Greetings,

Earlier in my illustrious 4-month HBD career I was trying to "time it right" for player development, not wanting to promote someone at the wrong time to miss on a development cycle...or, less negatively, trying to "optimize it" to get the most possible development points.

A wise owner said I was thinking of it wrong, that there is a small amount of development happening all the time, and it just gets "recorded" when an event occurs, like a promotion or trade, or after a certain amount of games if no event has happened with that player for a bit. This was both helpful, and comforting, because the FOMO was gone.

But, I keep coming back to this when one player doesn't seem to be developing as well as he should, and another, lesser player at same level with same coach seems to be developing better. I know they're not apples-to-apples cuz, for example, they play different positions, but I can't help having the feeling like maybe BOTH are true...there is a little bit of development happening all the time which only gets "recorded" periodically...AND there are mini-breakthroughs (read: non-linear) where shrewd management can help maximize development.

What has been your experience? Are you fully in the small-increments-periodic-recording school of thought?

One more example...people talk of promoting your players before the WS ends, to get a "promotion bump", as if this isn't simply a late-season "recording" event that would have been otherwise reconciled in next season's Spring Training ratings.

There are a lot of frames of thought on this. The truth really is that no one knows. For the longest time owners were under the impression that a players 'makeup' was the most likely factor to determining if they would receive ratings bumps, how often and how big the bumps would be.

Some of us now believe there is some unknown formula we can't see that determines how much a player will progress, how much their ratings bumps will be and...... to a degree how often (I say to a degree because most players will receive around the same number of ratings bump 'opportunities' in a year but the part in the season they happen will be entirely different.

My biggest proof of this was between Jimmie Merced and Brent Hammond. (some of this you will have to trust me on as injuries have skewed the players progress from their natural progression) Both were drafted in the same season, both followed the exact same progression through the minors, both received relatively the same amount of play time. Merced was 2 years younger which typically means he would receive more of a ratings boost but Hammond has a higher makeup which can mean a larger ratings boost. For this comparison we will only be using batting as a speedy 2B tends to get more fielding / running boost ratings then a offensive C.

Merced's growth cycle was aprox 6 points, 4 points, 1 point, 1/2 a point
Hammonds growth cycle was aprox 9 points, 7 points, 5 points, 1 point.

Hammond was older but had a higher makeup. Does that mean makeup wins in development over age? Again, I'm not sure. Sometimes I have guys with Makeup of 99 that never come close to their draft progression whereas guys who have makeup of 43 exceed it.

I would say don't worry too much about shrewd management or promotions. For me, I try to get my prospects as much playing time as possible regardless of what level they are at (to the point I have some position players in the minors at 50 health starting games) I promote at the end of the year (no one seems to know if the end of the season bump is true or is just rounding up the minor bumps we can't see. Regardless, I like to see the bump) and try to figure out which works best for you.

The one consistent I can say (I'm sure some of the other guys will dispute me on this) is if you make a trade before the season starts, a player doesn't seem to get the spring training bump. They will have 'trade' on their ratings bump and, from my experience won't get a ratings increase at all. I try to avoid trading for or trading away prospects during spring training if possible.

"One more example...people talk of promoting your players before the WS ends, to get a "promotion bump", as if this isn't simply a late-season "recording" event that would have been otherwise reconciled in next season's Spring Training ratings."

This is important. In my experience and I think there was general agreement among most coaches on this, you need that end of the season promotion bump (or the final bump you can get in the 3rd round of the MiL playoffs if you make it that far) to realize the development that happened between your final recorded rating increase and the end of the season. The unrealized improvements don't carry over from one season to the next, so you across the first 4 seasons of a prospects development your could be losing 3-4 vL/vR points and a point or two of Overall if you're not making postseason promotions.

ok...that sounds like you subscribe to the incremental/recording theory, and that there isn't a "rollover" recording event, that it has to be done very near end of season, a sort of use-it-or-lose-it recording event.

I've been doing the just-prior-to-WS-end promotions to get that recording event. Is there a point where the 20-player minimum roster size gets lifted before the end of the WS so you can move several guys? I don't know that it really matters since there aren't that many prospects you care to get the recording event, but the 20-player minimum restricts players moving freely, and the minor league season is over anyway