i think the answer is no, as far as direct action goes. post season success is a factor though which tends to be concentrated among the top prestige teams? plus the stuff you said. but basically, if you took an identical player from an a+ team and moved him to a b- team with all else held equal, i think the odds of leaving would be the same.
i'm torn on the NBA preference. there used to be one but you could only discover it after you started targeting players, and so it didn't have a huge impact (i liked to discover it as an FYI for planning, kinda how we all use the big board now (it didn't exist then) but rarely could act on it recruiting wise - i wasn't a great d1 recruiter in those days though - i think lostmyth used the preference to significant effect though). overall, i guess i feel like it was good it got removed.
this time, there'd be time to react i suppose. and presumably this time it would be a publicly shown preference instead of a hidden one you had to discover. so i think it could go better. but i am concerned it would favor the rich so to speak. i'd still think it would be interesting but i also don't really know if its realistic (there are certainly college players who will jump before others, but is this clear when they are in high school? i'm sort of skeptical) and i'd be concerned somewhat about competitive balance. feels almost like favorite school - one of those things that if you give it teeth, its going to cause problems, and if you don't, its mostly window dressing.