When it mattered the most, these guys just just did not come through. Through 150, I had 4 teams in. Now I have two and may very well end up with 1 playoff team with 2 games left.

Thru 160 games, one 80-80 team (1908-1909 Pittsburgh Pirates) would fail to advance...

There are 39 teams with 82+ wins
There are 5 teams with 81 wins (including 1 division leader)
There are 5 teams with 80 wins (including 1 division leader)
There are 6 teams with 79 wins

Of all teams with 80 or fewer wins that are either on the bubble or for sure not going to advance, here are the best Exp Win% teams... footballmm11 has been the unluckiest.
.

Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	DraftPick	Record	Exp Win%
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	---------------	----------	---------	----------
45	2002-03 Giants w/Derek & Alex	4	schwarze	20	80-80	0.535
61	2015-16 Chicago Cubs	4	beallendall	8	77-83	0.524
72	1952-53 Indians	3	ronthegenius	22	74-86	0.523
56	1909-10 Cubs + Lajoie + Walsh	1	footballmm11	7	78-82	0.522
77	1936-37 Yankees + Gehringer + Turner	2	footballmm11	8	73-87	0.521
74	2017-2018 Houston Trash Can Bangers	4	barracuda3	10	74-86	0.518
73	'56-'57 Yankees	3	urband	23	74-86	0.518
62	1941-1942 St Louis Cardinals	2	toysboys	18	77-83	0.516
46	1941-42 Dodgers w/Elmer & Ted	2	schwarze	20	80-80	0.516
71	1910-11 Athletics + Cobb + Walsh	1	footballmm11	3	75-85	0.515
50	White Sox '19 - '20 + Sisler & Adams	1	ejstockman	12	79-81	0.508
63	Oakland A's 89-90	4	Bill_James47	24	77-83	0.506

Ugh

I just updated the regression formula for Pick# vs Win Total. The correlation coefficient is +0.17. This results in the following Expected Wins table..
.

Pick#	.	ExpWins	.	Per162
1		85.9		87.0
2		85.4		86.4
3		84.9		85.9
4		84.4		85.4
5		83.8		84.9
6		83.3		84.4
7		82.8		83.9
8		82.3		83.3
9		81.8		82.8
10		81.3		82.3
11		80.8		81.8
12		80.3		81.3
13		79.7		80.7
14		79.2		80.2
15		78.7		79.7
16		78.2		79.2
17		77.7		78.7
18		77.2		78.1
19		76.7		77.6
20		76.2		77.1
21		75.6		76.6
22		75.1		76.1
23		74.6		75.6
24		74.1		75.0

Using this table above, it's easy to see which teams have done the best, relative to their draft position. The column titled "Exp Win" is using the regression formula (from above) - it is not using Exp Win% from the advanced standings. Here is a list of the top teams (thru 160 games).
.

Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	DraftPick	Record	Exp Win	Diff
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	---------------	----------	---------	------------	---------
1	2020-21 Dodgers + Soto + Bieber	4	footballmm11	1	110-50	85.9	24.1
3	1941-1942 New York Yankees	2	thejuice6	19	94-66	76.7	17.3
4	1997-98 Yankees	4	ronthegenius	17	94-66	77.7	16.3
18	1963-64 New York Yankees	3	DarthDurron	24	88-72	74.1	13.9
9	1905-06 Giants w/Cy & Nap	1	schwarze	15	91-69	78.7	12.3
17	1927-28 Giants w/Dazzy & Paul	2	schwarze	17	88-72	77.7	10.3
5	1960-61 Yankees w/Dick & Norm	3	schwarze	7	93-67	82.8	10.2
2	1901-02 Pittsburgh Pirates	1	pedrocerrano	1	96-64	85.9	10.1
16	1952-53 Brooklyn Dodgers	3	pedrocerrano	11	90-70	80.8	9.2
12	2004-05 Cardinals w/Randy & Barry	4	schwarze	9	91-69	81.8	9.2
6	1921-22 Yankees + Hornsby + Faber	2	footballmm11	4	93-67	84.4	8.6
19	2002-03 Braves w/Pedro & Todd	4	schwarze	15	87-73	78.7	8.3
39	1923-24 Babe & Dazzy's Giants	2	dougsdawgs13	24	82-78	74.1	7.9
7	1942-43 Yankees	2	SteveIzzy	2	93-67	85.4	7.6
34	1998-1999 Houston Astros	4	thejuice6	21	83-77	75.6	7.4
30	1953-54 Dodgers w/Warren & Willie	3	schwarze	19	84-76	76.7	7.3
11	1914-15 Boston Red Sox + Pete and Cobb	1	richiebrown6	5	91-69	83.8	7.2
20	1944-45 Cardinals w/Hal & Snuffy	2	schwarze	12	87-73	80.3	6.7
14	1943-1944 St. Louis Cardinals	2	barracuda3	6	90-70	83.3	6.7
26	Babe & Walter Join the 19-20 Indians	1	redcped	14	85-75	79.2	5.8
15	1953-54 Cleveland Indians	3	pedrocerrano	4	90-70	84.4	5.6
10	1902-03 Pirates w/Bill & Ed	1	schwarze	2	91-69	85.4	5.6
24	1906-07 Chicago Cubs	1	beallendall	13	85-75	79.7	5.3
8	1969-1970 Baltimore Orioles	3	kstober	1	91-69	85.9	5.1
33	Bigwig's '39-'40 Reds	2	njbigwig	16	83-77	78.2	4.8
21	1912-1913 NY Giants	1	kstober	8	87-73	82.3	4.7
13	2021-22 Dodgers + Judge + deGrom	4	footballmm11	2	90-70	85.4	4.6
45	2002-03 Giants w/Derek & Alex	4	schwarze	20	80-80	76.2	3.8
46	1941-42 Dodgers w/Elmer & Ted	2	schwarze	20	80-80	76.2	3.8
58	1931-32 Philadelphia Athletics	2	beallendall	23	78-82	74.6	3.4
55	1970-71 Orioles	3	84champs	21	79-81	75.6	3.4
36	Dodgers73-74SeaverCarew	3	SteveIzzy	15	82-78	78.7	3.3
31	10-11 Phillies	4	chisock	11	84-76	80.8	3.2
63	Oakland A's 89-90	4	Bill_James47	24	77-83	74.1	2.9
32	1957-58 Braves + Williams + Sullivan	3	footballmm11	12	83-77	80.3	2.7
29	1969-1970 Minnesota Twins	3	barracuda3	10	84-76	81.3	2.7
27	1937-1938 New York Yankees	2	toysboys	7	85-75	82.8	2.2
67	11/12 Cubs This Team Will Suck	1	joerat1	24	76-84	74.1	1.9
43	1972-73 Reds w/Don & Darrell	3	schwarze	14	81-79	79.2	1.8
54	1903-1904 New York Giants	1	barracuda3	17	79-81	77.7	1.3
23	Ted & Whit Join the 42-43 Cardinals	2	redcped	5	85-75	83.8	1.2
22	75/76 REDS	4	ybjsports	3	86-74	84.9	1.1
69	1928-1929 Cubs w/ 28’ Vance & 29’ Ruth	2	glowguy	22	76-84	75.1	0.9
53	1912-1913 Philadelphia Athletics	1	toysboys	16	79-81	78.2	0.8
37	08/09 CUBS	1	ybjsports	10	82-78	81.3	0.7
66	1995-1996 Indians w/ Brown and Piazza	4	glowguy	19	77-83	76.7	0.3
48	1935-1936 New York Yankees	2	toysboys	13	80-80	79.7	0.3
25	1927-28 New York Yankees	2	pedrocerrano	3	85-75	84.9	0.1

.

