I just played a solid, human-coached team in Concordia, Austin and delivered them a brutal 2nd-half beatdown. I don't really get it. It looks like maybe the coach forgot to gameplan, he ran a -3 against my team that's a solid shooting team. It's also a bad matchup for them, as they kinda bingball on their 2-guard and my SG is a stud defensively. With all that being said, I just can't remember anything quite this lopsided happening in a matchup between good teams since the probability smoothing algorithms were added to the game without injuries or foul trouble being involved. The part that I really don't get is the rebounding. My team is better at rebounding, and we play more rebound-friendly sets, but they also played -3 in the first half, -1 in the 2nd, while I played +3. We outrebounded them 50-29.

Is this just a massive outlier, or am I missing something? It's just not that often anymore that I'm really surprised by the outcome of a game, but this one just seemed like it fell well outside the normal range of results for this matchup.

Probably a combination of your opponent's defensive setting, tempo choice, and a favorable battle roll for you (or just consistently good luck for the duration of the game, if you don't want to believe in such a thing).

I see as many as a handful of these wacky sims on every team, every season, to be honest. Not all *exactly* this extreme, but pretty close. The rebounding here is especially telling. Probably exaggerated because of fatigue (tempo choice). But still goofy. As you noted, you do have a solid rebounding advantage, and should have won that matchup decisively, but 21 is an extreme figure. It's not like they were all in the yellow-red the whole game. I would have considered +8 to be about the upper limit of normal for you in rebounding and you obviously destroyed that here.