Are we going to come out of this thing and say, we still don't know? : )

No, I think we'll have a pretty solid answer in one of three ways...

With error rates, the more chances needed to see the outcome, thus the buildup over time of the modern team catchup to the deadball team. At 10 chances the raw difference between a .971 and .962 fielding percentage isn't really perceptible, after 10,000 chances, it starts to really show a clear trend.

Team	G	CG	SHO	W	L	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	OAV	WHIP	ERA	PO	A	E	DP	FPCT	W%	OAV+E	WHIP+E	RA/9	HR/9	TEAM TYPE
TWISL: Deadball Fielding Test	141	2	0	76	65	29	33	1,253.00	1530	800	641	91	335	340	0.293	1.49	4.60	3759	1669	209	384	0.963	0.539	0.316	1.66	5.75	0.65	Deadball
TWISL Old	141	0	0	78	63	33	45	1,253.00	1372	559	511	41	310	340	0.278	1.34	3.67	3759	1698	66	385	0.988	0.553	0.277	1.40	4.02	0.29	Deadball
TWISL DOGGS DEADBALLERS ARE ALL DEAD	141	0	0	62	79	33	42	1,261.33	1364	642	541	32	346	398	0.270	1.36	3.86	3784	1632	139	292	0.975	0.440	0.284	1.47	4.58	0.23	Deadball
TWISL Deadballers	141	3	0	81	60	31	44	1,269.00	1365	700	544	69	486	406	0.267	1.46	3.86	3807	1578	208	387	0.963	0.574	0.292	1.62	4.96	0.49	Deadball
Twisl 1888-1919 Arms	141	0	0	90	51	36	49	1,256.33	1289	597	519	60	374	376	0.258	1.32	3.72	3769	1630	162	332	0.971	0.638	0.278	1.45	4.28	0.43	Deadball
TWISL - Deadball Pitchers	141	10	1	75	66	30	47	1,260.67	1539	977	731	90	544	342	0.290	1.65	5.22	3782	1706	294	457	0.949	0.532	0.326	1.89	6.97	0.64	Deadball
Talking to Tesla	141	4	1	76	65	38	51	1,267.33	1272	583	476	24	387	443	0.254	1.31	3.38	3802	1602	163	359	0.971	0.539	0.274	1.44	4.14	0.17	Deadball
Old: Full of Krapp & Duryea	141	7	4	91	50	46	56	1,280.00	1098	570	486	47	602	504	0.226	1.33	3.42	3840	1643	177	395	0.969	0.645	0.249	1.47	4.01	0.33	Deadball
Old Cy	141	0	0	48	93	20	40	1,244.67	1412	893	730	58	746	401	0.279	1.73	5.28	3734	1642	201	386	0.964	0.340	0.302	1.90	6.46	0.42	Deadball
Old Cubs	141	9	3	71	70	33	45	1,241.00	1306	771	589	68	720	485	0.261	1.63	4.27	3723	1580	253	295	0.954	0.504	0.295	1.84	5.59	0.49	Deadball
Defense Test: Deadball	141	1	0	78	63	27	44	1,257.67	1425	706	592	69	315	256	0.278	1.38	4.24	3773	1703	182	392	0.968	0.553	0.299	1.53	5.05	0.49	Deadball
Deadball Pitching & Bad Defense @ Target	141	1	0	26	115	11	23	1,219.00	1876	1466	1199	223	694	440	0.340	2.11	8.85	3657	1556	295	444	0.946	0.184	0.373	2.35	10.82	1.65	Deadball
Young Yu	141	3	0	48	93	23	42	1,246.33	1530	1030	892	158	740	754	0.297	1.82	6.44	3739	1503	146	324	0.973	0.340	0.310	1.94	7.44	1.14	Modern
Young Wakefield	141	0	0	71	70	38	53	1,240.00	1273	665	576	117	475	908	0.258	1.41	4.18	3720	1361	151	274	0.971	0.504	0.277	1.53	4.83	0.85	Modern
TWISL: Modern Fielding Test	141	0	0	75	66	31	43	1,264.67	1574	867	757	150	337	606	0.298	1.51	5.39	3794	1526	158	317	0.971	0.532	0.313	1.64	6.17	1.07	Modern
TWISL New	141	3	1	69	72	25	38	1,258.00	1497	654	615	84	264	750	0.291	1.40	4.40	3774	1504	63	225	0.988	0.489	0.292	1.45	4.68	0.60	Modern
TWISL Modern-ish	141	1	0	84	57	41	56	1,248.33	1169	572	478	79	325	565	0.240	1.20	3.45	3745	1497	149	293	0.972	0.596	0.260	1.32	4.12	0.57	Modern
Twisl 1985-2016 Arms	141	7	2	76	65	35	61	1,266.00	1248	616	517	91	396	647	0.252	1.30	3.68	3798	1484	123	277	0.977	0.539	0.265	1.40	4.38	0.65	Modern
TWISL - Modern Pitchers	141	1	1	89	52	37	56	1,261.33	1354	660	549	119	325	639	0.267	1.33	3.92	3784	1485	165	301	0.970	0.631	0.286	1.46	4.71	0.85	Modern
New: My Johnson Needs Orel	141	0	0	85	56	39	55	1,275.33	1119	630	532	124	506	820	0.230	1.27	3.75	3826	1487	134	331	0.975	0.603	0.247	1.38	4.45	0.88	Modern
Modern Pitching & Bad Defense at Target	141	1	1	16	125	7	25	1,209.33	2026	1745	1473	218	879	502	0.360	2.40	10.96	3628	1488	244	325	0.954	0.113	0.385	2.60	12.99	1.62	Modern
Driving a Tesla	141	2	2	81	60	45	49	1,259.67	1183	560	479	74	401	726	0.243	1.26	3.42	3779	1461	108	293	0.980	0.574	0.255	1.34	4.00	0.53	Modern
Doggs Modern Day Hurlers	141	4	2	59	82	30	40	1,255.67	1315	716	643	134	451	770	0.264	1.41	4.61	3767	1432	98	239	0.981	0.418	0.273	1.48	5.13	0.96	Modern
Defense Test: Modern	141	3	2	87	54	38	57	1,263.67	1289	568	470	92	260	707	0.257	1.23	3.35	3791	1481	135	306	0.975	0.617	0.273	1.33	4.05	0.66	Modern
Deadball Totals	1692	37	9	852	840	367	519	15063.00	16848	9264	7559	872	5859	4731	0.262	1.507	4.516	45189	19639	2349	4508	0.965	0.504	0.298	1.66	5.54	0.52	Deadball Total
Modern Totals	1692	25	11	840	852	389	575	15048.33	16577	9283	7981	1440	5359	8394	0.261	1.458	4.773	45145	17709	1674	3505	0.974	0.496	0.288	1.57	5.55	0.86	Modern Total
Difference		-12	2	-12	12	22	56	-14.67	-271	19	422	568	-500	3663	0.000	-0.050	0.257	-44	-1930	-675	-1003	0.009	-0.007	-0.010	-0.09	0.02	0.34	Modern-Deadball

