Not a complete newb here but still don't quite get the nuances of recruiting. D 1 level discussion in case their are differences.

How much of recruiting is purely formulaic vs some amount of random luck? In other words, if all of the preferences align perfectly for two teams vying for a player and both teams have maxed out at the same time on AP, campus visit, and home visits and both made the same promises.....would the higher prestige team win virtually every time? Obviously my assumption is the greater disparity in prestige would result in the higher probability the better team would win.

Also have read about "poaching" prospects where I think a team comes in late and maxes out on HV to steal a player that it hasn't recruited very much in prior days. My question is does the late timing (in bulk) of the HVs provide some kind of advantage over a team that has made the similar effort in earlier periods? I hope there is no built in advantage to the poaching approach as that would seem a bit off to me. I understand if the poaching team is a better fit and better program that they will likely win the recruit if the late effort equals or exceeds any other teams. But i'm hoping there is no inherent advantage to waiting until the last minute and moving in a big way.

Thanks for any input!

no advantage or disadvantage to timing, from a recruiting numbers standpoint. obviously there are psychological or game theory advantages and disadvantages to early/late recruiting.

when you ask... if the two teams all-in'd at the same time, same prefs, would the slightly higher prestige team win all the time? i am slightly confused because the next line you say, your assumption is, the greater disparity, the greater the odds. overall i read this two different ways...

what i'll say is, there is zero 'luck' outside of the 'luck' of who you happen to be battling and the true luck of the dice roll. with all else equal, the higher prestige team would be ahead in 100% of the scenarios. but if they are slightly higher in prestige, this might only shake out to a 55 over 45% advantage, or 60/40, or so forth.

the way recruiting works, and has always worked, is that when you do an action, the action is converted to a number of points, which is multiplied by the relevant multiplier, and this number gets added to your total score for that player. at the end of recruiting for this player, those total scores are compared to figure out the end situation. today, if those scores are close, you get a % chance. but there is no randomness to like, you did a HV and maybe you got 10 points, maybe you got 50. its all very deterministic.

just to note, there used to be a slight, per cycle multiplier on top of your effort, so that recruiting late was less effective, but this is gone.

thank you. just to confirm and clarify (sorry for the confusion), if the math says one team has a 55% chance and another 45%, I assume the "dice roll" would provide a 55% chance which means 4.5 times out of ten the 45% chance team would win the recruit (mathematically over the long term).

Thanks!

Not sure what gil is sipping this morning. There's MASSIVE luck involved. As a coach, your goal is to do everything you can to get yourself in position to LEAD the roll. From there, we're at the mercy each and every time of the "dice roll luck". Sure, it's weighted luck. Influenced luck. But when you can lose rolls when you're 79/21 leading, or winning rolls when it's reversed, there's massive amounts of luck involved. Good luck and bad luck

I guess it depends on ones definition of the word "luck".

Posted by topdogggbm on 1/31/2022 5:28:00 AM (view original):
Not sure what gil is sipping this morning. There's MASSIVE luck involved. As a coach, your goal is to do everything you can to get yourself in position to LEAD the roll. From there, we're at the mercy each and every time of the "dice roll luck". Sure, it's weighted luck. Influenced luck. But when you can lose rolls when you're 79/21 leading, or winning rolls when it's reversed, there's massive amounts of luck involved. Good luck and bad luck

I guess it depends on ones definition of the word "luck".

has anyone ever figured out what the max one can be ahead (or behind) is before the leading team does not coin flip? I for example, have not been part of a 79/21 random number coin flip, I guess I thought that at some point, like 75% or so, the leading team wins, with no random number generator coin flip.

I just had an example where I was ahead 69/31, and even in that case the team on the low end was only considered 'high', no longer very high?

also, related, does anyone know at what point when one is behind, does HIGH turn into VERY HIGH (recruiting, not overinduldging recreationally)? I'd guess that tipping point is somewhere around 62/38, but I would have thought some of you who are paying close attention, probably have figured this out?

Posted by oldresorter on 1/31/2022 9:21:00 AM (view original):

Posted by topdogggbm on 1/31/2022 5:28:00 AM (view original):
Not sure what gil is sipping this morning. There's MASSIVE luck involved. As a coach, your goal is to do everything you can to get yourself in position to LEAD the roll. From there, we're at the mercy each and every time of the "dice roll luck". Sure, it's weighted luck. Influenced luck. But when you can lose rolls when you're 79/21 leading, or winning rolls when it's reversed, there's massive amounts of luck involved. Good luck and bad luck

I guess it depends on ones definition of the word "luck".

has anyone ever figured out what the max one can be ahead (or behind) is before the leading team does not coin flip? I for example, have not been part of a 79/21 random number coin flip, I guess I thought that at some point, like 75% or so, the leading team wins, with no random number generator coin flip.

I just had an example where I was ahead 69/31, and even in that case the team on the low end was only considered 'high', no longer very high?

also, related, does anyone know at what point when one is behind, does HIGH turn into VERY HIGH (recruiting, not overinduldging recreationally)? I'd guess that tipping point is somewhere around 62/38, but I would have thought some of you who are paying close attention, probably have figured this out?

60.1% moves you from VH/VH to VH/H.
80.1% moves you from VH/H to VH/M