i feel like double teams are one of the things i understand least in this game, one of the only settings where i am like man, i have to be leaving money on the table here. i would just defer to others, but i find most of the opinions out there on double teams to be even less palatable than my own.
my overall take is that double teams aren't that powerful in this game, neither in the pros nor the cons. i definitely agree the 2x double team has too little impact on the remaining 3 players, and it doesn't seem to me like double teams are robustly linked to things like bh/pass, the number of scorers on the court, or any of that. it feels to me like merely, there is a small hit to efficiency and volume of the targeted player(s), and a small benefit to everyone else, that is done in a superficial way. that might just be me hedging against not really knowing what is going on though.
i generally will double team a high enough volume scorer (a clear team leader at 20ppg or higher). sometimes i do it automatically, but i guess that's really the regular season when i don't care. in the post season i kinda waffle a lot - if the guy isn't that good, or is already well defended, i do sometimes decline even on seemingly perfect opportunities. i tend to use double teams more to cover weaknesses than to double down on strengths, and i have some decently plausible rationale for doing so, but i'm not sure that's the right move. that is the main thrust of what i do though - 1 really high scorer most of the time (i avoid doubling multiple players in most cases, but not always), and to cover weaknesses. particularly if there is 1-2 good 3pt scorers, i will be inclined to double them to cover a weakness or allow me to cheat an extra 1-2 on the negative side. it often seems to do nothing, but it seems to help some. or if i have one really crappy defender, i will sometimes double team there against a good scorer, even not an excessive one, to try to cover.
importantly, i only use the always setting. the if leading scorer setting just seems so awful. supposedly, overly double teaming eventually works against you, according to stuff written about it somewhere. who knows if that's true. so maybe ILS could help with that - but if so, we'd see the double double teaming causing clear damage, one would think? anyway if you kinda think down the main line of how this stuff probably works, it just seems like a disaster. that said, if double teams aren't very meaningful, a double team setting that is a disaster may not hurt you much. in short, if a guy starts with a hot hand, now he's leading scorer, feedback is going to come smite him anyway. the worst thing you can do is reduce his volume, reduce the opportunities for a reversion to mean. so why would you double team at precisely that moment? just doesn't make sense to me.
there's a bunch of good and really good coaches out there who advocate for the ILS... but i would just say in general, there's about 1000 things to do right for a team, and the absolute best coaching ever done didn't get anywhere close to nailing them all. so certainly myself and other more successful coaches are screwing up constantly, and i'm just not sure double teams are meaningful enough for any of us to have any confidence we are moving the needle in the right direction, rather than the wrong one? i mean, i'm sure there are coaches who believe they are moving it in the right direction. but i remain skeptical?
10/26/2021 11:41 PM (edited)