Posted by schwarze on 6/10/2023 4:34:00 PM (view original):
League 3, Pick #6 (2nd pick in the Tigers, 2nd pick in AL)
Division: AL East
Tigers: 1909, 1945, 1987, 1967, 1930, 2005

This was one of my early mistakes. Of the first five picks in league 3, four were Cardinals (1904, 1943, 1985, 1948). The only Tigers pick was 2001. The obvious choice here was the 1944 Cardinals, which I knew, since I had them in round 3. I was too worried about barracuda3. He already had his Cardinals team (1943) and had I selected the Cardinals here, I would avoid his division and be in the NL Central. But my 2nd pick in this league was at #12 and barracuda was at #11. So I figured I could be the second Tigers team and surely two other people between pick 7 and pick 11 would grab the Tigers, thus forcing barracuda into the AL Central. But that's not how it worked out. Three more Cardinals teams got picked (1914, 1944, 1968) forcing barracuda3 into my Tigers division. Crap.

The Tigers aren't known for having great pitching throughout their history. And when I think of their offensive players, I think of sluggers like Greenberg, Cabrera, Kaline. So this led me to draft 1909 Tigers with my first round pick. I get three SPs with 937 combined innings: George Mullin (1.11), Ed Summers (1.05) and Ed Willett (1.08). Although their whips aren't great, they don't allow HRs. This allows me more flexibility with the rest of my picks, knowing I've pretty much locked up my starting rotation. Oh, and I get a solid 1B, Sam Crawford (.314/.366/.452 A++) and a very good Ty Cobb who can't field (.377/.431/.517, D+/D+).

One of my favorite Tigers pitchers to use in the sim is Hal Newhouser (1.12). Imagine my surprise when one of his three good seasons was still available. So I immediately jumped on 1945 Tigers when it got back to me. This season also gives me another favorite of mine, Roy Cullenbine (.272, .402, .444). Hank Greenberg (.311, .404, 544) has a nice partial season and will fill in when needed.

With my other pick near the turn, it was tempting to grab some of those 1920's-30's hitting studs, but there are enough seasons left that I can wait. So instead I go with 1987 Tigers. This pick gives me Alan Trammell's best season (.343/.402/.551) and a couple of relievers. Doyle Alexander (1.01) will probably be my closer while Mike Henneman (1.20 whip) will each up some long innings. Chet Lemon will come in for defense for Cobb.

Going into the 4-5 turn, I have enough innings (drafting four 300+ IP pitchers help), although I could use a few more bodies. I need a starting catcher and another OF. 1967 Tigers was the perfect fit. I get Bill Freehan's best season (.282/.389/.447) and a really good Al Kaline (.308/.411/.541). Of course, just like all Kaline's seasons, he's a bit short on PA, which is where Greenberg gets to play (A+/D- in OF). I also get two very useful RPs, Bill Monboquette (1.03) and John Hiller (1.02).

I mentioned "going into the 4-5 turn", this team was really picking 2nd in the Tigers draft, but the other team had already filled their 1923-42 season, so I really made the 1967 pick and this pick at the same time. The other needs were filled with the selection of the 1930 Tigers. I got my stud Charlie Gehringer season (.330/.404/.534) and a surprisingly good Marty McManus (.320/.396/.475, A-B) to play 3B. I really don't need much of anything else, with one pick to go.

Like others I assume, when you have most of your roster covered, the last pick might be the best RP available or maybe a part time player who's really good. This is the case here and it's why I grabbed 2005 Tigers. I added Kyle Farnsworth (1.01) to a very strong pitching staff. Placido Polanco (.338/.386/461) fills some needed PA at 3B and can be a defensive replacement (A+/B+) at 2B. Even a partial season of Carlos Guillen (.320/.368/.434) could see some action at SS.

Outlook: Although I still think that I should have taken the '44 Cardinals with this pick, this Tigers team turned out better than expected. Although I don't have Justin Verlander on the roster, the pitching should be ranked fairly high as we should lead the league in fewest HRs allowed, even while playing in Tiger Stadium. The defense is decent enough. The offense is built around high average, high on-base guys, although I was hoping to draft a lot more than 137 HRs. I know just about every Tigers team will have some combination of Cobb, Crawford, Gehringer, Greenberg, Cabrera, Trammell, Kaline, so my offense will certainly end up around average-to-below average. With above-average pitching, it feels like a .500 team.

Current Record: 93-52, .641
Playoff Race: 1st in AL East (15 games up)
Exp Win%: .649 (1st in AL)
Offense: 1st in AL
Pitching: 2nd in AL
Field%: 5th in AL
Range: 49+, 20- (3rd in AL)

Comment:
I was right about the 1944 Cardinals being the best Cardinals pick at the time I selected Detroit (redcped's team is 79-66). Who knows for sure if 1909 Detroit would have made it to me at pick #12. The pitching is as good as I expected, ranking 2nd overall (behind a team who's playing their home games in Comerica - we're in Tiger Stadium). The team is first in fewest HRs allowed. Hell, my RPs have allowed almost as many as my SPs in way fewer innings. Although my 1909 pitchers have been solid (Mullin, Willett, Summers are a combined 50-26, with ERAs in the low 4's), my ace has been '45 Newhouser (24-9, 4.14). Doyle Alexander has done a very nice job closing (31/33 in saves, 2.87 ERA). I thought Farnsworth would be my closer, but his 5.64 ERA and 3/7 in saves forced me to move him to mopup.

