A follow-up to my earlier projections:
LG 1 1889-1890 Giants / Phillies - pick 15
There is a huge drop off from the top teams to the where I picked. I did as well as a I could, taking a 2 man rotation of Amos Rusie and Kid Gleason and a pretty strong offense. I learned from the first round where I had Silver King, it's that defense does matter so I wanted a relatively good SS in C/A Jack Glasscock. I put myself in the division with Silver King because I know his defense and even if King has an ERA of 3.50, his RA/9 will be closer to 4.50. Most everyone else avoided so I ended up being the 2nd team in that division. Prediction - 85 wins.
How it turned out: 89 wins, 8th in RS, 12th in RA
Rusie and Gleason were solid. They comprised 71% of the total innings and combined for a 4.30 ERA. All my other pitchers were considerably worse. Glasscock was ranked 11th among SS in fielding %, but I didn’t expect so many errors from my outfielders. Case in point 89 Mike Tiernan and 89 George Gore are both rated “D” in the outfield. However, Tiernan has a .896 fielding % and Gore has an .864 fielding % in RL. I should have paid better attention to that. Tiernan committed 31 errors and Gore had 49. On offense, I had one of the Roger Connors in the league that finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th in MVP for the league (mine was 2nd). Pedrocerrano’s Silver King had an ERA of 3.48 but a RA/9 of 5.42, even higher than I expected. It was a photo finish with pedro’s team edging me out by 2 games and I just missed out on the playoffs by 1 game.
LG 2 1907-1908 Naps / Red Sox - pick 6
I like this team. I double Nap Lajoie'ed it in the first round and rode it to a WS championship. I have A+ range at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and CF. The lower part of the lineup are not very good hitters though. SP is top notch with 08 Joss, 08 Cy Young, 07 Winter and 08 Steele. I even have a good bullpen. Prediction - 90 wins
How it turned out: 89 wins, 19st in RS, 1st in RA
Ok, so I overestimated how good my offense was. My Nap Lajoies were not the stud 01 or 04 seasons, but the much weaker 07 and 08 versions. I only had 3 regulars with an OPS over .700. I tinkered around with the lineup giving backups a chance, but nothing worked out. Much of my success laid on my defense (134+/17- plays) and my pitching. Joss won the Cy Young and Cy Young didn’t even place in his namesake award but pitched well, nonetheless. I was very close to my prediction, off by 1 win.
LG 3 1911-1912 Giants / Braves - pick 16
Can't be too picky with the #16 pick and this was the best available. I have a cloned Christy Mathewson along with Rube Marquard and Jeff Tesreau at my 4 man rotation which is solid. The lineup is average at best with no big bopper. Larry Doyle is my best hitter at .310/.397/.527. Underwhelming. Defense is ok. Pitching will keep me in games, but I'll need to score 5 runs a game to win. Prediction - 80 wins
How it turned out: 90 wins, 2ndt in RS, 18th in RA
I underestimated my lineup. True, I didn’t have a big hitter, but we were solid 1-9. My 9th hitter, Art Devlin ended up with a .337/.382/.401 slash line. And the whole bench had batting averages over .300. My pitching ended up being a 3 man rotation as Tesreau was dropped halfway through the season and finished with a 6.59 ERA. The other 3 had ERAs of 5.16, 4.58 and 5.32. My main reliever, Red Ames had a 4.93 ERA. All pretty mediocre. It was a fun team to play as I’m usually a pitching first guy and we did a lot better than I thought we would. Unfortunately, we missed the playoffs.
LG 4 1929-1930 Indians / Robins - pick 9
Loaded up on the offense on this one. A double Babe Herman, Lew Fonseca and Ed Morgan. Not household names and maybe they look better because of the era, but these guys can pack a punch. I one good pitcher in Dazzy Vance. The other guys are average. My bullpen sucks. I thought about cloning Dazzy Vance instead, but his 2nd iteration I thought was only marginally better than the guy he'd replace. Will be lots of high scoring games. Prediction - 83 wins
How it turned out: 87 wins, 9th in RS, 16th in RA
One of my other “hitting first” teams. Team played very well in the 2nd half, with a 13 game win streak at one point. The double Babe Herman’s worked out to a .978 and .961 OPS. Everyone was raking for the most part as well. On the pitching side, I had Dazzy Vance (4.16 ERA) and Watty Clark (5.70 ERA) were ok but Willis Hudlin (7.47 ERA) and Wes Farrell (6.11) ERA were not. My bullpen was equally as bad. Should I have chosen to clone Dazzy Vance instead? If I didn’t clone Herman, that means Johnny Frederick would have started and he managed a .849 OPS in backup duty. This was a super streaky team but all in all their expected win % was .516 or 83 wins – my prediction.