Here are the teams on the bubble, through 161 games. 82 wins is in. 80 wins is out. There are two 80-win non-playoff teams, but barracuda's Exp Win% might be too low to catch anybody. It's basically down to just my 2002-03 Giants team (which have lost 5 games in a row). If they can win game #162, they just need one of the 81-win teams to lose to move up, thanks to their Exp Win% tie-breaker. (The blue highlighted teams are in thanks to winning their weak division)
.

Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	Record	Exp Win%	Home	Playoff
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	---------------	---------	----------	---------	---------
42	Ty & Walter Join the 09-10 Athletics	1	redcped	81-80	0.521	0.450	1
43	1941-42 Dodgers w/Elmer & Ted	2	schwarze	81-80	0.518	0.568	0
44	1904-05 New York Giants	1	pedrocerrano	81-80	0.512	0.475	0
45	1935-1936 New York Yankees	2	toysboys	81-80	0.490	0.469	0
46	1967-1968 St. Louis Cardinals	3	emanes10	81-80	0.489	0.568	0
47	1908-1909 Pittsburgh Pirates	1	barracuda3	81-80	0.484	0.500	0
48	2002-03 Giants w/Derek & Alex	4	schwarze	80-81	0.532	0.506	0
49	2019-20 Los Angeles Dodgers	4	pedrocerrano	80-81	0.501	0.481	1
50	1903-1904 New York Giants	1	barracuda3	80-81	0.468	0.407	0

FINAL STANDINGS
.

Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	Record	Exp Win%	Home W%	Playoff
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	---------------	------------	--------------	-------------	---------
1	2020-21 Dodgers + Soto + Bieber	4	footballmm11	111-51	0.687	0.728	1
2	1901-02 Pittsburgh Pirates	1	pedrocerrano	96-66	0.591	0.580	1
3	1941-1942 New York Yankees	2	thejuice6	94-68	0.575	0.605	1
4	1997-98 Yankees	4	ronthegenius	94-68	0.547	0.543	1
5	1942-43 Yankees	2	SteveIzzy	94-68	0.545	0.654	1
6	1905-06 Giants w/Cy & Nap	1	schwarze	93-69	0.573	0.580	1
7	1960-61 Yankees w/Dick & Norm	3	schwarze	93-69	0.572	0.543	1
8	1921-22 Yankees + Hornsby + Faber	2	footballmm11	93-69	0.560	0.580	1
9	2021-22 Dodgers + Judge + deGrom	4	footballmm11	92-70	0.599	0.593	1
10	1943-1944 St. Louis Cardinals	2	barracuda3	92-70	0.566	0.593	1
11	1952-53 Brooklyn Dodgers	3	pedrocerrano	92-70	0.525	0.568	1
12	1969-1970 Baltimore Orioles	3	kstober	91-71	0.570	0.593	1
13	1902-03 Pirates w/Bill & Ed	1	schwarze	91-71	0.553	0.568	1
14	1914-15 Boston Red Sox + Pete and Cobb	1	richiebrown6	91-71	0.542	0.568	1
15	1953-54 Cleveland Indians	3	pedrocerrano	91-71	0.533	0.568	1
16	2004-05 Cardinals w/Randy & Barry	4	schwarze	91-71	0.517	0.593	1
17	1963-64 New York Yankees	3	DarthDurron	90-72	0.524	0.494	1
18	1927-28 Giants w/Dazzy & Paul	2	schwarze	88-74	0.541	0.568	0
19	1912-1913 NY Giants	1	kstober	88-74	0.521	0.481	1
20	Ted & Whit Join the 42-43 Cardinals	2	redcped	87-75	0.577	0.494	1
21	2002-03 Braves w/Pedro & Todd	4	schwarze	87-75	0.553	0.543	1
22	1944-45 Cardinals w/Hal & Snuffy	2	schwarze	87-75	0.533	0.481	1
23	Babe & Walter Join the 19-20 Indians	1	redcped	87-75	0.527	0.531	1
24	75/76 REDS	4	ybjsports	87-75	0.507	0.543	1
25	1961-1962 New York Yankees	3	barracuda3	86-76	0.566	0.605	1
26	1906-07 Chicago Cubs	1	beallendall	86-76	0.551	0.556	0
27	1927-28 New York Yankees	2	pedrocerrano	86-76	0.548	0.568	1
28	1969-1970 Minnesota Twins	3	barracuda3	85-77	0.538	0.481	1
29	1953-54 Dodgers w/Warren & Willie	3	schwarze	85-77	0.519	0.568	0.5
30	1957-58 Braves + Williams + Sullivan	3	footballmm11	85-77	0.506	0.506	0.5
31	Bigwig's '39-'40 Reds	2	njbigwig	85-77	0.492	0.519	0
32	1937-1938 New York Yankees	2	toysboys	85-77	0.486	0.494	0
33	10-11 Phillies	4	chisock	85-77	0.471	0.506	1
34	Mark & Pedro Join the 97-98 Braves	4	redcped	84-78	0.565	0.556	0
35	Dodgers73-74SeaverCarew	3	SteveIzzy	83-79	0.560	0.457	0
36	1926-27 Yankees w/Ted & Rogers	2	schwarze	83-79	0.517	0.556	0.5
37	1972-73 Reds w/Don & Darrell	3	schwarze	83-79	0.498	0.519	0
38	1923-24 Babe & Dazzy's Giants	2	dougsdawgs13	83-79	0.459	0.457	0.5
39	1998-1999 Houston Astros	4	thejuice6	83-79	0.433	0.568	0
40	1938-1939 NY Yankees	2	kstober	82-80	0.557	0.593	0
41	08/09 CUBS	1	ybjsports	82-80	0.523	0.519	1
42	Ty & Walter Join the 09-10 Athletics	1	redcped	82-80	0.523	0.457	1
43	1941-42 Dodgers w/Elmer & Ted	2	schwarze	82-80	0.521	0.568	0
44	1935-1936 New York Yankees	2	toysboys	82-80	0.490	0.469	0
45	1908-1909 Pittsburgh Pirates	1	barracuda3	82-80	0.489	0.506	0
46	2002-03 Giants w/Derek & Alex	4	schwarze	81-81	0.534	0.506	0
47	1904-05 New York Giants	1	pedrocerrano	81-81	0.512	0.469	0
50	2019-20 Los Angeles Dodgers	4	pedrocerrano	80-82	0.500	0.481	1
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	---------------	---------	----------	---------	---------
48	1967-1968 St. Louis Cardinals	3	emanes10	81-81	0.487	0.568	0
