What is the year that you are supposed to sign an arbitration eligible player to a long term deal instead of taking them to arbitration?  I just took over a team and am trying to learn the game.

I'm asking in reference to this player who will be eligible next season: http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=6452288

He hasn't even been arb'd yet.  With only two years BL experience, he's got at least 1 more season of minimum wage. 

I can't think of a single good reason to sign a player long term before his third arbitration year (the year when he has 5 years of ML experience). If you sign him LT before that, you're just throwing away years of team control, and you're not saving any money. In fact, if you sign LT in the first web year, you'll be paying a lot more for that season.

Decline.  Player is 26.  If you arb him twice, he should be 29 before his 3rd arb. He's still a viable player so he might ask for 5 years.   Will he be worth it at 33 y/o?   After his first arb, arb/LT demand might be reasonably close.   You could sign him thru 32 at that point. 

I bet he's worth it as a 33 year old

Then you'd arb him twice and give him a 5 year deal. 

Anybody ever find connection between signing a stud long term before arbitration to get them to resign with team after first contract rather than hitting FA?

Posted by greggypete on 12/10/2020 12:09:00 PM (view original):
Anybody ever find connection between signing a stud long term before arbitration to get them to resign with team after first contract rather than hitting FA?

No, and I feel fairly confident stating the ONLY thing that seems to determine whether or not a player will re-sign is his patience rating.

Posted by bruceleefan on 12/10/2020 12:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by greggypete on 12/10/2020 12:09:00 PM (view original):
Anybody ever find connection between signing a stud long term before arbitration to get them to resign with team after first contract rather than hitting FA?

No, and I feel fairly confident stating the ONLY thing that seems to determine whether or not a player will re-sign is his patience rating.

+1

Posted by bruceleefan on 12/10/2020 12:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by greggypete on 12/10/2020 12:09:00 PM (view original):
Anybody ever find connection between signing a stud long term before arbitration to get them to resign with team after first contract rather than hitting FA?

No, and I feel fairly confident stating the ONLY thing that seems to determine whether or not a player will re-sign is his patience rating.

And sometimes even a high patience rating won't keep those stud players from testing free agency. The above chain is still true today -- there is rarely a reason to sign a guy long-term before arb3.