LG 5 1941-1941 Red Sox / Senators - pick 2
This was my only top 30 pick, well #30 to be exact. I somewhat regret this pick as I was using Schwarze spreadsheet and didn't do as much research as I should have. What I fell in love with, was the 2x Ted Williams. Also, the rest of the offense is ridiculous. My #9 hitter, Johhny Pesky has a .331/.375/.416 slash line. But oh my pitching. It's not like I didn't know what I was getting into, but it's bad. Starters 1-3 are respectable and i have 2 decent relief pitchers. But handing the ball to anyone else will be problematic. I really could win 90 or 80 games with this team, so I'll go down the middle and say: Prediction - 85 wins.
How it turned out: 95 wins, 3rd in RS, 14th in RA
I think I got lucky in the sense that I got good versions of my players. First, the double Ted was fantastic (1.128 OPS and 1.172 OPS). They were #1 and #2 in the MVP race where 42 Ted beat out 41 Ted. Where I think I got really lucky was the pitching of Hughson, Leonard, Dobson and Harris (4.76, 4.66, 4.12 and 5.31 ERAs respectively). I expected worse. Butland, Masterson, Sundra and Carrasquel (3.49, 4.80, 5.38 and 4.94 ERAs respectively) were better than I expected in the bullpen as well. My biggest misfire was my closer Early Wynn who had a 7.75 ERA vs a RL 1.58 ERA. I knew my offense would be good, I thought my pitching would be worse so overall it was a nice surprise.
LG 5 1945-1946 Cubs / Giants - pick 24
Like schwarze had said, very surprised to see this team here. I didn't scout out all the teams, but this seems like a team that should have been picked before #24. Stan Hack, 2x Phil Cavaretta, Ott, Mize, Pafko - very solid. Not homerun hitters, but high average, doubles and singles types hitters. And the pitching is good too with Ray Prim, Wyse, Borowy, Passeau and Schmidt all in the 2.40 - 2.68 ERA range. When I said this team may outperform my #2 pick I'm not kidding. Prediction -86 wins
How it turned out: 78 wins, 18th in RS, 5th in RA
My expected win % was actually .526 or 85 wins, so I wasn’t too far off. However, I should still be proud that a 24th round pick did this well. 5th in RA is pretty darn good. This was also the best fielding team in the league. On the downside, I didn’t have a great clone (Cavaretta .770 OPS). Also, my closer Junior Thompson ended with a 6.75 ERA and 2.29 whip vs 1.29 ERA and 1.21 whip in RL. He was 27 for 35 in save ops and had a 1-11 record. This is likely why the team underperformed its expected win %. My pitchers were a mixed bag with ERAs of 3.47, 4.53, 4.97, 5.13 and 6.18.
LG 6 1951-1952 Phillies / Athletics - pick 6
I think this team is mediocre. Highlights are Ashburn in his prime, Gus Zernial, Ferris Fain, Eddie Joost, 2X Robin Roberts, Schantz and Drew make up for a good rotation. My bullpen is otherwise OK and the bottom of my lineup is not great. Prediction - 78 wins.
How it turned out: 87 wins, 18th in RS, 1st in RA
This team was incredibly hot in the first half and cooled in the 2nd half. Still managed a 1st place finish. Most of my hitters were up to par or better. My only weakness was my DH Del Ennis with a .684 OPS. 2X Roberts and Shantz were solid. Karl Drew was dropped when I didn’t need a 4th starter anymore and was only a minor disappointment in the rotation. My closer and setup A had 3.30 and 3.94 ERAs respectively. The rest of the bullpen was bad, but I was able to minimize their impact to low leverage situations for the most part. Defense was also tied for 1st in fielding % which helped with the #1 ranking in RA. I’m very happy to be wrong by 9 wins.
LG 7 1961-1962 Yankees / Senators - pick 11
I like this team. I have the offense with 2X Mantle, Maris, and Elston Howard. I only had to make small sacrifices for some Senator players at 1B and 3B. Pitching is also strong with Terry, Ford, Donovan and Stafford as my top 4. Bullpen is not great so that is a small weakness. Otherwise, it's a strong team. Prediction - 88 wins
How it turned out: 96 wins, 4th in RS, 5th in RA
This team was on fire the whole year. I knew I had a good team, but I didn’t think they would be this good. Mantle/Maris/Mantle finished 1st, 3rd and 4th in the MVP race respectively. Dick Donovan finished with a 2.94 ERA and my other starters ERA were all between 3.83 and 4.50. I had one good setup A in Luis Arroyo with a 2.55 ERA and one bad setup A in Tom Cheney with a 5.91 ERA which is probably my only sore spot. Everyone else played up to par, including a good bench.
