i don't think head to head can be a factor because of the nature of the projection report. head to head makes sense when considering two teams, but not when forming a list like the projection report. if you take that away, i think its close to a toss up, from the info provided - but did not see the specifics myself - so missouri sounds reasonable to me (my main ? which was addressed by mr slam is how good are those top 100 wins because those specifics particularly are important in projection report)
i think its reasonable to say 'but head to head should be a factor' which i would be ok with, but the projection report is built for maximum transparency and head to head is not compatible with that. i think its reasonable IMO to do it either way, have a projection report or not, use head to head or not, i can see the argument either way.