I posted a few weeks ago about a player I was thinking about redshirting, but wasn't sure if his 22 WE would undercut the value of the redshirt season or not. I ended up deciding not to redshirt him, but for a reason I didn't expect to be a deciding factor at first. So just wanted to share what I learned from that scenario, and then also share my thinking about a guy I'm about to redshirt on my D3 team in Allen.

I decided not to redshirt this guy:
https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=4834994

...even though I really wanted to, because the redshirt year - in theory - would help maximize his chances of getting to his tantalizing potential. He started out with 7 greens and 3 blues (now has 6 greens and 3 blues as one of the greens turned blue and one of the blues turned black). My decision not to redshirt him came down to this: if I had redshirted him, then the "reward" would've been that he would be the only player on my current roster still on my roster in Season 130. I'd rather use that S130 roster spot building towards my next competitive window than have one senior & 11 freshmen/sophomores (or jucos). Given that decision, I'd rather try to get him as many starts as I can this season to hopefully boost his WE so that his jr & sr seasons he can hopefully help me take a couple bites at the apple & make deep NT runs. (I've lost more games starting him than I expected to, so that's forced me to start him less than I planned since I'm trying to sneak into the NT this season... but that's another can of worms). (And I'm gradually starting to agree with shoe & the other guy or 2 who said don't sign "fools gold" guys like this who have great potential but poor WE)

Now, on to the player on my alma mater team in D3 Allen:
https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=4846137

My questions to consider regarding the redshirt decision are:
Is his long-term potential good enough to warrant a "wasted" roster spot this season?
How much will he help me this season/do I need him this season?
And now, after the Bess learning experience, will the extra value from his 5th season be "wasted" on a rebuild season?

The second question made my decision to redshirt a decent freshman on this team last season an easy one. Playing him would have - maybe - turned a total dumpster fire season (6-21) into a slightly-less-total dumpster fire season. Possibly winning 7 or 8 games instead of 6 is meaningless, so I redshirted him.

But now... I flipped the roster over by signing 9 players in my first recruiting class, and only three were high school players. Butcher is starting out with 72 (red) athl, which is pretty awesome for D3, and that along with his current 64 (green) def means he could definitely contribute this season. And, if my D3 Allen conference (7/12 humans, arguably toughest D3 conf. in Allen) were more like my D2 Rupp conference (4/12 humans, and one of those 4 is in year 3 of a tough rebuild) then I'd probably be looking at trying to sneak into the NT this season - and viewing Butcher as a key part of that plan succeeding.

But in large part because my conference is so brutal (5 preseason top-25 teams, and two more on the others receiving votes list), I am quite confident that my best case scenario for this season is either 9-1 or 10-0 in non-con (against possibly the weakest non-con slate in HD history) and then hopefully beating the 4 bad sims in our conf. (one of the sims is preseason #17), and possibly stealing a win or two from one of the humans or the good sim. Butcher is coming in as a juco sophomore, and I think reshirting him to line him up with my four current freshmen (the guy I redshirted last season and my 3 HS recruits) so that he plays their senior year is much more valuable than having him to contribute this season.

And while we're on the topic of redshirts, this is definitely my best redshirt success story, from my D2 team in Tark:
https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=4787411
(his best position is probably SF, but I have at least 4 guys on that team whose best position is SF and he's the best rebounder out of those guys)

One of my best redshirts - https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=6141&pid=4660462

Came to St Johns as the #74 ranked center. RS his soph season. Career improvement 296 ratings points. TWO time all conference in a pretty good Big East IBA conference. Now the all time leader for the Johnnies in blocks. Number 7 all time in rebounds. And he's on to a job in investment banking.

Thanks for sharing! Gotta love it when that 17 green LP gets all the way to 91. Plus it’s good to take a chance on a 17 green with a guy like that who would’ve been good enough defensively & on the boards to be worth a roster spot even if he only maxed out at 45 LP.

Sort of like Webb’s 29 perimeter that will get to the mid-90s. He would’ve been a good all-around player without that staying green as long as it did, but the elite per makes him a great scorer & even more valuable.

The mega green outcomes that happen now and then in LP and peri are really big winners. When in doubt, grab a guy who is otherwise meh but has some green there.

My best red shirt accomplishment was at Maryland last season in naismith - but it didnt have to do with the player's talent.

We had five seniors on the roster - one of whom was a big man who was not really essential to the team. He would be a backup and play 10-14 minutes.

We also had three guys (one PG, one big and one S) who COULD leave early for the NBA draft. BUT, the early entry rules meant that with 5 graduating seniors we could lose no more than one of those three. (All five seniors had been with us all along - EE cant take you over 6 departures, ignoring walkons and one-year transfers)

That said, I was worried about a thin roster the next season because we would lose all five seniors and one EE.

Answer - redshirt the non essential big man senior. Key idea - dont redshirt him at the start of the season, just keep him off the depth chart, set at mop up, and hope he doesnt play. I waited and waited until after the post season - we lost one EE (we lost the SF, kept the guard and the big who could have left - the big is now by the way #2 on the draft board!). And then - after EEs announced, I slapped the redshirt on the senior. His work ethic went to 1 and he sent a scathing email to me. BUT, he is back and a useful backup now in the following season, when I need him. AND, by being on the roster he protected against one more EE. Net - the redshirt allowed us to lose only four seniors and one EE.....

Some would argue that a senior who sits and redshirts should leave - and they probably should - but just this once, the senior RS was magic for us

That's pretty brilliant!

