thejuice6 2021 Tournament - Standings Update Topic

I notice a common numerator in three of them.
9/13/2021 9:29 PM
Regression analysis on the final 162-game regular season shows there was a small positive correlation (+0.20) relative to how early a team was selected within the respective league. But this correlation is basically due to the top 4 picks. If you took an average win total of each group of 4 picks, you get the following...

Picks 1-4: Avg wins 86.6
Picks 5-8: Avg wins 82.0
Picks 9-12: Avg wins 79.7
Picks 13-16: Avg wins 78.8
Picks 17-20: Avg wins 81.9
Picks 21-24: Avg wins 77.1

In aggregate, for picks 5-24, the average wins is 80.

The average win total for selected draft positions...
Pick 1 average wins was 81.4
Pick 6 average wins was 81.3
Pick 10 average wins was 80.8
Pick 17 average wins was 86.2
Pick 20 average wins was 84.4
Pick 24 average wins was 80.8.

thejuice6 does a really good job making his themes fair to those that enter late.
9/15/2021 5:29 PM (edited)
Here is a list of the top 16 teams. The right-handed column is the pick#...
.
Rank Team Name League Owner Wins Losses Pick#
----------- ----------------------------------------------------- ----------- ---------------------- ----------- ----------- -----------
1 BOS 1912-56, Williams x 2 4 schwarze 108 54 17
2 07-60 White Sox 9 Jtpsops 105 57 3
3 Chicago White Sox (1905-1958) 9 pedrocerrano 104 58 15
4 16-08 Two Chuck Chuck 6 redcped 103 59 19
5 CLE 1907-48, Joss x 2 7 schwarze 103 59 3
6 09-37 Pete and Re-Pete 9 redcped 102 60 22
7 Cleveland Indians (1956-2020) 7 pedrocerrano 100 62 8
8 PHI 1917-09, Klein x 2 6 schwarze 100 62 20
9 79-16 Vote For Pedros 4 redcped 100 62 15
10 1961-2004 Braves 10 kstober 99 63 3
11 Atlanta Braves 10 darny10 98 64 24
12 06-37 Joe's Got a Babe on Each Arm 1 redcped 98 64 14
13 NYG (1906-1927) 2 markeking 96 66 14
14 STL 1948-00, Musial x 2 5 schwarze 96 66 4
15 65-09 Barry Bonds' Celebrity Walkathon 2 redcped 96 66 11
16 Juice Red Sox (1957-2003) 4 calhoop 96 66 3
9/15/2021 5:32 PM (edited)
Ups and Downs...

Out of 20 teams in the first round, only THREE of them made their particular league's playoffs. Bleeeech...

Of those three, however, all three made it past the first round. Fantastic!

Then those three all were eliminated in the second round. Bleeeech...


9/20/2021 1:52 PM
Posted by thejuice6 on 9/20/2021 1:52:00 PM (view original):
Ups and Downs...

Out of 20 teams in the first round, only THREE of them made their particular league's playoffs. Bleeeech...

Of those three, however, all three made it past the first round. Fantastic!

Then those three all were eliminated in the second round. Bleeeech...


Despite having 5 of the top 15 teams, I only got one team into a WS. Playoffs are unpredictable.
9/20/2021 6:06 PM
It's pretty much a given that the average number of wins by the World Series participants will be lower than the average number of wins by all playoff teams. It's one thing if it happened occasionally, but it happens ALL THE TIME. I mean, what's the point of crushing the regular season when it's a near certainty that your dominant team will lose to some mediocre team? Check out these numbers from this tournament...
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League 1
98, 91, 91 win teams eliminated (World Series features 90 wins vs 88 wins) - Both W.S. teams are wildcards
.
League 2
96, 96, 95 win teams eliminated (95 wins vs 82 wins) - Wildcard vs #3 seed
.
League 3
95, 94, 91 wins teams eliminated (89 wins vs 88 wins) - #2 seed vs #3 seed
.
League 4
108, 100 win teams eliminated (96 wins vs 93 wins) - #2 seed vs #2 seed
.
League 5
96, 95 win teams eliminated (89 wins vs 87 wins) - #2 seed vs wildcard
.
League 6
103, 92 win teams eliminated (100 wins vs 88 wins) - Wildcard vs #2 seed.
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League 7
103, 100, 95, 94, 93 win teams eliminated (84 wins vs 81 wins) - Ridiculous (#3 seed vs #3 seed)
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League 8
93 win team eliminated (90 wins vs 84 wins) - #2 seed vs wildcard.
.
League 9
105 win team eliminated... Finally, a league where two *good* teams are in the World Series. 102 wins (#1 seed) vs 104 wins (#2 seed)
.
League 10
99 win team eliminated (98 wins vs 93 wins) - #1 seed vs #2 seed (reasonable)

So, out of twenty #1 seeds, exactly two made it to the World Series. Four teams with 84 or fewer wins made it.

9/20/2021 9:38 PM
At least in this tournament there is a big reward for regular-season success. But if those results are the norm in all leagues, then something is a little off for sure.
9/20/2021 10:07 PM
Depends on team makeup too. There's often been debates about whether to build a team that can win 100+, or build a team that can sneak in, but dominate the playoffs. In the playoffs, you can drop your 4&5 starters and even use low IP SPs that you've been using as relievers in your playoff rotation. I do agree it probably happens more in WIS than it should, but each instance needs to be assessed individually.
9/20/2021 11:28 PM
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thejuice6 2021 Tournament - Standings Update Topic

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