What I didn't expect from this team was to be ranked #1 in offense. Sure, I picked a + park for HRs and have a little bit of power (real life HRs: Trammell 28, Kaline 25, Freehan 20, Lemon 20, Cullenbine 19), but in a million years, I didn't expect to be near the league lead in HRs hit (we're 2nd behind a team with 276 real life HRs). Maybe it's the lack of strikeouts, (ranked 1st in fewest strikeouts from my batters). '09 Cobb (.379, .434, .607, 30 HRs, 152 RBIs) is the favorite to win AL MVP. I know there's normalization going on, but he hit 10 HRs in real life and has 30 for me! '09 Sam Crawford has been excellent as well (.304, .356, .449, 119 RBIs, 30+ plays at 1B). '67 Al Kaline (.304, .416, .507) has also exceeded expectations.

Grade: A+
Clearly, I was wrong about the 1909 Tigers pick being a mistake. This team is currently in the top 4 for overall tournament record. The 1909 pitchers aren't allowing HRs and my 1909 batters are outperforming their expectations. This team's success has me rethinking some of my drafting strategies.

Posted by schwarze on 6/10/2023 6:07:00 PM (view original):
League 4, Pick #5 (2nd pick in the Cubs draft)
Division: NL East
Cubs: 1906, 1923, 2014, 1990, 1944, 1966

Three of the first four picks in league 4 were White Sox, so there was no way I was going to be team #4 in the AL East, so Cubs it is. The only Cubs team taken so far is 1907 (kstober), so I was thrilled to grab 1906, especially since my 1906 Cubs just won the Round 3 World Series. There are more than 5 usable players from this team, including Mordecai Brown (1.04), Ed Reulbach (1.01), Jack Pfeister (0.94), Jack Taylor (1.05), Orval Overall (1.16), Harry Steinfeldt (.327/.395/.430) and Frank Chance (.419 obp). I need to cut two of them. We'll figure it out later.

In retrospect, I really don't like my second round pick, and can't remember why I chose 1923 Cubs. Well, I know I had Pete Alexander (1.11 whip, 321 ips) ranked pretty high among available SPs. But I already have potentially over 1000 innings of '06 Cubs pitchers, so I really didn't need Alexander. I was able to add OF Jigger Statz (.319/.375/.440 A++), C Bob O'Farrell (.319/.408/.471) and part-time SS Charlie Hollocher (.342/..410/.423). I guess it's not a terrible pick, as it denies other teams from getting a good SP, but the three offensive pieces aren't super strong.

With my third round pick, I'm loaded with pitching and need more offense so of course, I added *more pitching*. I added 2014 Cubs, in order to get pitchers Jake Arrieta (0.99), Hector Rondon (1.06), Pedro Strop (1.07) plus my starting 1B, Anthony Rizzo (.286/.386/.527). What am I doing? Where is my offense? I have all the innings I need, I need to focus on getting some hitting.

I was all set to take '72 Cubs here, but there were only two good Ryne Sandberg seasons left and redcped grabbed one of the right before my pick. And kstober still had 1983-2002 available, so instead of getting the stud '72 Billy Williams, I grabbed 1990 Cubs specifically for Sandberg (.306/.354/.559) plus some backup ABs at catcher with Damon Berryhill (.509 slugging). The other two players are scrubs. Of course, kstober takes 1972 Cubs. Damn it! Bad decision by me, but maybe kstober takes 1990 and I'm not sure who I would've used at 2B then. Of course, had I spent 30 seconds reviewing his previous picks, I would have realized he already had 1935 Billy Herman to play 2B, Oh well... that's the downside of trying to draft 15 teams, simultaneously.

My next pick of the 1944 Cubs is actually a better alternative to 1972. Historically, the best Cubs hitters have been predominantly right-handed and I wanted some lefty batters. 1944 provides me two lefty outfielders, Bill Nicholson (.287/.391/.545) and Phil Cavaretta (.321/.390/.451) although their defense isn't very good. More importantly, I filled the platoon hole at SS with some dude named Roy Hughes (.287) who's primary position is 3B but is rated A-/B+ at SS, so it worked out ok.

With my last pick, I really don't need anything. My pitching is set, my offense is set, so who do I take. I have plenty of cap room, so I feel like a kid in the candy store... Forget about needs, what do I want? I decide to drop '06 Harry Steinfeldt (I already dropped '06 Frank Chance) and go with all five 1906 pitchers listed above. Instead, from the 1966 Cubs, I will be starting a stud Ron Santo season (.312/.412/.538, A+ range). I added a defensive replacement in the OF with Adolfo Phillips, some completely unneeded innings with Fergie Jenkins (1.09) and a third catcher (Randy Hundley, A+ arm).

Outlook: I fear this is going to be one of those teams that will lose a lot of close games, because I don't score enough runs. Lots of 3-2 and 4-3 losses. I have 1800+ innings of 1.03 whip (or 1550 ips of 1.01 whip if I exclude my 2 worst pitchers), so maybe the other Cubs teams will have worse pitching than me. But my offense might be a bit too HR heavy with four starters having over 30 HRs, playing in a division with all deadball pitchers. At least I can start 4 left-handed batters. It will be interesting to see how barracuda3 (his first pick was 1930) does in my division that includes Cubs pitchers from 1906, 1907 and 1909. I think juice's division alignment rule was both genius and evil. It really should help the teams drafting at the end.

Current Record: 72-73, .497
Playoff Race: 3rd in NL East (9 games out of wildcard)
Exp Win%: .454 (11th in NL)
Offense: 9th in NL
Pitching: 9th in NL
Field%: 7th in NL
Range: 76+, 22- (4th in NL)

Comment:
This team has been my worst team all season. Not by record, but by Exp Win%. They were playing above their heads and were 12 games over .500 at one point, but have been in a brutal slide over the past few weeks. The 1906 pitching top three (Brown, Pfeister, Reulbach) has been decent (46-40) but the rest of the staff has been terrible. '06 Overall and '06 Taylor have ERAs over 5. My 2nd round pick of 1923, specifically Pete Alexander (5-13, 5.72) is so bad, he was relegated to mop-up duty. My good modern day relievers (Strop, Rondon) suck as usual.