LG 8 1969-1970 Dodgers / Cardinals - pick 3
For having a high pick, I don't love this team. There's a lot of speed, but not particularly great basestealers in Lou Brock, Willie Davis, and Maury Wills. Then there's defense where it doesn't matter like Wes Parker at 1B (A/A+) and bad defense where it does matter like SS (C+/B-). Dick Allen and Joe Torre are the biggest hitters and they're fine, but the rest of the lineup leaves something to be desired. I chose the team for the SP, of which I have 2X Bob Gibson, Bill Singer and Claude Osteen. The bullpen is just OK. Prediction - 87 wins
How it turned out: 83 wins, 12th in RS, 3rd in RA
For a team that finished 12th in RS and 3rd in RA, I should be better than 83 wins right? Well my expected win % was .556, or 90 wins. This was a frustrating team. Lou Brock sucked with a .611 OPS and was only 21 for 31 in steal attempts while playing a crappy LF. He got benched for Curt Flood and his .710 OPS. My team was also only 54 for 91 in steal attempts, which I really should have slammed the brakes on sooner. Everyone else played up to par for the most part, but perhaps bad luck took over and that’s why we underperformed.
LG 9 1979-1980 Astros / Padres - pick 9
This is my "what was I thinking" pick. I really should have gotten a better team at #9. I think I liked JR Richard and cloning him. But even his clone only has 113 innings, so it's not a great clone. The other 3 starters are average at best. I have Dave Winfield and Gene Tenace is good too. But oh man does the rest of the lineup stink. My 2nd baseman (.243/.367/.373), SS (.230/.313/.276), 3B (.278/.317/.369). And 2B is platooning with the Dave Cash? (.227/.287/.280). This wouldn't be good in a $80M league. And my OF is full of range guys like Terry Puhl, Jerry Mumphrey and Cesar Cedeno who are not great hitters either. Prediction - 72 wins.
How it turned out: 87 wins, 15th in RS, 8th in RA
Mea culpa, mea culpa. Sorry guys, I should have had more faith. I’m glad to be off by 15 wins. I seem to forget this era was not known for its offense. Dave Winfield won the MVP – didn’t expect that. This team also ranked 20th in OPS, but 15th in RS. Why? We ran a lot. We were 3rd in SB and I knew we were fast so I set hit and run and baserunning aggressiveness to high. Dave Cash was comically bad with a .439 OPS. Both JR Richards were excellent but the other starters and relievers were mediocre. The team also had a nice win streak at the end of the season to snatch 1st place from redcped.
LG 10 1987-1988 Red Sox / Royals - pick 9
I really searched around at #9, but kept coming back to this one because of the outfield. Ellis Burks, Mike Greenwell, Dwight Evans and Tartabull at DH and Boggs at 3B. I like the offense. Add in a 2X Clemens, Gubicza, and Saberhagen and these 2 teams just work well together. Unfortunately, my bullpen is bad. Oh well. Prediction - 86 wins
How it turned out: 69 wins, 5th in RS, 21st in RA
My head scratcher and biggest miss. I’m off by 17 wins here and my expected win % is close to my actual win total so what went wrong? My hitting was solid, though we were in Fenway. My whole pitching staff was a disaster. Clemens, Clemens, Gubicza and Saberhagen had the lion’s share of the starts and had ERAs of 5.83, 5.68, 6.72 and 5.79. They pitched horrible on the road too, so it can’t be just Fenway. Also, my team was ranked 4th in fielding %, so it can’t be that. So did I enter a multiverse where all my pitchers simultaneously have bad seasons? Yes, I think so. I expected more out of them and I swear if I played this exact same team again, we would do better.
LG 11 1997-1998 Braves / Athletics - pick 4
Funny story, I primarily did my search but checking out SP and lineups. This team checks both of those boxes. 2X Maddux, Neagle, Smoltz, Rogers is a pitching staff that can rival anyone. My lineup is excellent as well with Lofton, Blauser, Chipper, McGwire, and Galarraga. I even have a couple of good platoons. Did you notice that I never looked at the RPs? I didn't and they're god awful. I could only use the A's due to the 10 Braves rule and my bullpen is primarily these guys: Tim Worrell (5.21 ERA, 1.31 whip), Billy Taylor (3.58 ERA, 1.27 whip), TJ Mathews (4.58 ERA, 1.38 whip), Buddy Groom (4.24 ERA, 1.44 whip) and Mike Fetters (3.99 ERA, 1.46 whip). Prediction - 85 wins
How it turned out: 82 wins, 19th in RS, 3rd in RA
My expected win % was .520 or 84 wins so I was close. This was a team that was in 1st place at the end of this first half and then crashed like a meteor to earth. My starting pitching was always strong, but I didn’t expect to have problems on offense. Mcgwire (-.234), Rickey Henderson(-.229) and Andruw Jones (-.193) all hit below their RL OPS. Sure, I was at the Coliseum, but still. The bullpen was unsteady as predicted but also somewhat insulated due to my playing at the Coliseum. I had such high hopes early in the season, so it was sad to watch them go 45-36 in the first half and 37-44 in the 2nd half. Considering I had the 4th pick in the draft and only finish with 82 wins and not make the playoffs would make this team a disappointment.
