Round 5 - Team Selection Strategy Topic

Pick #17, League #1
1941-50 Tigers/Indians (+0.2 hitting, 0.0 pitching, -0.5 defense)
Free Agent: 1941 Ted Williams

Whew... that was close. With pick #16, pmars2001 grabbed the 1921-30 Cubs/A's. I guess I probably would've taken them too had he taken the last team in the AL Central. With a pick this late, I am very relieved to get what my numbers say is a league average team. This team actually has 3 of the decade's top 15 starting pitchers (Newhouse, Feller, Gromek), but the bullpen is terrible, so be prepared to read a bunch of "I blew another 8-run 9th-inning lead" posts.

This team was the only team where I had the first overall free agent pick. I strongly considered selecting '50 Jim Hearn, just to have a chance at holding leads, but that's not how I roll. Roger Wolff was the best SP available, but I don't have a lot of experience with him and I already got burned with Nels Potter and Paul Derringer in round 4 so I passed. I can't pass up adding 1941 Ted Williams to an already strong offense. Hoping to stay competitive enough to maybe get that last round 6 spot.
4/17/2022 6:17 PM
Answer to Schwarze's question about picking Detroit/Cleveland over the Giants/Brooklyn choice for the 13th overall pick and the last pick in the NL Central. No question that the Giants/Brooklyn choice would have better pitching but I really like playing good hitting teams. By adding the Ruth 20 FA (DH) to an outfield of Cobb 11, Jackson 11, and Speaker 20 and a pretty good Lajoie season I am hoping that the great hitting combined with some decent but not great pitching will lead to at least 85 wins and a spot in the final. Who knows what will happen but it won't be boring.
4/17/2022 7:51 PM
Well, your team will definitely score runs. Ignoring free agents, that combo's offense was already ranked #1 among the 8 deadball teams.
4/17/2022 7:54 PM
Posted by schwarze on 4/17/2022 2:39:00 PM (view original):
Pick #4, League #2
1961-70 Orioles/Braves (+1.7 hitting, +0.6 pitching, -0.4 defense)
Free Agent: 1968 Luis Tiant

I will write about all my league 2 picks first. After I selected the 2001-10 Yankees/GIants, nocomm999 was very happy to select the 2010-21 Dodgers/Brewers. Also, ronthegenius tells me he also would have also selected that same team with the top pick. Now, maybe I am second guessing myself a bit. I was a bit surprised that with pick #3, joerat1 selected the 1961-70 Tigers/Dodgers. I had that team above average, but way behind the team, I selected. There are actually three teams in the 1961-70's division that are above average, so the division race will be tough, but I can't pass up the team I have ranked #1 in the N.L. Now, I even get to move up one spot in the free agent draft. I am also thinking about my next two picks at #9 and #10. I am hopeful that two of 2011-21 Indians/Nationals, 1991-00 Red Sox/Astros or 1981-90 Mets/Royals will be left when I pick again.

The first two free agents selected were '61 Mantle and '64 Horlen. I was a bit surprised glowguy drafted the 61-70 Giants/Pirates over the 61-70 Yankees/Phillies. My free agent choice was between '68 Luis Tiant and '69 Rico Petrocelli (a big improvement over Mark Belanger). I already had an offense that I had ranked way above average so I decided that the stud starting pitcher was too good to pass up. When I first selected this team, I assumed I would add '64 Dean Chance to cut down on opposing HRs but Tiant's whip advantage was too much to pass up.