Offensively, the team is 6th in the NL in OPS but 9th in runs scored. I guess we must leave a lot of guys on base. Sandberg (.303, .340, .502, 30 HRs, 102 RBIs) has been about as good as I could hope for, considering all the deadball pitching he faces in this league. Bill Nicholson (32 HRs, .857 OPS) has also done what I expected from him. Cavaretta, Santo, Rizzo & O'Farrell have been ok. But I have big zeros at CF (Statz, .306 obp) and SS (Hughes, .263 obp). So including the pitcher, that's like 3 automatic outs every time through the lineup.

Grade: C-
All season, I have been monitoring all 15 of my teams' success, comparing actual winning% to expected winning%. After an early season 29-0 loss, this team was the one team of mine that was on the "lucky" side of the equation. I kept thinking that regression was coming... and it finally came. And it came hard. We were sitting at 57-45 with an Exp Win% of right around .500. Went 6-7 to get to 63-52. Since then, 9-21. Currently, this team would not be advancing to Round 5.

Posted by schwarze on 6/11/2023 10:10:00 AM (view original):
League 5, Pick #4 (2nd pick in the Pirates draft)
Division: NL East
Pirates: 1903, 1928, 1987, 2012, 1970, 1944

What was I thinking? I really screwed up in this Pirates/Indians league. barracuda has 1st choice and selects 1909 Pirates. Then two Indians teams gets selected (1917, 1995) and neither team has Addie Joss. barracuda's next pick is at #15. My two picks in this league are at #4 and #9. Seems pretty obvious that I should take an Indians team at #4 and a Pirates team at #9 and then I can avoid barracuda in both leagues. For reasons that I cannot fathom, I select a Pirates team here. And guess what, my Indians team at pick #9 ends up in the same A.L. division as barracuda's Indians team. I'm an idiot.

Anyway, I chose the 1903 Pirates due to the success I had with that team in round 3. Same Leever (1.11) and Deacon Phillipe (1.03) provide 665 innings of solid deadball pitching which normalize well since 1903 is a bit more offensive than 1905-1910. Just as important, I get two very good hitters, with Honus Wagner (.355/.414//.518 A+ range) and Fred Clarke (.351/.414/.532). Ginger Beaumont didn't make the final cut.

Not a shock, but the next two Pirates teams off the board are 1908 and 1905, so the NL East will be the "Honus Wagner Deadball Division". Again, great decision by me to go Pirates instead of Indians. Excluding the deadball years, the Pirates don't have a history of great starting pitching, so anytime I can grab a solid SP while improving my offense, it's a no-brainer pick. So when my SP search for years 1923-2022 showed Burleigh Grimes (1.17, 353 ips) from the 1928 Pirates among the top available options, I researched a bit more and found I could also add starting 3B Pie Traynor (.337/.370/.462) and 1B/OF Paul "Big Posion" Waner (.370/.446/.547). I added 1B George Grantham (.323/.408/.486) at the last minute, since I had the cap space.

So with just two picks, I have over 1000 innings of starting pitching and half my starting lineup. During my last search, another SP popped up that I really liked, and I decided to add 1987 Pirates because I wanted Rick Reuschel (1.10). I have no problem using a 200+ inning SP as a reliever. Heck, give me a SP with a 1.10 whip who can pitch 3-4 innings of relief over a modern day closer with a 0.88 whip who gets shelled when he hits pitch #15. I also get a short-inning Jeff D. Robinson (0.98) plus platoon catcher Mike LaValliere (.300/.377/.365) and backup 2B Jose Lind (.322/.358/.434, A+/A+). Andy Van Slyke (1B/OF) was on the original roster, but I bumped him off due to an unexpected addition later in the draft.

I made a tactical error on my next pick. I was thinking of taking 1945 for the bullpen help (Boom-Boom Beck, 1.10 whip) and the other half of the catcher platoon (Bill Salked, .967 ops), but I also really wanted 2012 Pirates' Andrew McCutcheon (.327/.400/.553, A/A-). barracuda had both groups available. I went with McCutcheon and barracuda3 grabbed 1945 so quickly, it was like "whew, I thought schwarze was for sure going to take them - I better take them before he changes his mind". I was able to add a couple of mediocre RPs in Tony Watson (1.13) and Jason Grilli (1.14) - both who are a bit HR prone. I also have my starting 2B, Neil Walker (.280/.342/.426) who is the weakest starting offensive player on the team. But he's a switch-hitter and can field (B/A).

After losing 1945, I start searching for teams with decent RPs and also a good catcher. I find the perfect team with the 1970 Pirates. Mudcat Grant (1.06) turns out to be my team's best RP and John Lamb (1.11) is another warm body to use. But more importantly, I get my catcher, Manny Sanguillen (.325/.344/.444 A+ arm). Oh, and as an unexpected bonus, I get this random outfielder with a .352/.407/.556 slash line, some guy named Roberto Clemente. See you later Andy Van Slyke. With extra cap room, I later add 1B, Bob Robertson (.287/.367/.564). I got more 1B and OF than I know what to do with.

I really don't need anything with my last pick. Extra RPs wouldn't hurt, but that position has been picked clean. I end up selecting 1944 Pirates, and am able to upgrade(?) my 3B from Traynor to Bob Elliott (.297/.383/.465). I add another decent OF option, with switch-hitter Jim Russell (.312/.399/.460) and get s a couple of $1 million dollar pinch hitters.

Outlook: Although I have 1550 pretty good innings, I am only carrying 9 pitchers, so I need to make sure I check the boxes to let my SPs pitch in relief when necessary. I don't have any dominant pitchers so it won't surprise me if I end up with a long losing streak at some point. I have a high-average hitting team that doesn't walk (nobody with 80+ walks) and doesn't hit for power (less than 100 HRs in starting eight). We should be a good defensive team which will help the pitching. We are playing our home games in Exposition Park III (-2 for HRs), so hopefully we can win enough low-scoring games to play around .500 ball.