49	1903-1904 New York Giants	1	barracuda3	81-81	0.470	0.407	0
51	1955-1956 Brooklyn Dodgers	3	toysboys	80-82	0.491	0.469	0
52	1931-32 Philadelphia Athletics	2	beallendall	80-82	0.479	0.494	0
53	1912-1913 Philadelphia Athletics	1	toysboys	80-82	0.477	0.519	0
54	1970-71 Orioles	3	84champs	80-82	0.463	0.506	0
55	1996-1997 Atlanta Braves	4	barracuda3	80-82	0.439	0.494	0
56	1909-10 Cubs + Lajoie + Walsh	1	footballmm11	79-83	0.524	0.481	0
57	1941-1942 St Louis Cardinals	2	toysboys	79-83	0.522	0.506	0
58	Oakland A's 89-90	4	Bill_James47	79-83	0.514	0.457	0
59	White Sox '19 - '20 + Sisler & Adams	1	ejstockman	79-83	0.503	0.543	0
60	1905-1906 Chicago Cubs	1	toysboys	79-83	0.497	0.469	0
61	1931-1932 New York Yankees	2	barracuda3	79-83	0.495	0.383	0
62	1910-11 Giants + Cobb + Johnson	1	footballmm11	79-83	0.492	0.420	0
63	1995-1996 Indians w/ Brown and Piazza	4	glowguy	79-83	0.469	0.531	0
64	2015-16 Chicago Cubs	4	beallendall	78-84	0.525	0.469	0
65	Triple Nickel-Six Yankees	3	nordawg	78-84	0.462	0.494	0
66	The Bad Guys Won	4	taxman2008	78-84	0.456	0.494	0
67	1995-96 Braves	4	nocomm999	78-84	0.434	0.481	0
68	1910-11 Athletics + Cobb + Walsh	1	footballmm11	77-85	0.521	0.444	0
69	11/12 Cubs This Team Will Suck	1	joerat1	77-85	0.455	0.432	0
70	1928-1929 Cubs w/ 28’ Vance & 29’ Ruth	2	glowguy	77-85	0.442	0.481	0
71	1957-1958 New York Yankees	3	toysboys	77-85	0.433	0.420	0
72	1952-53 Indians	3	ronthegenius	75-87	0.523	0.506	0
73	'56-'57 Yankees	3	urband	75-87	0.517	0.519	0
74	2017-2018 Houston Trash Can Bangers	4	barracuda3	75-87	0.517	0.457	0
75	Juice Giants -1908-09	1	calhoop	75-87	0.441	0.506	0
76	1962-1963 New York Yankees	3	thejuice6	75-87	0.436	0.457	0
77	1936-37 Yankees + Gehringer + Turner	2	footballmm11	74-88	0.520	0.420	0
78	1948-49 Red Sox + Musial + Brecheen	3	footballmm11	74-88	0.485	0.358	0
79	1913-14 Athletics w/Walter & Tris	1	schwarze	74-88	0.479	0.457	0
80	2003-04 Braves + Bonds + Santana	4	footballmm11	73-89	0.472	0.469	0
81	Bobby & Don Join the 71-72 Athletics	3	redcped	73-89	0.468	0.481	0
82	2001-2002 Oakland Athletics	4	barracuda3	73-89	0.468	0.457	0
83	1993-94 Atlanta Braves	4	pedrocerrano	73-89	0.459	0.543	0
84	73-74 Reds (plus Evans and Perry)	3	spinaldog	73-89	0.450	0.370	0
85	1928-29 Philadelphia A's	2	pedrocerrano	71-91	0.448	0.481	0
86	1961-1962 Reds w/61’ Cash-62’ Aguirre	3	glowguy	71-91	0.405	0.432	0
87	2003-2004 New York Yankees	4	toysboys	69-93	0.434	0.469	0
88	1911-1912 New York Giants	1	thejuice6	69-93	0.398	0.395	0
89	47/48 YANKEES	3	ybjsports	68-94	0.473	0.432	0
90	1998-1999 Atlanta Braves	4	toysboys	68-94	0.457	0.358	0
91	1915-16 Phillies	1	ronthegenius	68-94	0.446	0.407	0
92	1911-1912 Philadelphia Athletics	1	emanes10	68-94	0.419	0.395	0
93	2018-2019 Houston Astros	4	kstober	66-96	0.477	0.432	0
94	1929-30 Athletics	2	nocomm999	66-96	0.428	0.407	0
95	24-5 senators, hornsby and vance	2	3dayrotation	62-100	0.428	0.358	0
96	Juice A's - 1930-31	2	calhoop	53-109	0.327	0.333	0

Only got 2 of 9 into the next round. Two teams were 80-82, and two were 79-83. None of them made the playoffs. A crappy overall round for me.

I was similar toysboys, 4 out of 10. Had 2 teams with 79 wins and 3 of my 6 non-advancers had Exp% over .520.

Ugh. Lost 3 straight to end the season and finish as the last team out. Was hoping to play next round, so keep me in mind if someone drops out!