Great synopsis.. I just didn't have the time the same thing for my 13 teams.

Posted by footballmm11 on 8/14/2023 9:20:00 PM (view original):
At the risk of looking foolish in two months, but since I have my spreadsheet set up to do this anyway, here are the projected standings by league. "lg val" is just a relative value above/below average team for each league. I then made a guess at converting that into a W-L record. Of course since I used these valuations to actually make my picks, my teams will be inflated here.

League 1

lg#	fran	syr	owner	div	hitter	pitcher	pick	lg rk	lg val	xW	xL	x%
1	OAK	1910	footballmm11	6:ALW	1911 Ty Cobb	1910 Ed Walsh	3	1	6452	93.9	68.1	0.580
1	PIT	1901	pedrocerrano	1:NLE	1901 Nap Lajoie	1901 Cy Young	1	2	4266	89.5	72.5	0.553
1	CHC	1909	footballmm11	2:NLC	1910 Nap Lajoie	1910 Ed Walsh	7	3	3570	88.1	73.9	0.544
1	OAK	1909	redcped	3:NLW	1910 Ty Cobb	1910 Walter Johnson	4	4	3287	87.6	74.4	0.541
1	CLE	1919	redcped	5:ALC	1920 Babe Ruth	1919 Walter Johnson	14	5	3055	87.1	74.9	0.538
1	CHC	1911	joerat1	1:NLE	1911 Ty Cobb	1912 Walter Johnson	24	6	2186	85.4	76.6	0.527
1	BOS	1914	richiebrown6	5:ALC	1915 Ty Cobb	1915 Pete Alexander	5	7	1878	84.8	77.2	0.523
1	OAK	1912	toysboys	4:ALE	1912 Tris Speaker	1913 Walter Johnson	16	8	1331	83.7	78.3	0.516
1	SFG	1912	kstober	2:NLC	1912 Ty Cobb	1912 Walter Johnson	8	9	722	82.4	79.6	0.509
1	PIT	1902	schwarze	4:ALE	1902 Ed Delahanty	1902 Bill Bernhard	2	10	664	82.3	79.7	0.508
1	SFG	1904	pedrocerrano	5:ALC	1904 Nap Lajoie	1904 Jack Chesbro	6	11	448	81.9	80.1	0.506
1	SFG	1911	thejuice6	6:ALW	1911 Joe Jackson	1912 Joe Wood	23	13	0	81.0	81.0	0.500
1	CHW	1919	ejstockman	2:NLC	1920 George Sisler	1919 Babe Adams	12	14	-201	80.6	81.4	0.498
1	SFG	1910	footballmm11	5:ALC	1910 Ty Cobb	1910 Walter Johnson	18	15	-747	79.5	82.5	0.491
1	CHC	1908	ybjsports	6:ALW	1909 Eddie Collins	1908 Addie Joss	10	16	-1395	78.2	83.8	0.483
1	OAK	1913	schwarze	6:ALW	1914 Tris Speaker	1913 Walter Johnson	19	18	-1709	77.6	84.4	0.479
1	PHI	1915	ronthegenius	3:NLW	1916 Tris Speaker	1915 Walter Johnson	21	20	-2131	76.7	85.3	0.474
1	CHC	1905	toysboys	3:NLW	1905 Cy Seymour	1906 Tully Sparks	11	21	-2263	76.5	85.5	0.472
1	SFG	1905	schwarze	1:NLE	1906 Nap Lajoie	1905 Cy Young	15	22	-2496	76.0	86.0	0.469
1	SFG	1903	barracuda3	4:ALE	1904 Nap Lajoie	1904 Jack Chesbro	17	24	-3224	74.6	87.4	0.460
1	OAK	1911	emanes10	3:NLW	1912 Tris Speaker	1911 Ed Walsh	20	26	-3314	74.4	87.6	0.459
1	PIT	1908	barracuda3	2:NLC	1909 Sam Crawford	1908 Cy Young	9	27	-3355	74.3	87.7	0.459
1	CHC	1906	beallendall	4:ALE	1906 Nap Lajoie	1906 Doc White	13	28	-3457	74.1	87.9	0.457
1	SFG	1908	calhoop	1:NLE	1909 Ty Cobb	1908 Ed Walsh	22	31	-4498	72.0	90.0	0.444