Current Record: 79-66, .545
Playoff Race: 1st in NL East (5 games in front)
Exp Win%: .572 (11th in NL)
Offense: 2nd in NL
Pitching: 4th in NL
Field%: 7th in NL
Range: 90+, 17- (3rd in NL)

Comment:
Not surprisingly, my offense is ranked 1st in batting average and bottom 5 in walks drawn and bottom 5 in HRs hit. Yet, somehow, we are 2nd in the NL in runs scored. We are top 5 in doubles and triples hit, but my guess is that unlike my Cubs team, this team must be leaving fewer guys on base than expected. My 2012 selection turns out to not be a tactical error, since Andrew McCutcheon (.322, .376, .455, 102 RBIs, 12+ plays in CF) is 2nd in the MVP race. But Bob Elliott (.395, .369, .471, 19 triples) actually leads my team in OPS (.840). Roberto Clemente (.339, .379, .455) is also good. In fact, there really aren't many weaknesses in the offense (P.Waner, H.Wagner, F.Clarke, Sanguillen are all hitting .290+). I guess it helps run production when you don't have three automatic outs at the bottom of the lineup.

On the pitching side, '03 Deacon Phillippe (22-11, 3.50) is the Cy Young favorite. '03 Leever (16-12) has been respectable, and '28 Burleigh Grimes (19-18, 4.66 ERA) did exactly what I was hoping he'd do... eat up innings and not kill me. He also hit .295 in 122 ABs. Ironically, the mediocre bullpen performed better than they should have. I thought Reuschel would do well, but he actually was the worst performer (5.40 ERA). Nick Strincevich was my worst real life RP and he overachieved (3.72 ERA). The only pitcher on my staff with a real-life whip below 1.00 was Jeff Robinson and he sucked too (5.24 ERA). Watson (3.50), Lamb (2.70) and Grant (3.80) were all good. I guess I will never figure out this game.

Grade: A-
Unlike most of my teams, this team really didn't have any long winning or losing streaks. The team has had average 1-run luck (21-21) and somehow has won 9 more games than barracuda3's Pirates team which had the 2nd overall pick (1909) in the tournament. The defense is good, the offense is balanced and the pitching (especially relief) has surprised. This team is battling it out with my Red Sox team and '21 Giants team as my third best team in this round. The record is good, but not great. Will probably only land me a 10th round pick in round 5.

Posted by schwarze on 6/11/2023 11:10:00 AM (view original):
League 6, Pick #6 (5th pick in the Red Sox draft)
Division: AL Central
Red So>2018, 1908, 1991, 1941, 1958, 1964

Of the top five picks in league 6, four were Red Sox (1914, 2002, 1999, 1912) and one Braves (barracuda's 1916). Hmmm.... so I can be the first team in the AL Central or join barracuda in the NL East? Tough call. I was 100% going with the Red Sox here. Now, with most of my other early picks, I have gone with a deadball pitching staff (1906 Cubs, 1903 Pirates, 1905 Giants, 1909 Tigers). Since there are a number of reasonably decent Cy Young seasons available, I figured I would wait on that. Similarly, there are a number of great Ted Williams seasons to choose from. I considered 2000 Red Sox, but there are a ton of great SP options in the 83-02 range, so that's when I landed on the 2018 Red Sox. I get studs Mookie Betts (.346/.438/..640) and J.D.Martinez (.330/.402/.629). Of course, I picked this team to also get Chris Sale's best year (0.86) plust a couple of solid RPs, Craig Kimbrel (0.99) and Ryan Brasier (0.77). It's a good start, but I'm not used to having so few IPs after one pick.

When it got back to me in round 2, five teams have selected their deadball season including two of the four teams in front of me. I had my choice narrowed down between the 1907 and 1908 seasons. 1907 had more quantity while 1908 had better quality. I made the decision to go with quality and selected 1908 Red Sox and got Cy Young (0.89), Elmer Steele (0.83) and Frank Arellanes (0.99). No hitters worth taking so my fourth player is a scrub. In retrospect, I should have taken 1907. You will see why later.

I made a huge error with this next pick. 1944 was the obvious choice: They have three really good players. SP Tex Hughson, OF Bob Johnson and 2B Bobby Doerr. I already had 2 right-handed OFs (Betts/Martinez), and wanted to save a spot for lefty Ted Williams. I also wanted either '90 or '91 Roger Clemens (1.05). But of the two, only the 1991 Red Sox also gives me a good Wade Boggs (.332/.421/.460), so that's where I went. I also get a HR-prone Jeff Gray (0.79) plus a nice backup OF Phil Plantier (.331/.420/.615). Imagine how ticked I was when 1990 Red Sox went in round 5. WTF?

By my next turn, all the good Ted Williams seasons were selected except for his expensive season. So, I did some back-of-the-envelope math and decided I could draft the 1941 Red Sox. Besides Ted Williams (.406/.551/.735), I also get SS Joe Cronin (.311/.406/.508) and 1B Jimmie Foxx (.300/.412/.505). I didn't know it at the time, but I also needed the part time catcher, Johnny Peacock (.284 avg).

With my next pick, 1978 would be the perfect fit, but footballmm11 sniped them from me one pick away. My team is turning into a clusterf*ck. I only have about 640 innings of SP and no catcher and no second baseman yet. Just two picks left. And that $19 million Ted Williams salary is messing with my salary cap. I should have drafted 1907 instead of 1908, which would have resolved my SP innings issue. With this pick, I take 1958 Red Sox, which gives me two RPs, Bob Porterfield (1.09) and Leo Kiely (1.17), plus a good Pete Runnels (.332/.416/.438). I end up cutting J.D. Martinez and adding OF Jackie Jenson (.286/.396.535). Now, I really wish I had taken 1944 instead of 1991. I would've had Bob Johnson and Bobby Doerr over Jenson and Runnels, plus had a really good SP, Tex Hugson, and still could have drafted 1990 Clemens in round 5.

