I have the #2 pick in upcoming draft, but scouting at 15. Considering trying for Type D next year but some budget limitations. Wondering if the different signability tiers impact what they might ask for above slot?

For example, all else being equal, is it likely that “Probably won’t sign” would ask for more than “Undecided” who would ask for more than “Looking to be drafted …”? Or is there no way to forecast that?

Yes. All the signability stuff matters. If a guy is anything but "looking to sign. Will sign for slot money.", then he will ask for more than slot money.

"Probably wont sign" guys usually ask for 5 to 8 million.
Others will usually ask for a certain percentage higher than slot.

Just what I was looking for, thanks.

Posted by tlowster on 1/12/2022 1:38:00 PM (view original):
Yes. All the signability stuff matters. If a guy is anything but "looking to sign. Will sign for slot money.", then he will ask for more than slot money.

"Probably wont sign" guys usually ask for 5 to 8 million.
Others will usually ask for a certain percentage higher than slot.

Depends where you are picking as well. Top 5 guys that probably won't sign may ask initially for as much as 10 where as it could be more like 7 for mid first round picks and 5-6 for late first round picks. Again, it all varies but their initial offer is going to be expensive.

If you want to punt and you have at least 10mm in prospect payroll, your best bet is the draft a "probably won't sign" guy. In fact, if you can find a "probably won't sign" guy who has a mother as his consultant, that is your absolute best bet.

That’s the thing, not sure I’ll have 10M, so weighing options. Thanks again.