The big downside of this team is it is very right handed. Gentile and Mathews are the only everyday lefty bats, although I will mix in Buford (S) in the OF and B.Powell (L) at DH. The pitching is very strong though. I would be extremely disappointed if this team missed the playoffs.
I would be surprised if I went with 61-70 Yankees/Phillies since that was not an option. The consideration was YankeesTwins vs Giants/Pirates.
Since I had first pick free agent by adding Mantle to this already great group of hitters would make things interesting. Mantle, Mays, Clemente in the outfield. McCovey, Stargell/ Cepeda DH, Dietz/Haller or Pagliaroni C, Jim Ray Hart 3B, Alley. SS and Mazeroski at 2B.
Pitching with Marichal and Gaylord Perry with a good group of secondary starters and solid relief pitching. The defense is above average as well.
4/17/2022 8:47 PM
Right, I meant Yankees/Twins. I had them ranked third in that division (pre-free agent). You still get Mantle and can add Juan Marichal as a FA. It may work out. Inputting free agents now, so we'll see how everything shakes out.
4/17/2022 10:18 PM
I'm not going to project exact win-loss records this round. Instead, I will project division winners, wildcard teams and a few other "bubble teams". In some cases, it's too close to call so I listed multiple teams.

League 1 - National League
NL East (1901-10) Winner - Giants/Naps (pick 3)
NL Central (1911-20) Winner - White Sox/Phillies (pick 1)
NL West (1921-30) Winner - Yankees/Indians (pick 4)
NL Wildcard - 1911-20 Red Sox/Pirates (pick 10)

Other teams that have a shot at wildcard and/or advancing to round 6
1901-10 Athletics/Tigers (pick 8)
1901-10 Cubs/Reds (pick 18)
1911-20 Indians/Tigers (pick 13)

League 1 - American League
AL East (1931-40) Winner - Yankees/Red Sox (pick 6)
AL Central (1941-50) Winner - Yankees/Pirates (pick 2)
AL West (1951-60) Winner - Cardinals/Indians (pick 5)
AL Wildcard - 1931-40 Giants/Pirates (pick 9)

Other teams that have a shot at wildcard and/or advancing to round 6
1941-50 Cardinals/Reds (pick 11)
1941-50 Dodgers/Braves (pick 15)
1941-50 Tigers/Indians (pick 17)

League 2 - National League
NL East (1961-70) Winner - Orioles/Braves (pick 4)
NL Central (1971-80) Winner - Yankees/Red Sox (pick 16)
NL West (1981-90) Winner - Mets/Royals (pick 9) or Red Sox/Dodgers (pick 15) or Athletics/Cardinals (pick 6) *
NL Wildcard - 1961-70 Tigers/Dodgers (pick 3)

Other teams that have a shot at wildcard and/or advancing to round 6
1961-70 Reds/Cardinals (pick 5)
1971-80 Dodgers/Athletics (pick 11)


League 2 - American League
AL East (1991-00) Winner - Red Sox/Astros (pick 8) or 1991-00 Braves/Dodgers (pick 7) *
AL Central (2001-10) Winner - Yankees/Giants (pick 1)
AL West (2011-21) Winner - Dodgers/Brewers (pick 2)
AL Wildcard - 2011-21 Indians/Nationals (pick 10)

Other teams that have a shot at wildcard and/or advancing to round 6
2010-21 Yankees/Braves (pick 22)
1991-00 Yankees/Blue Jays (pick 12)

* Means too close to call.
4/18/2022 10:48 AM (edited)
I listed 19 teams in the 16 playoff positions. How many of the 16 actual playoff teams will I get right?
--> I expect 2 or 3 of the "other teams that have a shot" will make the playoffs

I listed 29 of the 48 teams as advancing or having a shot to advance. Of the 19 teams I left off, how many will advance to round 6?
--> I would like to think I'm not off that much, but I will probably miss 1 or 2 teams.

Will any of the 19 teams I left off actually win their division?
--> That would be a huge miss on my part. I'll guess 0 or 1.
4/18/2022 10:27 AM
Missed that this thread had started, so I'll chime in briefly on my 4 teams. With two picks in each league, but none of them really high, my goal was primarily finding teams that could break .500 and get me a couple shots in the final round. Playoffs with more than 1 or 2 tops feel really unlikely, and I could even foresee getting shut out of the postseason. I decided if possible at all to take one team in the NL and AL in each league to spread things out, and hopefully I didn't overlook a much better team with one of my second picks.