With my last pick, there just isn't any good SP innings left, so I take 1964 Red Sox in order to get Dick Radatz (157 innings, 1.03 whip). I get my catcher platoon partner, the legendary Bob Tillman (.278 avg). Carl Yastrzemski (.289/.374.451) gives me additional PA at 3B and OF, which I needed. And RP Jay Ritchie is another body to use up meaningless innings.

Outlook: I hate this team. Just about every decision I made when deciding between two choices was the wrong decision. Managing the SP innings is going to be a headache all season long. The defense is below average. Ted Williams may win the MVP, but this team won't even sniff .500. I have 15 teams in round 4. I expect at least 5 won't advance to round 5... this is one of those 5.

Current Record: 79-66, .545
Playoff Race: 3rd in AL Central (2 games out of wildcard)
Exp Win%: .589 (1st in AL)
Offense: 6th in AL
Pitching: 2nd in AL
Field%: 8th in AL
Range: 50+, 33- (6th in AL)

Comment:
Although this team is ranked 2nd in ERA, it's not due to the bullpen. The three main SPs (Cy Young, Roger Clemens, Chris Sale) have thrown 712 innings and have a cumulative ERA of 3.40. The bullpen has thrown 598 innings with a cumulative ERA of 4.84. Oh, and the bullpen has blown 20 of 49 save opportunities. Needless to say, the team is not good in close games (17-20 in 1-run games). '08 Young has been very good (22-9, 3.49). Roger Clemens is only 12-14 (bullpen has blown many of his leads) but is 6th in the league in ERA (3.22). Chris Sale only averages 4 innings per start (since I shorted my self on SPs), so is only 1-8, but has a 3.54 ERA. Just looking at American League qualified pitchers, my three SPs are ranked 3-4-5 in ERA ('00 Pedro and '14 Leonard are 1-2). Long RP Elmer Steele (5.13 ERA) has never done well for me and of course, my best modern day RP (0.77 real life whip) suck balls - Ryan Brasier has a 6.43 ERA and has only been able to throw 28 innings in 43 games. Dick Radatz has made 89 appearances and has good days and bad days (13-8, 0-for-4 in saves with a 4.39 ERA).

Hitting wise, '41 Ted Williams leads both leagues in AVG, OBP & SLG and is 3 short of the RBI lead (.370, .504, .595, 124 RBIs), yet somehow he is just 3rd in the AL MVP race. How is that possible? What else does the man have to do? Three fourths of the infield has been solid as well, with Runnels (.317, .397, .431), Boggs (.299, .382, .387) and Cronin (.304, .380, .456) all reaching a reasonable hitting level. But Jimmie Foxx has been a bum (.253, .344, .355!). I've actually played Mookie Betts (.304, .380, 440) out of position at 1B a few games, just to sit Foxx. And my main catcher (Tillman) has been a big zero too (.207, .290, .279).

Grade: B+
This team has certainly won more games than expected. I hate the fact that I have to use RPs as frequently as I do, because I didn't draft enough usable SPs. My top pick of 2018 was made so I could use Sale as my main/best RP. Instead he doesn't even get to throw 5 innings as one of my three SP. I've started Elmer Steele a couple of times when my SPs were getting fatigued, but as I mentioned earlier, he's been pretty atrocious (20 earned runs allowed in 10.1 innings over 4 starts). Regardless, even though this team probably won't make the playoffs, the team has of my better W-L records.

So after my Cubs writeup, I started thinking about Joe Peta and the book he wrote, called "Trading Bases", which analyzes baseball specifically for betting. He came up with a term called "Cluster Luck". Cluster Luck measures the batting and pitching raw statistics and compares it to the actual runs scored and allowed.

The easiest way to explain cluster luck is with an example. Team A plays Team B.
Team A: Gets 4 hits in the game, single, single, single, home run, in that order, all in the same inning.
Team B: Gets the same 4 hits in the game, spread out over 4 different innings.
So these two teams have the exact same hitting stats and exact same pitching stats, yet Team A scored 4 times as many runs as Team B.
This is Cluster Luck.

So when analyzing a team's W-L record, when it comes to runs scored and runs allowed, there are really a couple different things to look at. The "Expected Winning%" measure just looks at actual runs scored and runs allowed. But when factoring in Cluster Luck, you can also look at Expected Runs scored and Expected Runs allowed, with these numbers calculated based on the actual hitting and pitching stats for team. Then you can use those two numbers to calculate the True Expected Winning%.

Anyway, while I was reviewing my Cubs team, I noted that the team's hitting stats seemed ok, yet I was ranked very low in runs scored. So for this league, I ran some regression analysis to determine what each team's expected runs scored and runs allowed should be, then compared the expected run differential to the actual run differential.

