Lol, I have the team with the lowest projected win total. And I can't even argue it.

Ron,

I have your 1986 team ranked in the bottom 3 in the AL in both ERC# and OPS#. Although they are a top 3 team on defense.

One of the things I didn't factor in to my rankings is speed and stolen bases. Clearly, your 1986 team (with Coleman, E.Davis, Ozzie, Butler, etc.) was indirectly penalized the most from this omission.

I also didn't look at who the owner was when I ran the numbers. Even if I did, I'm not sure how I would accurately adjust the numbers based on who is running the team.

When I ran the numbers, I didn't pay any attention to the current standings.

Now, thru 10 games, I am comparing my projections to the *early* current standings. Overall, I think my projections aren't too far off (at least in the order of standings within the division). Obviously, I am going to miss on some teams. The biggest miss currently seems to be on the AL Central and AL West of League 4. I know it's early and things can change, but I seem to be way off on these two divisions. I had the AL West to be much stronger of the two divisions and through 10 games, it's the opposite. At least I got the order somewhat right for the AL West. The current division standings order for the AL Central is the exact opposite of my projection. It's still early.

To no surprise to anybody who's been on here long enough, as soon as I posted these projections, my teams proceeded to go a combined 24-36, including a 4-11 run last night.... the worst single session I've ever had in these juice tournaments.

It's kind of fun reading through all of this, after the season has played out. My projections weren't too shabby most of the time, although as one might expect, I was WAYYY off on a few teams/divisions. (Also, my predictions were prior to adjusting to the actual free agents selected)

Didn't think the 1894 squad would have a sub .250 win %.

Final projection vs actual comparison... I also included the Expected Wins based on the Exp Win%. Draw your own conclusions...
.

