Posted by topdogggbm on 11/17/2020 9:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gillispie1 on 11/17/2020 2:53:00 PM (view original):

Posted by topdogggbm on 11/17/2020 12:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 11/17/2020 10:25:00 AM (view original):

Posted by craigaltonw on 11/16/2020 5:57:00 PM (view original):

Posted by oldwarrior on 11/16/2020 5:53:00 PM (view original):
The scholarship offer is worth more than 80 AP. If you're just looking for a Home Visit, they will be unlocked after the scholarship offer without any additional APs.

Sweet! Thanks. Roughly, how many APs is a scholarship offer worth?

125-130. use 130 so you're safe. Larger numbers are actually more safe here ;)

8.5.2

Why would "assuming" it's worth 130 instead of 120 be safer tho? If you bank on the scholarship being worth 130 AP when really it's only worth 120 AP (assumptions here)...... if the recruited needed 122 total AP to get the promises unlocked, if we assume a scholarship is 130, and we don't add any AP with it, it wont unlock. If we assume it's 120, we'll know to add a few AP to make sure it unlocks the promises because we know we need 122.

I guess that's what I meant by playing it safe. I guess to me, playing it safe means making sure it gets done for sure. Rather than safe meaning cutting it down to the last tiny lil percentage point. I always intentionally overshoot by a couple AP. Nothing worse than getting that 99% or 100% bar but it doesn't unlock

now that you are in d1 where you can unlock more cheaply and the early cycles go quickly, you'll be well served if you convert to doing the math (over the extra few AP). i know it sounds like a small deal, but its not - AP are really tight in those first 3-4 d1 cycles and getting established early is of massive importance. being 1 cycle late on 1 player can easily put your entire recruiting session in jeopardy.

i know i tend to care about details more than most folks but basically when anyone asks me about d1 recruiting the first thing i ask about is how aggressively they manage those first 3-4 cycles. that is really of incredibly high importance. when i came back to 3.0 i almost lost it trying to recruit, always being a cycle behind, its incredibly frustrating. but only because i know what its like not to be a cycle behind and so it makes me crazy where it starts cascading and its like man if only i wasnt 1 cycle late on this then i wouldn't have been 1 cycle late on that and that other dude maybe would have never got involved and then 5 cycles later this other guy probably wouldn't have fought me but i looked weak and now im just like praying for some good coin flips to bail me out. its sort of like one of those grazing blows to the family jewels where its like oh whew that wasn't so bad wait OMG YES IT IS WHAT IS HAPPENING MY LIFE IS A LIE AHHHHHHHHHHH

Gil, you're not understanding my point at all. I always do the math. Always. I aim for 100% and then I add 2 AP just to be safe. I'm not sure where everybody is not understanding what I'm saying. The only "specific" math I do not do, is "the exact amount of AP a scholarship is worth". And I don't do that math because I've been told what it is here. By you guys.

So i do the simple math that doesn't need to be drawn out on paper. If 24 AP gets me to 48%, I do a grand total of 52 AP to unlock. Did I "waste" an AP or two? Maybe. But what I didn't do was waste a cycle by getting to 99%. Now, new situation...... usually AP aren't needed to be added with a scholarship until the recruits are costing +80 AP to open the scholarship. (Based off what you guys are saying with the scholarship being 120, 125, 130, whichever it is. If 80 AP unlocks scholarship, the promises are at 40% or 41%. Simple math means just a scholarship will push those promises to 100%). In D1 I haven't been spending 80 AP on unlocking any player. It's always been cheaper. So I'm not sure why you mentioned D1.

I don't just throw AP out there and see what works. I didn't get where I'm at, as far as success, or helping the community, by just guessing and hoping. I always do the math. I'm excellent in the early cycles, and it's what allows me to compete with the elites. I'm no where close at D1 yet. But I'll get there eventually. Even tho D1 is all luck. All in, wait to see if you win or lose. Boring. (Had to dig at ya)

you talked about being a cycle behind. I'm NEVER a cycle behind. And I'm as efficient as anyone. So in my opinion, we're just speaking different languages here cuz I have no idea what you're talking about. Or what made you think that I'm not being efficient based off my comment (if that's what you were implying). The only thing my comment addressed was "the amount of AP a scholarship is worth".

i was only talking about the AP unlock in my post, not the scholarship thing. i don't exactly follow what cub is getting at with his way of looking at scholarships either.