It turns out, my hunch was right (although more of the difference was due to pitching). My Cubs expected run differential is +4 while the actual run differential is -71 (currently). This 75 difference was the third highest for teams with the worst "cluster luck". Here is the full chart for each team in this league.
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Team	Exp R	Exp RA	Exp Diff	.	Act R	Act RA	Act Diff	.	Exp/Act Diff
Chicago White Sox 05-36-53-68-98-06	598	590	9		535	618	-83		92
Cubs 10-37-45-75-84-05	715	681	34		708	760	-52		86
Cubs 06-23-44-66-90-14	687	683	4		660	731	-71		75
Chicago Cubs 07-35-58-72-00-22	667	581	87		634	600	34		53
White Sox: 1904/1925/1949/1980/2000/2005	543	681	-138		526	706	-180		42
Cubs 1905-28-60-71-99-2016	675	688	-12		628	669	-41		29
.bear disaster	804	858	-54		793	875	-82		28
White Sox 15-35-61-63-96-21	711	689	22		695	688	7		15
White Sox 06-24-59-74-91-20	662	599	63		668	616	52		11
1957 WHITE SOX	617	551	66		600	531	69		-3
Cubs 04-39-43-67-85-21	670	657	13		677	660	17		-4
1916 2019 1956 1939 1965 1993 White Sox	589	582	7		595	580	15		-8
Bigwigs White Sox 13/23/43/67/94/03	568	642	-74		558	621	-63		-11
WhiteSoxLOL172646729010	644	595	49		654	593	61		-12
08/26/59/65/01/17 Cubs	746	644	101		733	617	116		-15
Luke, I am your Foxer	596	587	9		643	618	25		-16
1930 1970 1918 1991 1948 2003 Cubs	751	875	-125		774	878	-104		-21
Cubs 19-34-57-63-98-18	677	766	-89		687	742	-55		-34
CHW 20/37/55/66/83/16	641	719	-78		657	700	-43		-35
White Sox 19-27-58-64-01-14	586	563	23		592	533	59		-36
Cubs 03-40-52-77-97-15	604	594	10		647	601	46		-36
10/40/51/81/92/17 White Sox	661	618	44		674	590	84		-40
Cubs 09-27-56-64-89-19	719	610	108		765	589	176		-68
Cubs 20, 38, 50, 79, 92, 20	648	727	-79		677	664	13		-92

I didn't include the calculation for the True Expect winning%, but you could probably make an educated guess. My Cubs team should be around .500 while the "Cubs 20, 38, 50, 79, 92, 20" is really a below. 500 team that has been very fortunate with Cluster Luck.

It's easy to see this. That team is 8th in runs scored but only 13th in OPS. On the pitching side, that team is 15th in fewest runs allowed but is 21st in pitching OPS.

What's interesting is that this measure does NOT factor in 1-run game luck. So, that team I just referenced that is playing above it's head on run scored and runs allowed has also been very unlucky in 1-run games (18-32), so in this case, the cluster luck and the 1-run game luck have somewhat cancelled each other out. And that team is only 67-81, which probably isn't far from what their expected runs and expected runs allowed would show.

My Cubs team is only a few games below .500 despite the poor actual run differential. This is due to positive 1-run game luck.

As you can see, calculating these measures midway through the season can often help you find undervalued and overvalued teams which could lead to possible betting opportunities.

Also, it should be noted that I simply used OBP and SLG in the regression formula which determines expected runs scored and runs allowed. The correlation coefficients are quite high (+0.84 for hitting, +0.89 for pitching) so I felt pretty good about these calculations.

I tried including the effects of stolen bases for offense and the effect was insignificant.

One thing this analysis does NOT factor in is the underperformance of players' sim stats vs real life stats. That would require an entire different level of analysis, since I would have to factor in every player's real life stats, apply usage percentages to each player, then somehow factor in how the home ballpark effects the numbers.

Just realized I have teams 1 and 4 on the Cluster Luck list. For the most part round 4 has not been a lot of fun.

I wrote this up shortly after the draft, but never finished it so didn't post then. Posting her for posterity and will update after game 162.

=======================================

I have 11 teams this round, so have 4 leagues with both franchises. Somehow I ended up with a Top 14 pick and--having absolutely no idea where to start--just picked my favorite team, the Dodgers. When it came time actually pick the season, schwarze sent me a sitemail assuming "you must have had a team in mind". Au contraire, Mr. Schwarze! After some quick scrambling, I figured the 2015 Dodgers with the monster Kershaw and Greinke seasons, plus a very nice Jansen couldn't be the worst choice.

At this point, I finally found some time to get some spreadsheets and research together, though mostly just built off of the last phase of this tournament. I initially thought that the salary cap would be an issue, but found out as we went on that that was actually not the case. A little more research upfront would have been useful to maybe figure that out, but I didn't have the time. I also normally calibrate positions, franchises, etc. to get a sense of what quality will be needed or useful but again did not do that! I likely overvalued teams with lots of volume at what ended up being mediocre quality. Those two issues combined to steer me away from some of the big-salary studs, which was a mistake.

For my first picks, I mostly looked for big-inning deadballers (or two!) where I could lock in some quality SP innings, keep balls in the park, and allow myself to focus on relief pitching studs (my favorite) later in the draft where I'd expect them to be more plentiful. I think this strategy was largely reasonable.

Where I found myself in more trouble was on the hitting side. As I mentioned, avoiding some of the Ruth, Hornsby, Bonds-type studs will not be helpful. I also failed to look ahead and plan for scarcity issues, so found myself scrambling later in drafts. For the most part I was able to recover okay, but definitely have some issues with Catcher (had to sacrifice a top reliever to grab a partial Yasmani Grandal) and infield spots here and there. Normally, I have offense-heavy teams but my draft strategy, or lack thereof, lended towards better pitching team and offenses that, while decently balanced, lack top-end quality for the most part.

Finally, I'll point out that all of my teams except one used the 2003-22 timeframe for their 5-player team. This is mostly because of relievers. I'm guessing most others did this as well?

I don't remember all my reasoning so I'll just point out a couple things on each team that I found interesting:

Giants 03-24-61-70-98-21
Probably the best example of my drafting strategy. I was able to get 1903 with 11th overall pick, giving me 933 innings between Mathewson and McGinnity. This allowed me to load up on relievers (3 from 2021 and 2 from 1998, plus a very nice 1963 Stu Miller). However, I avoided the monster Bonds years, ending up with his solid but unspectacular $7.7m 1998 season. Late in the draft, I panicked thinking I backed myself into a corner and would have to play Roger Bresnahan's D/D- fielding at 3B, but I luckily realized Frankie Frisch, despite showing up as a 2B on my spreadsheet, had multiple years as a very good 3B. My last error (of many) I had to fix with this team was realizing after I entered them that I had a SS (Brandon Crawford) and 2B (Kent) with less than 600 PA and no backups. So I had to go back and re-work the jigsaw puzzle to make the pieces fit. I will say, I enjoyed the fine-tuning at the end of each team to get the years, positions, and sometimes salary to all fit.