League 1, Pick 11:
A.L. Central - Cardinals/Reds, 1941-1950
FA: 1942 Ted Williams

At this stage every division had at least one team, so I tried to avoid being a 3rd team in any division. One of the top two picks is in this division, which isn't too encouraging, but I have always found the 40s-era Cardinals to be strong in theme leagues. I actually liked the Red Sox-Giants in this division too, and I was pretty surprised they weren't taken at all.

The strength of this lineup is at 1B and OF, but none of the upgrades at the weaker positions felt as impactful as dropping a Ted Williams into the lineup with Musial. Schoendienst and Marion don't hit much, but they've got great gloves up the middle. Mize and Kurowski provide nice bookends at the corners, though.

I'm not exactly sure how I'll deploy some of these Cardinals pitchers who could be tandem pieces or just heavily used in the pen. Brecheen and Cooper will anchor the rotation, and Hearn will be the dominant reliever. The rest is filling roles. I'm playing in Crosley instead of Sportsman's Park because I don't think enough of my guys hit 2B to take advantage of that +3. So a fairly neutral park it is.


League 1, Pick 18:
N.L. East - Orphans-Cubs/Reds, 1901-10
FA: 1908 Honus Wagner

At this stage of a draft like this, you take what you can get and playoffs are just something you hope for. I definitely was staying in the NL to split my teams and focused on all the remaining options. The pitching here sold me, and I felt the other two remaining options in the division were much weaker.

This era Cubs teams at least offer some excellent SP, and they should prevent the later-decades teams from pounding out homers. A rotation of Brown-Reulbach-Overall should keep scoring pretty low, though there's really no great relievers to follow them. The 15 best pitcher seasons to choose from were all Cubs, so the Reds are mostly going to be wasted picks. I've got more SP than I have any use for and a ridiculous 2,591 innings with a 1.55 ERA!

The offense is led by Cy Seymour (.377/.429/.559) and Mike Donlin (.352/.420/.516), and we'll help them out with the second-best FA Wagner option. The lineup could have used a 2B upgrade too (and catcher, really), but Wagner was just a much better choice.

I thought about playing in Palace, but I actually think other teams would take better advantage of it as I don't have many 2B on the roster and my pitchers can take care of preventing HR on their own. West Side Grounds is just a basic neutral park instead.

League 2, Pick 6:
N.L. West - Athletics/Cardinals, 1981-90
FA: 1987 Tony Gwynn

So I built something like 12 teams to try to make the best choice here, and I still went with gut over some of the numbers. I was pretty surprised that the NL East already had 3 of the first 5 teams, which meant I needed to feel strongly I was taking a division winner here. I felt there were 3 choices in the NL Central I could be happy with (the A's-Dodgers pitching was extremely tempting, though it pains me as a fan who grew up loving those Dodgers that the lineup really left me unimpressed). On the AL side, the only division I would have wanted to pick in at this spot was the unoccupied East, but I liked 3 teams about equally there. And honestly, I liked a couple other teams a lot in the NL West too and just had to go with a feeling that the speed and defense on this team can be a difference-maker.

After Tudor the rotation is a bit less than overwhelming but all are solid. The bullpen is really good, led by the great 90 Eck. I've had some mixed results with 85 McGee, who is really the key guy in this offense. Clark and Canseco provide some power. Oquendo and Ozzie will grab everything up the middle. I went with Busch over Oakland Coliseum to minimize the homers on other teams that will have way more boppers than we do.

The guy I had no idea what to do with was '87 McGwire with his 49 homers and not much else. I would have probably used him at DH if I'd gone a different direction with my FA (a 3B upgrade over Lansford was definitely needed, but no one stood out once '81 Schmidt was gone). There were certainly much better hitting options at 2B or SS, but I was happy enough with the great gloves and switch hitters I had there. I figured Gwynn at the top of the order between Henderson and McGee promises to generate the best production with his average and speed. I hope my instincts were well founded on this team, which is supposed to be my best shot at getting into the final round.