'you talked about being a cycle behind. I'm NEVER a cycle behind. And I'm as efficient as anyone'

if you are never a cycle behind, then you haven't coached very long. more likely, you are a cycle behind pretty often and just do not realize it. most newer d1 coaches are many cycles behind for every single recruiting session, its just the way it goes.

n d2/d3 people move more slowly and you are waiting for the higher division guys to do stuff, and it takes a ton of AP to unlock scholarships, so being a cycle behind is a less central concept (this isn't a dig at you or at d2? just the way it is?). in d1 recruiting you hit full speed from the first buzzer, and being a cycle behind is a huge deal. if you unlock your scholarship or hv or just simply do actions 1 cycle after you could have and should have, it can really snowball against you big time. more so in 2.0 but definitely still in 3.0. i'm just simply giving you a heads up this may be something you should start to concern yourself with, as you get into d1. its a challenge for pretty much everyone so its not an issue of talking to you like you are a new coach who knows nothing (your other post i suppose) but more an issue of, this is just something folks transitioning into d1 should be aware of because it really takes some practice to get into the rhythm of d1 recruiting, and being very careful and deliberate in making sure you are fitting everything you possibly can into those first few cycles is a major part of the adjustment.

also what perhaps you may not realize due to still being new in d1 recruiting is that d1 is a little different in the AP unlocking, not mechanically but in actuality, because it is normal to try to unlock a guy you have a mere 1-10 ap into. for those guys, how many ap are needed based on simple math plus 'a couple ap' may not guarantee you anything. in d2/d3 its much more common to be like 100 ap into a guy and trying to figure out how to unlock him. when you are 1 ap into a guy and hes 2% or 3% in, how many ap should you put in to unlock him next cycle? your basic napkin math is going to come up short - and that's fine - you are free to care as much or as little about the details and optimization as you like. i'm simply pointing out that this is something that matters for d1 coaches, that early d1 is a game of inches. and yeah, in a game of inches, every inch can matter. its not that a single inch makes a difference every time - its that when it does - the difference can be huge.

Gil..... this is more punctuation on my post it note that you're focusing on. I don't need to share this but I don't recruit like you apparently. But I'm not "behind". It doesn't even make sense to me what you're getting at.

To be vague, my style is to place 5 AP on as many recruits as my AP will allow. With the purpose of leaving my name in places that I may bomb later, and to find out some percentages. From there, I don't slow play any recruit. That second cycle, I do the math and unlock 1 2 or 3 guys even, depending on what my AP allows. How can I be behind when I have just as many players unlocked as anyone else? Just after two cycles? And it continues the 3rd 4th and 5th and beyond.

If this isn't the way you recruit, and you choose to slow play and just keep say 20 AP on multiple recruits until they all unlock a few cycles later (then narrowing down to 3 AP on that last cycle if that's what it took to unlock), that just isn't my style. But no matter what my style is or your style is, stop telling me I'm behind! Only so much can be done with AP. There's not some magic gil button that gets greater power from your approach. AP are AP dude.

And honestly as far as AP, D1 and D2 aren't different. Once you're built up at D2, your not spending +100 AP on recruits unless you're chasing players you're not likely to sign, or players with absolutely terrible preferences. But if you're an A+ at D2 and being smart and going after players with good talent and good preferences, it's not much difference. Maybe if it's taking 41 AP in D1 to unlock recruits, in D2 it's taking 63 AP. I agree that's a big difference in numbers, sure. But it's a far cry from spending 100+.

This discussion is getting on my nerves. There's plenty of things I don't know about D1 in my short tenure. Spending AP is not one of them

If 80 AP unlocks a scholarship for a player, and can be accomplished in the 1st cycle -- one is offering a scholarship at 5 pm and you are loading up to offer at 11 pm -- then arent you a cycle behind?

I’m not speaking for doggg, but I think the point here might be that you don’t have to look at the “unlocking” part of recruiting like a race. That’s one way folks conceptualize it, and it helps them form the game in their mind, but it’s not “the way to play.” If I have decided to spend a certain chunk of AP on a recruit in the first 12 cycles before recruits start signing - let’s say up to 240 - that’s what he’s worth to me. It doesn’t have to matter to me when I’ve unlocked certain actions. I don’t have to care about being the first to offer a scholarship, or the first to make promises. I only really have to make sure I’m not the 6th to try to do a campus visit, since they’re limited to 5. It’s completely valid for me to not worry about “being behind.” Since considering credit isn’t a thing anymore, the only effect being the first to plant a flag on a recruit has is perception; and that isn’t nothing, and it’s worth a consideration if that’s how someone chooses to play, but a coach isn’t giving up a ton of real value they can’t make up in other ways by ignoring that, IMO.

