Posted by hughesjr on 1/1/2021 1:32:00 AM (view original):
Posted by gillispie1 on 12/31/2020 12:41:00 PM (view original):
Posted by hughesjr on 12/31/2020 11:01:00 AM (view original):
Posted by craigaltonw on 12/29/2020 12:35:00 AM (view original):
You can usually get by with honoring 90% of the promise, sometimes even less. If you promise 25 mins, your player will expect about 22.5 or more to stay happy.
I think the number is 80% .. so for 25 mins it would be 20 mins per game (25x0.8=20) .. and for promised start it would be starting in 21 of 26 regular season games (26x0.8=20.8) This means you can pick 4 or 5 of your most important games and start your best players (assuming the guy you promised is not one of them).
this changed a couple times since the old days. you used to be able to bank 80%. no longer. there seems to be a range of strictness, some players expect the full 100% of their minutes now, i believe. not sure there are any players who will quit if you are over 90% but i am sure there are players who will complain.
Thanks. I would have had 2 guys getting very ****** :)
I wonder how this changed.. I did not see any change notes.
i think there were two different changes, the most recent perhaps 5-6 years ago, and one a couple before that maybe? its not in the change log thread they kept up for a year or two and have links, but i do recall references to the changes in the actual change log page, which i always struggle to find.
i did some work to try to adjust to the first changes, but i basically just threw up my hands on the second, i've never done my own study really. well, i wanted to when i came back to 3.0 - i even paid for a d3 team for a few seasons to do some testing with. but i never got into it.
i think there's a few key questions - the first is regarding starts and minutes. there has been evidence posted on the boards that a start promise can be quit over even off a single missed game - which sounds insane. but i've never had access to a coach or circumstance in real time where i got to examine the circumstance and have my questions answered satisfactorily. and i've not played with it at all. i think the main question is really, starts and minutes, what are the player types and what drives the differences? supposedly, hidden preferences don't exist. why then does one player have no issue with 80% and another does? it SEEMS to be clearly not a random game-time decision, if you will - a guy won't complain at 85% one week and be fine at 85% the next. that suggests there's a player level attribute, even if its generated after the promise is made. is it random? is it based on anything? and also how does it work?
the main thing i really wanted to discover was for d1 ee manipulation purposes. its really hard to hold back the 80 work ethic players, and the 80 WE guys with really high potential are often quite less valuable in recruiting than they would be with 40 work ethic. in the olden days, when a player was borderline on their promise, sometimes their work ethic tanked pretty good, not like down to 1, those guys quit - but maybe a 55 WE guy would drop to 25, something along those lines, and he would stay. my question is, is there a goldilocks zone, where you can intentionally make this happen? can you make and break d1 promises to high WE freshman, who otherwise are too high of EE risks to justify, where they will deterministically stay but lose half their work ethic? if so, it would be a mighty powerful tool in the kit.
anyway i don't really know anything more than that, the 80% limit on minutes seems to still hold for some guys but not all, and i have no clue why, it seems anecdotally that a bunch of players have a 90% mark but nobody knows for sure. i also want to take back a bit when i said i am sure there are players who will complain over 90% minutes - i'm 100% positive over the 80% mark, i would say. but i'm thinking about foul trouble games and the stuff we've learned there recently, and thinking, maybe i don't know players over 90% on minutes can complain. its possible the time i felt i had a proof-positive case there, i was miscalculating the foul trouble games (which are counted differently throughout the year, interestingly / confusingly). it does seem like starts promises can be super strict, but all of this is anecdotal. i just basically don't push promises that hard instead of figuring it out.