League 2, Pick 13
A.L. Central - Braves/Twins, 2001-10
FA: 2005 Pedro Martinez

I wanted to split my teams again, so I focused on the remaining AL options at this spot. When schwarze took a third East team just before me, I ruled that division out. I had a lot of concerns about the remaining AL West choices (as schwarze has noted above, they lasted until picks 22-23), so I focused on the Central. I felt like the pitching staffs were similar enough, though passing on that Red Sox-Dodgers bullpen was really tough to do. I felt the Twins-Braves combo offered much better defense and speed with a nice balance in the lineup. I didn't need to fill any lineup holes, so I could just take the best FA pitcher, too.

The offense will be deep like the other teams in this league. The projected starters have just under 1.000 OPS, and everyone has power. The rotation after Santana isn't amazing, so hopefully Pedro plugs that gap well. It's not the insane Red Sox-Dodgers bullpen, but it's not too shabby. Playing in the Metrodome because it's a better fit than either Target or Turner for this squad.

I struggled a lot choosing my FA pitcher. I considered quite a few options, including schwarze's gleeful choice of Peavy right after mine. I might have blown that. Hopefully I've got enough for a team that advances even if the playoffs are a longshot.


Fun fact: Aside from the 1901-10 team laden with wasted salary, my other 3 rosters all came out between $143-144 million.



4/21/2022 7:35 PM
thejuice6 sent me the completed Round 5 rosters, so I updated the estimated playing time to account for the slightly different rosters. On average, the number of hitters per team that I had different was 4 and the number of pitchers I had different was 2. This isn't necessarily bad, since I may have simply assumed a different version of Hornsby or Pujols was rostered. The difference in pitchers wasn't significant either (end of bench type guys).

After recalculating everything, nothing in the above predictions really changed all that much. The biggest difference is the "1941-50 Cardinals/Reds". They have a really good shot at challenging for either the division or the wildcard.
4/25/2022 4:26 PM
Posted by schwarze on 4/25/2022 4:26:00 PM (view original):
thejuice6 sent me the completed Round 5 rosters, so I updated the estimated playing time to account for the slightly different rosters. On average, the number of hitters per team that I had different was 4 and the number of pitchers I had different was 2. This isn't necessarily bad, since I may have simply assumed a different version of Hornsby or Pujols was rostered. The difference in pitchers wasn't significant either (end of bench type guys).

After recalculating everything, nothing in the above predictions really changed all that much. The biggest difference is the "1941-50 Cardinals/Reds". They have a really good shot at challenging for either the division or the wildcard.
To celebrate we started 0-3.
4/25/2022 10:59 PM
Thru 18 games, 7 of my 10 teams are .500 or better. The three teams below. 500 are my first 3 overall picks... so clearly I know nothing.
5/1/2022 12:00 AM
Thru 85 games, let's see how my predictions are doing.. Red is in playoffs, Blue is out of playoffs

League 1 - National League
NL East (1901-10) Winner - Giants/Naps (pick 3) --> 2 games out of first
NL Central (1911-20) Winner - White Sox/Phillies (pick 1) --> First place, leads by 5 games, best record in league
NL West (1921-30) Winner - Yankees/Indians (pick 4) --> First place, by 1 game
NL Wildcard - 1911-20 Red Sox/Pirates (pick 10) --> 11 games over .500 but 6 games behind 11-20 Tigers/Indians

Other teams that have a shot at wildcard and/or advancing to round 6
1901-10 Athletics/Tigers (pick 8) --> 6 games out first in tough division
1901-10 Cubs/Reds (pick 18) --> 3 games out first in weak division
1911-20 Indians/Tigers (pick 13) --> In wildcard spot, 2nd best record in league

League 1 - American League
AL East (1931-40) Winner - Yankees/Red Sox (pick 6) --> 2 games out of first, but rallying after a very slow start
AL Central (1941-50) Winner - Yankees/Pirates (pick 2) --> 5 games out of first by leads wildcard by 2 games
AL West (1951-60) Winner - Cardinals/Indians (pick 5) --> 1 game out of first in very weak division (13 games under 500 despite + run differential)
AL Wildcard - 1931-40 Giants/Pirates (pick 9) --> Leads AL East by 2 games