Posted by 2xRedRaider on 11/19/2020 2:56:00 PM (view original):
If 80 AP unlocks a scholarship for a player, and can be accomplished in the 1st cycle -- one is offering a scholarship at 5 pm and you are loading up to offer at 11 pm -- then arent you a cycle behind?

The way you worded this statement, sure, you could look at that as being behind. But your statement isn't the point that gil is getting at.

My "decision" to sprinkle AP on cycle 1 amongst lots of players (rather than just one key target) is just one of many strategies out there. So the statement you made is correct if nothing else about recruiting is considered.

What gil is getting at, is that he believes since I'm playing it safe by adding 1 extra AP on players when I unlock them, that I'm falling behind. For example, if we knew ahead of time that it took 50 AP to unlock 3 different recruits..... while over the course of 3 cycles, I'm putting 51 51 and 51 to unlock them safely, gil is putting exactly 50 50 and 50. So after 3 cycles of recruiting, in this (rather dumb) example I made, I'm a total of 3 AP behind others.

Big whoopty doo in my opinion. But to each their own. I also agree with what shoe said, in that you're never "behind", as far as time. There's no bonus for being first.

nothing i said was a commentary on any approach to d1 recruiting, so please don't take it that way (not a dogg-directed comment - and i love the sprinkling of 1ap). everyone has to unlock players eventually, i was mostly just trying to point out how one can evaluate those circumstances deliberately, to get rid of the risk of those unexpected 99%s etc. whatever else i was trying to say along the way has gotten lost in the shuffle so i am just going to bail on the rest of it. sorry if you feel ganged up on dogg, or criticized, that wasn't my intention.

Awwww, my pal to the rescue. I don't feel ganged up on. Or anything like that. My words may look like that on a page, but I'm just having a conversation as well. I think all the same things are important that you do I'm sure. I'm just not as stiff on that last AP or two that some may view as "he's wasting 1 AP each time. Why do that?".

II'm not mad at anyone! Just a different perspective. Another reason I feel that way is when the dust settles, and I lose roll after roll after roll (even when leading), I'll often have 500+ or 1000+ and lose the player in the end. So it all ends up as a 'waste'. So my extra 1 AP while unlocking ain't nothing to me.

Posted by topdogggbm on 11/21/2020 1:20:00 AM (view original):
Awwww, my pal to the rescue. I don't feel ganged up on. Or anything like that. My words may look like that on a page, but I'm just having a conversation as well. I think all the same things are important that you do I'm sure. I'm just not as stiff on that last AP or two that some may view as "he's wasting 1 AP each time. Why do that?".

II'm not mad at anyone! Just a different perspective. Another reason I feel that way is when the dust settles, and I lose roll after roll after roll (even when leading), I'll often have 500+ or 1000+ and lose the player in the end. So it all ends up as a 'waste'. So my extra 1 AP while unlocking ain't nothing to me.

it not the extra 1 ap that is as important as the 99% and 100%s where you fall literally a cycle behind on the player. if you already covering those that is the most important bit. but when you have 1-5 AP into a guy its really not that clear where those cutoffs are for instant unlocking, that is where its tricky and hence my post on the subject (1 ap and 2%, is that 50? 40? 65? it could be any of the above, if my just woke up mental napkin math is worth anything. calling it 1 ap is not really that reasonable but i'll allow it!)

of course the 1 ap on a battle late is worth nothing. that goes without saying. however even in my very short time coaching 3.0, it is happened numerous times - probably north of 50% of the seasons that i participate in actually - where chap and i would be sitting there haggling over APs on players early because its like we can unlock these 3 guys or those 2, or maybe we can unlock 2 if we get lucky on the AP required or 1 for sure - which should we do? and such. sometimes adding 1-2 AP would have been huge for us, would have let us unlock a whole extra player a cycle earlier, and i'd have traded 50 AP to get those 1-2 ap faster. when 1 AP = unlocking a key player 1 cycle earlier - it can really matter. is 1 AP really enough to make that difference most seasons? no, of course not. but most seasons, its tight. not doing the math will cost you unlocking a player a cycle earlier at least once (either directly or through barely not having enough to unlock the next guy due to overspend), and probably pretty often, probably 2-5 times per dozen seasons, something in that ballpark.