The two era are dead even (with a non-meaningful advantage to modern pitchers) in RA/9. Even accounting for the extra HRs and XBH allowed, once you account for errors, they are giving up the same amount of runs. Deadball pitchers have a very minor difference in W%, one that I expect to even out before the end of this thing. Even now, the difference is equal to 1.3 wins over a full season, so is essentially a meaningless difference (81.6 wins and 80.3 win paces, respectively).

We still have a little season left, and I'd love to run another league to further test this, but I think it's fairly clear the base salary formula does a great job at pricing similar value across the pitching eras. I'd go so far as to say the only difference is preference, and the only reason deadball pitchers seem more popular is because the standard (non-error adjusted) stats don't tell the whole story, so they seem at a glance to be doing better.

In short, modern or deadball doesn't matter, you get similar overall value for your $/IP regardless of era once you account for errors and HR/XBH rates. (That said, I personally prefer modern to deadball because you can draft essentially any fielding grades, where with deadball pitchers to be more successful you'll need to focus exclusive on fielders with good-great fielding and then spend more on defense, forgoing run scoring opportunities.)

Posted by just4me on 3/21/2021 9:25:00 PM (view original):
The two era are dead even (with a non-meaningful advantage to modern pitchers) in RA/9. Even accounting for the extra HRs and XBH allowed, once you account for errors, they are giving up the same amount of runs. Deadball pitchers have a very minor difference in W%, one that I expect to even out before the end of this thing. Even now, the difference is equal to 1.3 wins over a full season, so is essentially a meaningless difference (81.6 wins and 80.3 win paces, respectively).

We still have a little season left, and I'd love to run another league to further test this, but I think it's fairly clear the base salary formula does a great job at pricing similar value across the pitching eras. I'd go so far as to say the only difference is preference, and the only reason deadball pitchers seem more popular is because the standard (non-error adjusted) stats don't tell the whole story, so they seem at a glance to be doing better.

In short, modern or deadball doesn't matter, you get similar overall value for your $/IP regardless of era once you account for errors and HR/XBH rates. (That said, I personally prefer modern to deadball because you can draft essentially any fielding grades, where with deadball pitchers to be more successful you'll need to focus exclusive on fielders with good-great fielding and then spend more on defense, forgoing run scoring opportunities.)

I'd be interested in doing something like this again.