I have a RP that I took to his 3rd ARB. When I checked my FA's for next season I noticed he said "After taking me to ARB 3 times, free agency here I come". I am now talking to a team about trading him. This team is the defending World Champion with back to back WS wins under his belt. What are the chances of my RP signing with his new team after the trade?

As far as I can tell from asking the same question before and a couple of recent experiences, about 70-75% that he will sign.