LG #1	..	Year	..	Owner	..	Pick#	..	Proj W	..	Actual W	..	Exp W
NL East		1896		joerat1		20		86.1		95		91.7
NL East		1895		firesalt		19		81.7		69		70.5
NL East		1894		razorclams		17		73.2		39		41.8
NL East		1898		kstober		23		71.1		81		80.0
.
NL Central		1901		schwarze		11		90.7		94		94.4
NL Central		1903		nocomm999		18		81.6		83		87.2
NL Central		1899		thejuice6		5		77.6		65		54.8
NL Central		1900		calhoop		16		77.3		84		87.6
.
NL West		1902		schwarze		2		95.2		105		106.3
NL West		1904		mllama54		6		81.1		85		81.8
NL West		1905		kstober		14		79.7		87		89.1
NL West		1906		glowguy		22		76.7		84		91.2
.
AL East		1911		redcped		3		90.6		87		92.3
AL East		1910		nocomm999		1		82.8		103		96.9
AL East		1908		Chisock		12		79		70		71.6
AL East		1912		mllama54		21		73.4		67		70.3
.
AL Central		1913		schwarze		7		87.7		77		73.4
AL Central		1919		pedrocerrano		8		85.6		86		95.4
AL Central		1914		DarthDurron		10		80.7		84		87.6
AL Central		1917		SteveIzzy		15		69.8		79		76.3
.
AL West		1924		crazyamos		4		90.6		92		82.5
AL West		1920		redcped		9		81.7		91		97.2
AL West		1925		toysboys		13		80.6		74		73.7
AL West		1922		pmars2001		24		69.5		63		66.6
.
.
LG #2	..	Year	..	Owner	..	Pick#		Proj W	..	Actual W		Exp W
NL East		1928		nocomm999		7		92.8		86		88.9
NL East		1927		redcped		5		89.7		86		84.7
NL East		1931		kstober		20		78.8		86		88.3
NL East		1926		Chisock		22		72.2		85		86.3
.
NL Central		1933		pedrocerrano		2		98.9		82		87.3
NL Central		1937		DarthDurron		9		84		88		86.5
NL Central		1935		Jtpsops		19		76		90		90.1
NL Central		1936		markeking		8		74.5		65		66.9
.
NL West		1939		mllama54		11		87.5		75		74.7
NL West		1940		schwarze		14		82.1		73		71.1
NL West		1943		thejuice6		24		70.9		79		78.2
NL West		1942		3dayrotation		12		64.8		71		66.3
.
AL East		1944		ronthegenius		1		97.6		99		95.4
AL East		1945		schwarze		21		81.3		74		74.2
AL East		1946		toysboys		16		81.2		91		88.3
AL East		1947		thejuice6		6		79.7		91		80.7
.
AL Central		1951		schwarze		10		80.7		88		89.9
AL Central		1950		redcped		13		79.5		88		81.3
AL Central		1953		mllama54		23		75.6		57		69.2
AL Central		1952		joerat1		18		72.1		65		64.3
.
AL West		1954		schwarze		4		89.9		88		92.3
AL West		1957		DarthDurron		3		85.6		87		86.7
AL West		1955		calhoop		15		84.5		81		81.2
AL West		1956		glowguy		17		64.3		69		70.1
.
.
LG #3	..	Year	..	Owner	..	Pick#		Proj W	..	Actual W		Exp W
NL East		1958		crazyamos		9		81.9		86		76.3
NL East		1963		schwarze		22		80.3		86		85.1
NL East		1959		ybjsports		2		76.2		80		82.1
NL East		1960		redcped		20		74.5		72		74.5
.
NL Central		1968		glowguy		14		86.8		85		83.8
NL Central		1966		DarthDurron		6		86.7		83		81.6
NL Central		1967		nocomm999		17		77.3		82		88.3
NL Central		1964		darny10		15		72.3		70		71.6
.
NL West		1971		pedrocerrano		3		91.5		100		98.5
NL West		1969		schwarze		1		89.2		97		100.6
NL West		1970		mllama54		4		81.5		88		81.2
NL West		1972		thejuice6		21		73.7		56		54.8
.
AL East		1976		schwarze		8		91.8		87		92.5
AL East		1973		pmars2001		19		88.2		87		82.6
AL East		1977		parking31		5		75.4		77		71.9
AL East		1975		Jtpsops		24		64.6		72		72.7
.
AL Central		1982		schwarze		10		95.8		80		90.7
AL Central		1979		DarthDurron		16		92.6		75		79.7
AL Central		1978		SteveIzzy		11		87.6		81		82.3
AL Central		1983		toysboys		23		76.3		93		88.8
.
AL West		1987		wallypipp		7		85.7		81		78.7
AL West		1989		markeking		13		81.3		84		79.4
AL West		1985		kstober		12		74.4		76		75.7
AL West		1986		ronthegenius		18		58.2		66		68.0
.
.
LG #4	..	Year	..	Owner	..	Pick#		Proj W	..	Actual W		Exp W
NL East		1993		schwarze		9		82.4		92		85.9
NL East		1998		Chisock		19		78.1		75		72.9
NL East		1991		markeking		18		68.5		75		71.0
NL East		1994		3dayrotation		23		63.9		80		81.2
.
NL Central		1996		schwarze		14		92.1		89		91.7
NL Central		2002		pmars2001		3		83		83		82.0
NL Central		2001		DarthDurron		13		81.2		87		83.8
NL Central		1999		toysboys		21		73.4		87		87.3
.
NL West		2005		pedrocerrano		8		95		83		86.7
NL West		2003		mllama54		2		92.5		66		64.3
NL West		2006		nocomm999		11		84.1		91		81.5
NL West		2004		kstober		20		77.9		79		85.2
.
AL East		2011		schwarze		1		102		88		95.4
AL East		2008		redcped		12		90.2		79		76.8
AL East		2009		ybjsports		5		74.6		77		76.6
AL East		2007		SteveIzzy		15		70.2		93		88.3
.
AL Central		2014		schwarze		24		79.2		79		75.7
AL Central		2010		ronthegenius		17		78.6		79		81.0
AL Central		2012		thejuice6		23		69.7		70		73.7
AL Central		2013		urband		10		59.3		71		72.7
.
AL West		2020		DarthDurron		4		104.6		78		80.7
AL West		2016		calhoop		6		85		81		82.8
AL West		2018		Jtpsops		7		83.8		84		82.1
AL West		2021		joerat1		16		74.8		78		83.1

The regression correlation coefficient between the projected wins and the actual wins is +0.46. This isn't terrible and is slightly better than the +0.35 coefficient factor using the draft pick order. If I had the time, I would plug in the actual player usage (instead of my projected player usage) and update the free agent selection and re-calculate my standard deviations and apply to the projected wins formula to see how much (if any) improvement there is.