My offense ends up with Frisch as the highest-salaried player at just $8.04m but I have 9 players making between $5-8m. My pitching should be quite good as should the defense, so hopefully our run prevention will carry us. I stuck the team in Polo Grounds (V) to help eliminate some of the big Bonds HR years and hopefully rack up some doubles up and down the lineup.

Yankees 11-34-59-80-99-22
Just like Bonds, I don't have a stud Ruth. In fact, my Ruth (1934) won't even start for me, though he's a very nice bench bat behind Mantle, Bernie Williams, and Judge. While I do have a 49 HR Gehrig, most of my power is tied up in the right-handed Judge's 62 HR season, so I put the team in Hilltop Park from the Highlanders days with 0/-3 HR ratings to hopefully keep some Ruth mashes inside the fence.

I don't remember what order I picked these teams in but I have two big 300-inning pitchers in 34 Gomez and 1911 Russ Ford. I was able to load up on a bunch of good relievers from 99 Rivera to 59 Shantz to 80 Gossage plus a trio of 2022 arms. The Yankees do have so much offensive firepower I was still able to end up with 2022 Judge and 34 Gehrig, though the rest of my lineup is more good than great.

I did appreciate how my pick of DJ LeMahieu, with ratings at 1B, 2B, and 3B allowed some flexiblity later in the draft which allowed me to ultimately end up with 1980 Willie Randolph at 2B, shifting DJ to 3B. All these Yankee teams likely have tons of firepower--more than mine--though we'll see how they do against some of the deadballers (although the Yankees don't have a ton of great arms from that era).

Dodgers 19-23-51-68-00-15
My aforementioned 2015 pick gave me 500 elite innings between Kershaw, Greinke, and Jansen. My fourth from this team ended up being a short-PA Seager and this was the only franchise I didn't utilize my 5 players from the latest team. Instead, that came from my 2000 Dodgers--though outside of a stud Kevin Brown and big-hitting Sheffield, the other 3 are just bench and platoon bats. I picked 1951 relatively early (I think?) and that exemplified my overvaluing of volume. Jackie Robinson is great, as is Campy, but Gil Hodges and Duke Snider are very mediocre options in this league. That left me needing some major firepower late and there just isn't much. I ended up with 1919 and 1923 which gave me Hy Myers, Jack Fournier, and a partial Zack Wheat. I was also forced into the 1923 pick to get Jimmy Johnston at SS, lest I be forced into a mediocre Pee Wee Reese.

I don't like my hitting, but hopefully there's enough balance and depth to get by while the pitching does the trick. I had a few similar options at the end, but with the cap becoming an issue I had to choose, ultimately going with 1919 Leon Cadore (who I've never heard of) and 1968 Sutton to go with the 3 modern era studs atop the rotation. I really have no idea what to make of this team, but fear they could be my worst despite being my only Top 14 pick.

Athletics 11-32-46-80-00-18
Going back through these and trying to decipher the order I picked these teams in is both fun and frustrating, given I often can't see a direct line of logic, haha.

I must have picked 1911 first, which did give me 400 starter inning plus a really good Eddie Collins at 2B. 1932 came next maybe? 300+ innings from Lefty Grove, a stud Jimmie Foxx, and a good Cochrane behind the dish. Gonna guess 2000 was next to get Giambi and Tejada. I've played Giambi and others like him in the OF with A/A- fielding at 1B, or I can move Foxx to 3B with his D/D defense and just try to outmash other teams. Gonna say 1980 next for Mike Norris plus a Rickey to leadoff. Probably 1946 and 2018 at the end as they mostly provided platoons, relievers, and fill-ins.

Let's see how I did...nope it was 1932 first, then 1911. I was right on 2000 and then 1980, with 2018 and then 1946 to finish up. Anyway, outside of Foxx and Giambi, not much pop in the offense. No Eck in the pen, though I did get 18 Trienen. Hopefully my hodgepodge of 1500 innings at 3.02 ERC# or better is enough to keep us in games.

Tigers 18-24-44-73-84-07
I chose 1944 to start to get 700 innings combined from Dizzy Trout and Hal Newhouse. I also got a strong partial season from Dick Wakefield and a Pinky Higgins at 3B. I didn't end up with Verlander, Cabrera or any of the recent Tigers stars, but I did get two of the best reliever seasons in their history--1984 Willie Hernandez and 1973 John Hiller. That Hiller pick was my final selection and I took 73 solely for Hiller. My offense will probably be one of the weaker Tigers offenses, I do have a good Cobb but so do many folks and the rest of my position players are more defensive or balanced, than stud hitters, though 2007 Magglio and 24 Heilmann aren't too shabby.

With my solid defense (Cobb will actually play 1B with B+/A- defense there) led by Granderson and Lemon's A+ OF range, strong pitching, and Comerica park, this is yet another team that will have to win low-scoring games. What is wrong with me?

Cubs 04-39-43-67-85-21
Again, the deadball selection (1904) gave me a ton of innings--over 800 in this case between Mordecai Brown, Jake Weimer, and Carl Lundgren. I got 3 stud relievers from 2021 and then just needed some decent innings elsewhere to fill things out (including a starter version of Eckersley!). On the hitting side, again not much in the way of superstars but a lot of very good seasons led by 85 Sandberg, 67 Santo, and 43 Nicholson. Most teams should be playing in Wrigley, hopefully my deadballers can keep the home runs down on the Sosas out there and we can smallball our way to victories.