LG 12 2001-2002 Phillies / Cubs - pick 16
Considering the mid pick, I don't think I did too bad. Offense is solid 1-8 and #9 is Rollins with the glove. I have 2X Sosa in his prime and also now playing centerfield.....Sammy Sosa. Pitching staff is average, maybe below average with Lieber, Wolf, Padilla, Clement and Wood. Bullpen is good. Prediction - 83 wins.
How it turned out: 92 wins, 8th in RS, 13th in RA
This was a fun team to play. Randy Wolf was on fire in the first half, and still finished out with a solid 21-9 with a 4.40 ERA. Lieber and Padilla were not good with 7.02 and 6.44 ERAs respectively. The double Sosa was excellent with .949 and 1.147 OPS. He also played a decent CF. Crime Dog McGriff ended up with a 1.020 OPS while sitting vs lefties. Ended up in 1st place and beating my prediction.
LG 13 2007-2008 Brewers / Athletics - pick 10
I almost went with the 05-06 Padres/Brewers which were subsequently picked next, but I really didn't like their offense even if their pitching was stronger. I have 2X Ryan Braun who will DH and play LF. Prince Fielder will bat 4th and the rest of the guys are solid, but not great players. 3B is a bit of a problem since Braun is unplayable there but I have a platoon of good defense/no offense. Pitching is also very good from the rotation to bullpen. Prediction - 84 wins.
How it turned out: 97 wins, 21st in RS, 1st in RA
Surprise! I was off by 13 wins. We were also #1 in fielding % I didn’t think we’d be #1 in RA. And for a team that ranked 21st in RS, I’m surprised we won as many games as we did. Sabathia (3.03 ERA), Duchscherer (3.21 ERA) and Harden (3.68 ERA) were excellent. Only Haren (5.16 ERA) was a slight disappointment. My bullpen was also excellent with Ziegler (1.79 ERA), Street (1.61 ERA) and Devine (1.57 ERA, 37 for 40 in saves) were awesome. My 2 Ryan Brauns committed a total of 0 errors (one was a DH). The only downside is that njbigwig beat me by 1 game to win the division, though I’ll be in the playoffs as a wild card.
LG 14 2011-2012 Nationals / Mets - pick 24
I did the best I could with 24, but this team will still be the worst in the league. I have some good hitters in Jose Reyes, Mike Morse, David Wright and Carlos Beltran. Pitching staff is good/not great with Gio Gonzalez, 2X Jordan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg. Bullpen is average. Unfortunately, by the time it got to 24 the teams were picked through so it's going to a long season. Prediction - 75 wins.
How it turned out: 73 wins, 15th in RS, 14th in RA
According to schwarze, this is one of the most unlucky teams. My expected win % was .487, or 79 wins. We were 17-30 in 1-run games. Sure I had some underperformers like Mike Morse (-.254 OPS differential) and Jordan Zimmerman (-4.29 ERA differential) but even if they performed it was always going to be a below average team. With a 24th pick, 79 wins would have been considered a good finish. If I had average luck, I would have only squeaked into the next round.
LG 15 2019-2020 Diamondbacks / White Sox - pick 8
I think this is actually one of my best teams, so I'm surprised to get them here. When you think of these two teams from this era, there aren't any names that quickly come to mind but then you see I have 2X Lucas Giolito, Greinke, Keuchel, and Zach Gallen as my 5 man rotation which can beat anyone. Lineup is good/not great with Starling and Ketel Marte (who I thought were related but aren't), Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada. Again, guys whose name doesn't roll off your tongue but were 2020 wonders or just happened to have good seasons at this time. Prediction - 90 wins.
How it turned out: 101 wins, 7th in RS, 6th in RA
Easily my favorite team in the tourney. I had 16 teams in this tourney, and I wanted to see this team win even if my other 15 lost. Everything went right. We led the league in HR. 5 of my hitters had 100+ RBIs. All of my hitters hit at or above expectations. I had a bench and platoons that worked. The starting pitching was solid, though not spectacular. My setup and closers had ERAs of 3.74, 2.43, 2.85, 3.26 and 2.87. I was 30-18 in 1-run games. I was 13-6 in extra inning games. Was I lucky? Maybe. But that bullpen and bench likely helped in those types of games.
3/18/2023 6:26 AM (edited)