and how do I prevent it from happening again?
RECRUIT - Projected DI
Scholarships: Available 3
Budget: Scouting: $13,568 Recruiting: $7,162


Gerald Coombs
Eligible
6'11" | 226 lbs. | 2.9 GPA
Transfer from Texas Tech
Category:
POSRATING
C633
Scouting Level 4
2 Years RemainingTransfer PlayerGuaranteed StarterGuaranteed MinutesScholarship Offer
This recruit has signed with Valparaiso

• Ratings
• Preferences
• Recruit
• Considering
• History
• Note

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
New Mexico State	Qhadow123	DI	C-	Very High	Yes	67%
Valparaiso	wiredon65	DI	B+	High	Yes	33%

a 3 sided dice rolled a 1. not much you can do to prevent such things in the future... it happens quite often. d1 is intense, expect to compete hard for recruits (and roll some dice) every season.

Valpo on the rise in Phelan. I see you snatching up dem cruits. Go Cards!

67% is not 100%

Take the anger and push it down, deep inside. Hold onto it. Be an HD veteran.

Posted by gillispie on 12/27/2021 5:40:00 PM (view original):
a 3 sided dice rolled a 1. not much you can do to prevent such things in the future... it happens quite often. d1 is intense, expect to compete hard for recruits (and roll some dice) every season.

Exactly.

All good advice here. Especially mlitney's!

I try telling all the people that reach out to me for help, that all you can do, is to put yourself in a position to lead the roll. Evaluating preferences, understanding who your competition is (or will be), processing what you see correctly, and recruiting with good judgement. If you do all of that and lead your roll(s) odds, you can't do anything more. The game takes it from there. You will lose some that you lead. You will win some when you're trailing. It just is what it is

It's hard to tell you exactly what to do, without knowing more info: how many AP did you use? How many HV, CV? How many cycles did this take (I ask since sometimes transfers come and go/sign very quickly)? If it only took 2-3 cycles, there is not much you can do to react. If you went all in (20 HV and 1 CV) and still lost, then it was just a factor of the prestige and the other coach also going all in (or close to it).

If it took many sessions, then you should have known there was not much you can do... with such a prestige disadvantage, it's a big uphill battle. It is always a bummer when the roll should have gone your way 67% of the time.... On the flip side, you may win some of those when you are on the 33%.

I had a guy last season sign with the school that had 12% chance... I had 32, someone else had 37, and a fourth guy had 19... but we all lost!

You easily could have had him, since I basically got him for free. I only put 212 AP a start and 25 on him.

It took 5 sessions for him to sign. You likely had 2 or 3 sessions open where you could have put visits on him. Use that $7,162 of recruiting money and throw some visits at him.