doing the math isn't the final frontier, either. a better coach should be able to (at least partially) figure the AP based on preferences, prestige, and player rank and have a better assessment than the math can bring alone. doing the math is what i did to make up for my cluelessness, i figured that out in my first week. but yeah. i consider doing the math i laid out to be what a rookie should be doing on day 1 to compensate for not being able to do any better. not some advanced strategy for coaches who have years under their belt (although if they are still rounding and guessing - then yes).

anyway just kind of clarifying my position, not so much trying to convince you (time is on my side there anyway). i thought you got my point and just didn't agree - for the most part - but the comment about the 1000 ap battles makes me question that. of course i am not criticizing that you could be 52.1% instead of 52%! i am not that crazy :)

Posted by gillispie1 on 11/21/2020 1:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by topdogggbm on 11/21/2020 1:20:00 AM (view original):
Awwww, my pal to the rescue. I don't feel ganged up on. Or anything like that. My words may look like that on a page, but I'm just having a conversation as well. I think all the same things are important that you do I'm sure. I'm just not as stiff on that last AP or two that some may view as "he's wasting 1 AP each time. Why do that?".

II'm not mad at anyone! Just a different perspective. Another reason I feel that way is when the dust settles, and I lose roll after roll after roll (even when leading), I'll often have 500+ or 1000+ and lose the player in the end. So it all ends up as a 'waste'. So my extra 1 AP while unlocking ain't nothing to me.

it not the extra 1 ap that is as important as the 99% and 100%s where you fall literally a cycle behind on the player. if you already covering those that is the most important bit. but when you have 1-5 AP into a guy its really not that clear where those cutoffs are for instant unlocking, that is where its tricky and hence my post on the subject (1 ap and 2%, is that 50? 40? 65? it could be any of the above, if my just woke up mental napkin math is worth anything. calling it 1 ap is not really that reasonable but i'll allow it!)

of course the 1 ap on a battle late is worth nothing. that goes without saying. however even in my very short time coaching 3.0, it is happened numerous times - probably north of 50% of the seasons that i participate in actually - where chap and i would be sitting there haggling over APs on players early because its like we can unlock these 3 guys or those 2, or maybe we can unlock 2 if we get lucky on the AP required or 1 for sure - which should we do? and such. sometimes adding 1-2 AP would have been huge for us, would have let us unlock a whole extra player a cycle earlier, and i'd have traded 50 AP to get those 1-2 ap faster. when 1 AP = unlocking a key player 1 cycle earlier - it can really matter. is 1 AP really enough to make that difference most seasons? no, of course not. but most seasons, its tight. not doing the math will cost you unlocking a player a cycle earlier at least once (either directly or through barely not having enough to unlock the next guy due to overspend), and probably pretty often, probably 2-5 times per dozen seasons, something in that ballpark.

doing the math isn't the final frontier, either. a better coach should be able to (at least partially) figure the AP based on preferences, prestige, and player rank and have a better assessment than the math can bring alone. doing the math is what i did to make up for my cluelessness, i figured that out in my first week. but yeah. i consider doing the math i laid out to be what a rookie should be doing on day 1 to compensate for not being able to do any better. not some advanced strategy for coaches who have years under their belt (although if they are still rounding and guessing - then yes).

anyway just kind of clarifying my position, not so much trying to convince you (time is on my side there anyway). i thought you got my point and just didn't agree - for the most part - but the comment about the 1000 ap battles makes me question that. of course i am not criticizing that you could be 52.1% instead of 52%! i am not that crazy :)

Ok well if your first sentence here is what this is about, I think all this mess was possibly directed somewhere else, and I just ate it because I "thought" it was directed towards me. I'm lost in it all anyways now. But long story short, I've always understood that if 2 AP gets you to 5%, that doesn't EXACTLY mean that it's 40 AP total needed to unlock. It could likely fall anywhere between 33 AP and 49 AP total. If 2 gets you to 5%. (If anyone is going to say..... nope! It's between 34 and 48.... I hear ya! But I'm just being vague once again!). I've always understood that, and it's also the reason I try to play safe.

If 2 AP only got me to 5%, and let's say I only have 40 AP total, I may pass on that guy for that 2nd cycle, if unlocking "a" player was a priority. For fear of hitting that 99% you mentioned. I would prefer to find a guy that I felt was just as good of a player, where my 2 AP got me to 6% instead. That way it's basically guaranteed I can unlock him. Then I'd go back to the original example player that I mentioned at another time.

