Haven't signed a stud since they closed the arb3 loop hole to signing guys long term so looking for other strategies to exploit.

Anyone know if there's any benefit to signing a player during their arb1 or arb2 season in terms of re-signability on the next their 2nd LT contract? Doubt the system is set up for that kind of long term planning but thought I'd throw it out there.

I heard LT arb 1 is cheaper than LT arb 2 which is cheaper than LT arb 3 but not entirely sure. I'm never signed anyone LT arb 1 but arb 2 I have, but generally just position players.

Resignability, best guess is no.

Posted by ramonshaw on 4/24/2021 3:47:00 PM (view original):
I heard LT arb 1 is cheaper than LT arb 2 which is cheaper than LT arb 3 but not entirely sure. I'm never signed anyone LT arb 1 but arb 2 I have, but generally just position players.

Resignability, best guess is no.

Same with me. If the player is good enough to deserve a long term contract, I almost always do it in arb3. For position players that depend on range/power to add value, I play that a little more situationally. If they are a catcher who is already losing some of his arm or 2b/3b/SS types that are already losing arm and range, I might sign them long term in arb2 to shorter contracts. Especially if I can get a type A out of them.

As far as re-signability though, I think it comes down to a few things. 1. some type of combination or patience rating and overall rating; 2. avoiding a third year of arb. The few guys I have signed long term in arb2 were willing to re-sign with me, but I think that had more to do with the patience rating and the overall rating than it did the fact that I signed them long term before arb3.

I always wait to sign long term contracts in arb 3 unless the long term is cheaper or the same as the arb 2 asking. Yes, the long term asking goes up every season, BUT the savings of going to arbitration usually outweighs the savings per year of the LT deal.

ALSO, long term deals seem to be based on the projected ratings. that is why I wait until the prospect (especially a great one) is 21 years old to bring them up after 20 games. Then they will be 27 when they hit arb 3 and the long term will now be based on their current projections. As you rarely see a prospect reach their full projected ratings and at 27, their projected converts to the current ratings. At least, this is what I have noticed.

It kills me when I see guys have minimum salaries for 3 seasons and then signed to a 3 year deal at $7.5MM a year.
1. At the very least, lock him up for 5 years.
2. The 1st Arb probably would have been in the $2MM range and the 2nd Arb in the $5.5MM range. And then his long term would have probably been in the $8MM range. So you saved $500,000 a year for 3-5 years when you compare the LT deals. Or you could have saved $7.5MM over the first 2 years of Arbitration.
3. No one will convince me that it makes sense to sign a long term deal in Arb1, EVER! At least I can't think of any scenario.......

pitchers...they always go FA route after ARB - so lock em up early.

Only time I even think about signing a player long-term instead of Arb 2--- a position player whom I only want to sign through age 31 or so, and I'm afraid he'll want a longer-term contract than that if I wait one more year. I've still never done it, though.

Posted by dedelman on 5/5/2021 12:27:00 AM (view original):
Only time I even think about signing a player long-term instead of Arb 2--- a position player whom I only want to sign through age 31 or so, and I'm afraid he'll want a longer-term contract than that if I wait one more year. I've still never done it, though.

this