I think what really happened is that he decided to sit out that season due to Covid concerns.

Posted by fd343ny on 6/10/2021 10:59:00 AM (view original):
My best red shirt accomplishment was at Maryland last season in naismith - but it didnt have to do with the player's talent.

We had five seniors on the roster - one of whom was a big man who was not really essential to the team. He would be a backup and play 10-14 minutes.

We also had three guys (one PG, one big and one S) who COULD leave early for the NBA draft. BUT, the early entry rules meant that with 5 graduating seniors we could lose no more than one of those three. (All five seniors had been with us all along - EE cant take you over 6 departures, ignoring walkons and one-year transfers)

That said, I was worried about a thin roster the next season because we would lose all five seniors and one EE.

Answer - redshirt the non essential big man senior. Key idea - dont redshirt him at the start of the season, just keep him off the depth chart, set at mop up, and hope he doesnt play. I waited and waited until after the post season - we lost one EE (we lost the SF, kept the guard and the big who could have left - the big is now by the way #2 on the draft board!). And then - after EEs announced, I slapped the redshirt on the senior. His work ethic went to 1 and he sent a scathing email to me. BUT, he is back and a useful backup now in the following season, when I need him. AND, by being on the roster he protected against one more EE. Net - the redshirt allowed us to lose only four seniors and one EE.....

Some would argue that a senior who sits and redshirts should leave - and they probably should - but just this once, the senior RS was magic for us

Hmmmmm...... I've heard that somewhere!

topdog is an expert on senior redshirts - perhaps THE expert - who I consulted in sorting out these tactics

OK, then, topdog. Ronald Decker. https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=4822249. I signed him at the end of last season as a 2 year JUCO. He gained 109 total rating points this season, and still only rebounding and shot blocking is less than black. Ball handling is still blue, and passing is still green.

I promised him minutes and a start this season, but did not give those to him at the beginning of the season. He did not start complaining until 6-7 games into the season. He would be my best perimeter shooter next season, but the rest of my team won't be ready to compete for a title yet, anyway. And I'll have a very competent senior PG to handle the team. So I'm thinking I should redshirt Decker, and let him shine in his final redshirt season. I don't think he will leave - that's my only concern. Do you agree?

Bjschumacher, that growth is amazing. My question to you, which is off topic, is how did you set up your practice plan with him? Significant minutes into all these categories? Thanks.

I tweaked the distribution a little bit as the season progressed, but this is what I ended with at the end of the season:

SH-5, C-14, REB-0, FW-10, LP-6, PE-12, BH-15, P-18, FT-10

I don't know if you are able to see the growth bars, but here he is:
https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=4822249

Posted by topdogggbm on 6/10/2021 7:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by fd343ny on 6/10/2021 10:59:00 AM (view original):
My best red shirt accomplishment was at Maryland last season in naismith - but it didnt have to do with the player's talent.

We had five seniors on the roster - one of whom was a big man who was not really essential to the team. He would be a backup and play 10-14 minutes.

We also had three guys (one PG, one big and one S) who COULD leave early for the NBA draft. BUT, the early entry rules meant that with 5 graduating seniors we could lose no more than one of those three. (All five seniors had been with us all along - EE cant take you over 6 departures, ignoring walkons and one-year transfers)

That said, I was worried about a thin roster the next season because we would lose all five seniors and one EE.

Answer - redshirt the non essential big man senior. Key idea - dont redshirt him at the start of the season, just keep him off the depth chart, set at mop up, and hope he doesnt play. I waited and waited until after the post season - we lost one EE (we lost the SF, kept the guard and the big who could have left - the big is now by the way #2 on the draft board!). And then - after EEs announced, I slapped the redshirt on the senior. His work ethic went to 1 and he sent a scathing email to me. BUT, he is back and a useful backup now in the following season, when I need him. AND, by being on the roster he protected against one more EE. Net - the redshirt allowed us to lose only four seniors and one EE.....

Some would argue that a senior who sits and redshirts should leave - and they probably should - but just this once, the senior RS was magic for us

Hmmmmm...... I've heard that somewhere!

Yeah, I am doing this at Wisconsin too with Barry Crabb. Some folks like the senior redshirt because of the extra season of resources, and honestly I don’t think twice about those. If they “fix” anything about the situation, it should be that you have to redshirt prior to resource distribution (so before scouting) so there is no doubling of resources. I would not be in favor of a redshirt causing them to leave. Get mad and lose WE, sure. But not transfer. The senior redshirt is a good hedge against bad recruiting losses and unexpected EEs, and also a good way to balance classes the way you want them. It also increases - if slightly - the utility of marginally better than replacement level players. Taking that tool out of the coaches box removes strategy options, and thus hurts gameplay.

Posted by bjschumacher on 6/11/2021 4:48:00 PM (view original):
I tweaked the distribution a little bit as the season progressed, but this is what I ended with at the end of the season:

SH-5, C-14, REB-0, FW-10, LP-6, PE-12, BH-15, P-18, FT-10

I don't know if you are able to see the growth bars, but here he is:
https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=4822249

Thanks for this. I am able to see the growth bars. Clearly the power of a high work ethic in action. 6 minutes on LP and still gains 4 on the season, aside from the other great growth. Love it.

Yeah, WE was the key. But I'm still torn about gambling on redshirting him next season. But as far as Low Post, I'm thinking it was blue at the beginning of the season, so I probably had 8 on it at the start.