league average was .962.

'17 Ruth (.931%): .948/.956/.959. Over 104 games and 550 chances , that works out to 29, 24, and 22 errors, respectively.
'09 White (.925%): .947/.955/.958. Which is 29, 25, 23 errors.
'02 McGinnity (.921%): .947/.955/.958, or 29, 25, and 23 again.
'08 Burns (.928%): .947/.955/.958, again 29, 24, and 23.
'17 Anderson (.931%): .948/.956/.959, so 29, 24, and 22...

A couple of notes: the 104 games and 550 chances is based on his PH, but he's tracking for over 600 chances for you, so raw number of errors will be higher. I'd guess that you're facing a larger than average number of deadball hitters would put your expected FLD% in the upper .940s, then sprinkle a little bad luck (you're 4 errors off from being right inline with expectations through 232 chances). I'd say there's a good chance of that leveling out by seasons end.
11/12/2020 2:57 PM
Thanks just4me!

Now WIS is just mocking me.

McAuliffe just made his 18th error in 41 games at SS (FWIW that's 39 starts and he has been replaced in late innings a few times).
11/12/2020 6:10 PM
What's up with SS errors?? Topic

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