Other teams that have a shot at wildcard and/or advancing to round 6
1941-50 Cardinals/Reds (pick 11) --> Over .500, 2 games out of wildcard in tough division
1941-50 Dodgers/Braves (pick 15) --> Over .500, 2 games out of wildcard in tough division
1941-50 Tigers/Indians (pick 17) --> Leads AL Central by 8 games

League 2 - National League
NL East (1961-70) Winner - Orioles/Braves (pick 4) --> Complete disaster, 5 games behind 5 wildcard
NL Central (1971-80) Winner - Yankees/Red Sox (pick 16) --> 4 games out of first, 2 behind wildcard
NL West (1981-90) Winner - Mets/Royals (pick 9) or Red Sox/Dodgers (pick 15) or Athletics/Cardinals (pick 6) *
--> A's/Cardinals in first by 5 games. Mets/Royals 2 games out of wildcard, RedSox/Dodgers in last place
NL Wildcard - 1961-70 Tigers/Dodgers (pick 3) --> Leads division by 7 games

Other teams that have a shot at wildcard and/or advancing to round 6
1961-70 Reds/Cardinals (pick 5) --> Last place in NL East
1971-80 Dodgers/Athletics (pick 11) --> Last place in NL CEntral


League 2 - American League
AL East (1991-00) Winner - Red Sox/Astros (pick 8) or 1991-00 Braves/Dodgers (pick 7) *
--> Red Sox/Astros in last place, Braves/Dodgers 8 games out of first, one game out of wildcard
AL Central (2001-10) Winner - Yankees/Giants (pick 1) --> Leads division by 1 game
AL West (2011-21) Winner - Dodgers/Brewers (pick 2) --> Leads division by 13 games, best record in league
AL Wildcard - 2011-21 Indians/Nationals (pick 10) --> Second in division, leads wildcard by 1 game

Other teams that have a shot at wildcard and/or advancing to round 6
2010-21 Yankees/Braves (pick 22) --> 13 games under 500
1991-00 Yankees/Blue Jays (pick 12) --> First place in AL East

* Means too close to call.
5/23/2022 12:59 PM
I detailed in the standings thread that my teams have a negative correlation to how early I drafted. The teams I drafted very high are not very good while the teams I drafted later are doing very well. After analyzing my teams' performance through 94 games, I find that there is a pretty strong correlation between how good my free agent player is performing vs my team's overall performance. Here are my 10 teams' records and the stats of the free agent selected.
.
1901-10 Giants/Indians + '01 Burkett
Record 51-43
Jesse Burkett .362 / .412 / .494
.
1911-20 Red Sox/Pirates + '20 Hornsby
Record 54-40
Rogers Hornsby .341 / ..397 / .511
.
1931-40 Giants/Pirates + '33 Foxx
Record 50-44
Jimmie Foxx .294 / .470 / .477
.
1941-50 Tigers/Indians + '41 Williams
Record 60-34
Ted Williams .367 / .500 / .662
.
1951-60 Cardinals/Indians + '58 Banks
Record 41-54
Ernie Banks .231 / .284 / .349
.
1961-70 Braves/Orioles + '68 Tiant
Record 46-48
Luis Tiant 10-8, 143 ip, 3.83 ERA
.
1981-90 Mets/Royals + '84 Sandberg
Record 46-48
Ryne Sandberg .223 / .278 / .375
.
1991-00 Yankees/Blue Jays + '96 Brown
Record 56-38
Kevin Brown 17-2, 145 ip, 3.78 ERA
.
2001-10 Yankees/Giants + .07 Peavy
Record 49-45
Jake Peavy 8-7, 129 ips, 4.34 ERA
.
2011-20 Indians/Nationals + '20 Lamet
Record 52-42
Dinelson Lamet 10-4, 94 ips, 3.82 ERA
5/26/2022 12:53 PM
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