I'm in my first season and enjoying the process, but I'm not ok with being an average owner (even though that would be an upgrade from my current state). I'm 99 games into the season and 22 GB in my division. After running a quick equation to see if some of my problem is "luck related," I see that I have the worst Win %-ExpWin% in my league at -.068, which is -.016 worse than the second unluckiest team (but my ExpWin% is still only .481); only myself and three other teams are -.04 or worse.
I've got some ideas, but any suggestions on how I can increase my Win% in future seasons would be greatly appreciated.
Franchise Profile: Padres - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

I would guess Defense (i counted about 5 position players that don't meet minimum standards) and GIDP (170+ in 109 games) would be the likely culprits. I don't know how tough your division is, but it looks like you have a vet team that should be doing better, but playing in a pitchers park and making too many mistakes in the bases and on the field is probably adding up.

*we are 109 games in
Thanks McGirk, I think I put too much stock in bats above all else. I know I had the slowest team in the league the last time I looked too. Maybe a more-balanced approach would help.

I'm a fan of building defense first (usually cheaper route) then adding offensive pieces (can be expensive)

I'm probably oversimplifying this... you do have some good looking hitters, regardless of defense. But their Home/Road splits show that San Diego is completely nerfing their numbers at home. And maybe it's the team defense, but your pitchers don't seem to be getting the equivalent boost from the park.

And no, the solution isn't necessarily just "change the park." I would try bringing in a couple of elite glove/no bat guys, at CF and SS. Give up some outs, get to more balls in play.

I'd also point out that the solution isn't necessarily not "changing the park" either. I think that would do a lot. You've got a bunch of slow power bats with subpar defense, playing in a field that rewards speed and good defense while hindering power.

That said, defense generally comes cheaper than hitting, which comes cheaper than pitching, so a park like San Diego is useful in maximizing the cheaper things you can get (defense) while covering a bit for weakness in the hardest thing to get (pitching).

All that said, despite those improvements, I wouldn't get too locked in on differences in Exp% and Actual%. A lot of that is frankly luck and varies from year to year. You can make some adjustments at the margins to help with that (defense, park, smart RP usage etc), but I'd generally not chalk it up as indicative of anything besides bad luck. For me, the bigger concern is that the Exp% isn't great, not that the Actual is lagging it by so much

I had a softball team once, bunch of fat DH types. I put 'em in Yankee Stadium. Have to admit it was kinda fun, not the sort of thing I usually do.

Posted by damag on 12/1/2020 12:04:00 PM (view original):
I had a softball team once, bunch of fat DH types. I put 'em in Yankee Stadium. Have to admit it was kinda fun, not the sort of thing I usually do.

On the opposite of that I remember reading a post by a guy that put together a team of 8 high defense SS all across the field. It was a one off season to do testing for when they actually updated HBD and he wanted to see what happened. I think he ended up making the playoffs. Defense wins games.

The team has good players it is just not built well.

Once you control the things you can control, the rest is out of your hands.

I'd focus on evaluating your team in every single spot. The close games are going to be won by pinch hitting, poor/great baserunning, relief pitching and defensive replacements. Your manager settings are key, but if you don't have the horses to take advantage of late game manager settings, then the settings themselves are moot. In my opinion, an NL team should look for one or two solid guys that can play every day then load up on platoons every where else. Pinch hitting is huge in the NL so if you have some league average pitchers, put a bit higher pull rating on them so they can be pinch hit for if needed.

I like to have a basher vs. Lefties on my bench while facing a right handed starter and a basher vs. Righties on my bench while facing a left handed starter. This gives the Sim incentive to use pinch hitting. Also, whichever C is the better defender, be sure he is set as the defensive replacement late in games. Any backup SS with great defense also needs to replace middle of the road defenders at 2b, CF or 3b where applicable. And make sure that poor hitters are set to be pinch hit for and great hitters are set not to be pinch hit for. Also, if you have poor hitting Fielders, make sure they have a defensive replacement behind them so they can be pinch hit for. You can turn off their personal checkbox to be replaced in player settings so they won't get replaced defensively, but if there is nobody in the defensive replacement setting for that position, often times, the Sim won't bring in a pinch hitter.

Also, don't run into outs. I use a rule of thumb that has helped me out consistently. If you have a guy that gets on base 34+ percent of the time and his baserunning +speed is over 150, bump your basestealing settings up one notch. For every guy that fits this criteria, bump the settings up one notch. I rarely have it above the average setting because I rarely have multiple guys that fit the above criteria that also play every day.

And make sure to use judicious rest. If you are losing or winning a game by five runs, have your lower durability guys get some rest. Another thing that leads to unnecessary losses are fatigue and injury.

The rest of it is up to run distribution, the timing of simulation's implementation of your settings, hot and cold streaks, seasonal player performance variance, etc.