White Sox 15-35-61-63-96-21
(oops, didn't write anything here)

Indians 18-38-43-72-93-22
This was a late pick but 1918 got me two solid starters and a Tris Speaker to man CF. I paired that with a modern 2022 pick which netted me 3 great relievers but also a really good Jose Ramirez at 3B and Andres Gimenez who could play either 2B or SS with A+ range. That flexiblity proved useful and necessary later on. This draft moved very slowly and each time I came up to pick I felt like I had to re-figure out what the heck I was doing. Anyway, with my 3rd pick nothing popped out to me and so I took 1972 solely for the big Gaylord Perry season.

At my 4th pick, I was still scrambling to fill out basically my entire offense outside of Speaker, Ramirez and Gimenez. The catching options were dwindling as were SS so I went with 1943 to grab Lou Boudreau's unique season. Now I could grab the best C, SS, or 2B out there and let Boudreau (C/SS) and Gimenez (SS/2B) float as necessary. Of course, I forgot about this at my next pick and panicked at how bad the catching options left were. Luckily, figured this out in time and decided to go with 1993 Baerga at 2B, leaving Gimenez at SS and Boudreau at C. I also got a Belle and Lofton in the OF in addition to Averill, Heath, and Trosky with my final pick of 1938, so lots of competition at the corner OF spots around Speaker.

Red Sox 12-34-53-78-98-11
1912 got me Joe Wood (367 IP) and Buck O'Brien (294 IP) plus a huge year from Speaker in CF. I then went for 1998 to get a little bit of everything--Pedro as a SP, Nomar at SS, Mo Vaughn at 1B and a Tom Gordon in relief. My next pick fit of 2011 nicely, giving me a couple good relievers plus Ellsbury's $9.5m year in the OF and a very good Pedroia at 2B. At this point my team was mostly set, I just needed C, 3B, and maybe one more OF. Billy Werber was the best 3B left but nothing else came from 1934. I now needed a C and Fisk's 78 isnt his best year but it's solid plus I got both Jim Rice and Fred Lynn. For my final pick, I had a couple options for partial Ted Williams seasons. I could have opted for a 400-or-so PA season but instead I went for his 117-PA 1953 season with normalized slash numbers of .407/.505/.901. With Speaker/Ellsbury/Rice/Lynn, I didn't need volume so just went for the best quality. Again, though, I end up without a top season from a franchise's stud hitter.

Braves 17-31-62-82-00-03
In retrospect, I don't love the start of this draft. I took 2003 to get mostly offense--Javy Lopez's monster season, Sheffield, Giles, and Furcal. But I got no pitching (just a Smoltz relief year) so I overcompensated with 1917, which is high on volume but low on quality. I did end up roster 4 pitchers (3 starters) totaling over 800 innings but they aren't great. The best is Art Nehf with 2.42 ERC#. I did finally get a modern Braves pitcher, but 2000 is not Maddux's best season (though still pretty good!). It also got me my starting 3B and CF in the Joneses (Chipper and Andruw).

My next picks filled out my roster but the fit wasn't perfect, giving my lots of overlap. I took 1962 to get Hank Aaron (who can play 1B or OF) and a decent relief year from Don McMahon but the Eddie Mathews year is just okay and sits behind Chipper on the 3B depth chart. I took 1931 to get Wally Berger, who can also play 1B or OF, but he's barely an upgrade over my other options and he was the only thing I got from that pick. MY final pick of 1982 actually got me 250 IP of pretty good relief pitching between Garber and Bedrosian, plus Dale Murphy has a decent OF season...which of course I likely won't play with Sheffield, Aaron, Berger, and Andruw Jones holding down the 3 OF spots plus 1B.

Twins 15-33-53-64-92-13
This was my only team in League 7 meaning I had my pick of any of the 4 franchises. I decided it wasn't worth all the research so I just decided to get Walter Johnson and go with the Twins/Senators. His 1915 season came with two other decent starters that I ended up rostering both (Ayers and Gallia) and also a really good 43 IP relief season from George Dumont. I don't love my next pick of 1933 but I know my thinking at the time was to get some good options up the middle and I got a good Cronin and Buddy Myer as my double play combination.

1964 brough me some firepower in Bob Allison, Killebrew, and Oliva, while my 1992 pick was about Puckett and pitching. With my last two picks the thing I needed most was 3B and so that was the primary reason for 1953 with Eddie Yost. And finally 2013 got me my catchers (Mauer plus an 83-PA Josmil Pinto) plus two sub-2.00 ERC# relievers led by Caleb Thielbar's ridiculous relief season.

I'm too lazy to write up a "how I did" for all 13 of my teams so I condensed them into this graph.

Team	Actual Wins	Exp Wins	Proj. Wins	Difference (acutal/proj)	1 Run
Red Sox	85	82	86	-1	26-19
Yankees	79	78	90	-11	26-14
Cubs	91	94	85	+6	22-23
White Sox	86	89	78	+8	17-28
Dodgers	86	94	76	+10	21-25
Phillies	84	82	88	-4	22-27
Tigers	88	91	84	+4	28-19
Athletics	60	62	80	-20	19-27
Indians	90	84	90	0	24-15
Giants	80	78	86	-6	17-14
Pirates	85	83	82	+3	25-18
Cardinals	86	87	83	+3	24-19
Orioles	84	80	75	+9	28-23
Aggregate				+1

Overall - I was only off by 1 win for all 13 of my teams. I think that's excellent. The one that sticks out the most are the A's where I was off by 20. That team was a complete implosion. I'd say it's the worst juice league team I've ever had. Not only was it bad, but also unlucky with a 19-27 record in 1 run games. I got very lucky on my Indians team where I nailed the projection, but good luck in one run games allowed me to over-perform. Yankees underperformed because I didn't draft enough innings. Most of my guys were at performing at 90% throughout the season.