So did we just chase each others tail in circles for days now, but never caught up with the other? Only gil and I can succeed at this!

very possible. it does sound like that is what happened. perhaps the reason i felt it was important to explain the math is having gone through this with other folks recently. what i realized is while the (very successful) coach i was talking to understood that 2 ap and 5% didn't mean 40 ap, they were hand-waving it away as game weirdness never to be understood. not sort of like yeah, i could figure that out but don't care, but just chalking it up to a glitch or something. i was merely trying to point out that this mystification was not necessary, that the 5% was the culprit, that it could be as low as 4.5% or as high as just under 5.5%, allowing one to calculate the precise possible range. whether you want to or not, i always found it comforting to know things are explained. i can't show you the math to calculate the rotation of the planets (i guess). but knowing math explains their movements is comforting to me nonetheless? not sure if anyone else's brain works like that.

you know, there is a pattern though. i'm thinking back to the other times i've explained this, and how successful those were. there's a pretty clear pattern of failure there. i'm not very good at explaining things that make sense to me intuitively. i'm going to wager that my first explanation was a little light and just try to shore that up in case someone ever tries to track this down in the future -

the 40 AP on 2ap = 5% might come from a sort of intuitive, 5% is 1/20th so 2*20 is 40, or other similar ways of thinking. but these intuitive methods break down when you work with less friendly numbers like 7% or 4.5%. % means 1/100 for some weird reason (it must have helped older civilizations trade goats or something), so mathematically the game is saying 2 AP = 0.05, or if you like, 0.05 / 1 or .05 out of 1 (which is still 0.05). to get to 40, you do # ap so far / amount unlocked = total ap required, and solve for total ap required (you have the other 2), so 2 / 0.05 = 40. this is the equation behind the intuition.

side bar - the # ap so far / amount unlocked = total ap is the same as saying # ap so far / total ap required = amount unlocked, which is probably the literal definition used by the game itself. as in, if you need 40 ap, and you've done 2, then 2 / 40 = 0.05 = 5%, and anything over 100% = unlocked and is shown as a 100%. that is how the game code works. the two statements are identical though, its just a rearranging of the terms
# ap so far / total ap required = amount unlocked (given, this is the game's definition)
# ap so far = amount unlocked * total ap required (multiply both sides by total ap required)
# ap so far / amount unlocked = total ap required (divide both sides by amount unlocked)

the final equation is what we need to use, because we are trying to find total ap required. its not important to follow the above really. just showing why its true.

so anyway, this equation (# ap so far / amount unlocked = total ap required) is what you can use to calculate any of these, if you also add the understanding that the game is rounding to 5% (or whatever %). you can go prove this to yourself if you like, but generally speaking in programming, there are 2 options. the game could truncate (anything with a 5 in front becomes a 5, so 5.001 or 5.999 both become 5, the 5.999 doesn't round up if you truncate. 4.9999 would truncate down to 4), or the game could round (5 = at least 4.5 and less than 5.5). both are valid from a programming standpoint, but anything else would take a lot more work to implement and thus is extremely unlikely (rule 1 of understanding programs - programmers are lazy). i did the work to prove its rounding, but you are free to convince yourself (40 ap would always work if it was truncating).

anyway, so to put it all together - to find the full range - take the equation, figure out the best and worst case values from the rounding, and plug them in.
equation:
# ap so far / amount unlocked = total ap required

worst and best case values:
5% could be 4.5% or just under 5.5%

plug in the values:
2 ap so far / 0.045 = 44.4 ap total worst case
2 ap so far / 0.055 = 36.36 ap total best case

so you could conclude, because you can't do .4 ap or whatever, that total - 37 ap to 45 ap is the range for this player. it is impossible fewer than 37 ap will unlock, and its impossible 45 ap will not unlock. there is nothing more that can be concluded from this data.

if you put more ap into a guy and have a 2nd set of data, the two ranges are both true. so if one says at least 37, and most 45, and the other say at least 41 and at most 47, you know its at least 41 and at most 45. meaning, you can take the tighter (higher) lower boundary from your 2 data points, and the tighter (lower) upper boundary. this is just due to math, nothing to do with HD itself.

anyway, i hope this makes sense, IF anyone cares to either 1) just simply know the weirdness is not a glitch or anything like that, just rounding or 2) to actually calculate the ranges. my point was never really about this being necessary. its just how i grappled myself with the uncertainty, to put it in a tidy little box. d1 recruiting tends to be a doozy for folks to learn, i've been there, and i tend to think this helps make sense of one very small corner of the d1 recruiting world. but its just a preference.