First year in a league. $15M in college, $5M in high school. Will get to $20M and $0 next season. I;m considering punting so I can drafted more accurately recruited players at the top. I have the top overall pick, a compensation B pick and my own first pick in the 2nd round. Can I punt on all 3 or is the compensation pick a use it or lose it pick? Which types of players will be guaranteed to spurn my initial offer? Likely won’t sign, Mom as the agent? If I go this route I want to ensure I draft a player who will decline my first (and only) offer so I can pocket the pick(s). I don’t want to draft a 3rd round talent with the first overall pick, offer his asking price, which is twice slot, and have him accept.

Comp picks are use-or-lose. The others would net you a pick one slot below next season IF they decline your first offer and that offer meets their initial demands (someone can correct me if I'm a little off on that description)

It sounds like if I want to punt on my two first rounds, I set first round to very aggressive, supplemental to very conservative and round 2-5 as balanced. My top two ranked guys are prospects who won’t sign. First overall pick takes tough sign, supplemental pick skips the 2nd ranked player because he is a tough sign, 2nd round pick goes back to the 2nd ranked player, the tough sign, assuming he is still on the board. Sound strategy/approach?

if so, will drafting a “probably won’t sign” with Mom as the adviser, meeting their initial request, be the best path for pocketed picks?. Any risk they could actually accept the first offer?

There IS a (1%? 2%?) chance the player could accept. But most of the time not.

Also, if you're going to punt, make sure you have enough prospect money to afford the initial ask. My most recent draft, the 34th overall was a "May Sign", asked for $1.3M. The 98th Overall (2nd Round) was "Undecided", asked for $3.4M.

A first overall pick could ask for $8M-$9M.

Posted by mg050369 on 6/3/2022 11:59:00 AM (view original):
It sounds like if I want to punt on my two first rounds, I set first round to very aggressive, supplemental to very conservative and round 2-5 as balanced. My top two ranked guys are prospects who won’t sign. First overall pick takes tough sign, supplemental pick skips the 2nd ranked player because he is a tough sign, 2nd round pick goes back to the 2nd ranked player, the tough sign, assuming he is still on the board. Sound strategy/approach?

if so, will drafting a “probably won’t sign” with Mom as the adviser, meeting their initial request, be the best path for pocketed picks?. Any risk they could actually accept the first offer?

Your 2nd round pick may not net you your #2 ranked player. It is entirely possible that another team would draft him in the 31 other 1st round picks

Final question. Does adviser make a difference or Mom vs. agent makes no difference in sign ability if they are both “probably won’t sign”?

Mom is the only consultant that will give you 99% confidence that he will not sign.

Final update. Went with a tough sign and Mom with my 1 and 64 picks. Met both initial demands. 64th pick ($6M demand) declined, I pocket the pick. 1st overall ($6.5M) accepted my first offer! Live by the sword, die by the sword.