League 2

lg#	fran	syr	owner	div	hitter	pitcher	pick	lg rk	lg val	xW	xL	x%
2	NYY	1927	pedrocerrano	6:ALW	1928 Rogers Hornsby	1928 Garland Braxton	3	1	7770	96.5	65.5	0.596
2	NYY	1926	schwarze	1:NLE	1927 Rogers Hornsby	1927 Ted Lyons	1	2	5982	93.0	69.0	0.574
2	NYY	1921	footballmm11	3:NLW	1922 Rogers Hornsby	1921 Red Faber	4	3	5712	92.4	69.6	0.571
2	NYY	1936	footballmm11	4:ALE	1937 Charlie Gehringer	1937 Jim Turner	8	6	2771	86.5	75.5	0.534
2	SFG	1923	dougsdawgs13	1:NLE	1923 Babe Ruth	1924 Dazzy Vance	24	7	1726	84.5	77.5	0.521
2	NYY	1938	kstober	2:NLC	1938 Joe Cronin	1939 Bucky Walters	10	8	922	82.8	79.2	0.511
2	NYY	1935	toysboys	3:NLW	1935 Arky Vaughan	1936 Carl Hubbell	13	9	402	81.8	80.2	0.505
2	NYY	1937	toysboys	4:ALE	1937 Joe Medwick	1937 Jim Turner	7	10	307	81.6	80.4	0.504
2	STL	1942	redcped	5:ALC	1942 Ted Williams	1943 Whit Wyatt	5	11	267	81.5	80.5	0.503
2	OAK	1931	beallendall	6:ALW	1932 Chuck Klein	1932 Carl Hubbell	23	12	129	81.3	80.7	0.502
2	MIN	1924	3dayrotation	2:NLC	1924 Rogers Hornsby	1924 Dazzy Vance	15	14	-162	80.7	81.3	0.498
2	OAK	1928	pedrocerrano	3:NLW	1928 Rogers Hornsby	1928 Burleigh Grimes	9	15	-228	80.5	81.5	0.497
2	NYY	1941	thejuice6	2:NLC	1942 Ted Williams	1942 Johnny Vander Meer	19	17	-576	79.8	82.2	0.493
2	NYY	1931	barracuda3	5:ALC	1932 Mel Ott	1932 Red Lucas	14	18	-718	79.6	82.4	0.491
2	OAK	1930	calhoop	1:NLE	1931 Babe Ruth	1931 Lefty Gomez	21	20	-1677	77.6	84.4	0.479
2	OAK	1929	nocomm999	5:ALC	1930 Babe Ruth	1930 Dazzy Vance	11	21	-1788	77.4	84.6	0.478
2	CHC	1928	glowguy	6:ALW	1929 Babe Ruth	1928 Dazzy Vance	22	22	-1986	77.0	85.0	0.475
2	LAD	1941	schwarze	5:ALC	1941 Ted Williams	1941 Elmer Riddle	20	24	-2070	76.9	85.1	0.474
2	CIN	1939	njbigwig	4:ALE	1939 Joe Dimaggio	1940 Bob Feller	16	25	-2286	76.4	85.6	0.472
2	STL	1944	schwarze	6:ALW	1945 Snuffy Stirnweiss	1945 Hal Newhouser	12	26	-2342	76.3	85.7	0.471
2	STL	1943	barracuda3	2:NLC	1944 Bob Johnson	1943 Spud Chandler	6	27	-2539	75.9	86.1	0.469
2	STL	1941	toysboys	1:NLE	1941 Joe Dimaggio	1941 Thornton Lee	18	30	-4449	72.1	89.9	0.445
2	SFG	1927	schwarze	3:NLW	1927 Paul Waner	1928 Dazzy Vance	17	31	-4463	72.1	89.9	0.445
2	NYY	1942	steveizzy	4:ALE	1943 Bill Nicholson	1943 Johnny Niggeling	2	38	-5174	70.7	91.3	0.436

League 3

lg#	fran	syr	owner	div	hitter	pitcher	pick	lg rk	lg val	xW	xL	x%
3	NYY	1956	urband	2:NLC	1957 Ted Williams	1956 Don Newcombe	23	1	2584	86.2	75.8	0.532
3	CLE	1953	pedrocerrano	4:ALE	1954 Ted Williams	1953 Robin Roberts	4	2	2396	85.8	76.2	0.530
3	LAD	1953	schwarze	2:NLC	1954 Willie Mays	1953 Warren Spahn	19	3	2193	85.4	76.6	0.527
3	NYY	1961	barracuda3	2:NLC	1961 Jim Gentile	1962 Sandy Koufax	3	4	1885	84.8	77.2	0.523
3	ATL	1957	footballmm11	3:NLW	1957 Ted Williams	1957 Frank Sullivan	12	5	1680	84.4	77.6	0.521
3	BOS	1948	footballmm11	5:ALC	1948 Stan Musial	1948 Harry Brecheen	5	6	1334	83.7	78.3	0.516
3	BAL	1969	kstober	6:ALW	1969 Rico Petrocelli	1969 Bill Singer	1	7	986	83.0	79.0	0.512
3	OAK	1971	redcped	5:ALC	1971 Bobby Murcer	1972 Don Sutton	8	10	536	82.1	79.9	0.507
3	NYY	1960	schwarze	3:NLW	1961 Norm Cash	1961 Dick Donovan	7	11	442	81.9	80.1	0.505
3	CLE	1952	ronthegenius	3:NLW	1953 Stan Musial	1953 Warren Spahn	22	12	313	81.6	80.4	0.504
3	LAD	1955	toysboys	4:ALE	1955 Ernie Banks	1956 Herb Score	13	13	0	81.0	81.0	0.500
3	NYY	1955	nordawg	4:ALE	1955 Willie Mays	1956 Warren Spahn	17	15	-229	80.5	81.5	0.497
3	NYY	1947	ybjsports	6:ALW	1948 Stan Musial	1948 Harry Brecheen	20	16	-446	80.1	81.9	0.494
3	NYY	1957	toysboys	1:NLE	1957 Nellie Fox	1957 Billy Pierce	9	17	-880	79.2	82.8	0.489
3	LAD	1973	steveizzy	1:NLE	1973 Rod Carew	1973 Tom Seaver	15	18	-1174	78.7	83.3	0.486
3	LAD	1952	pedrocerrano	1:NLE	1953 Eddie Mathews	1952 Robin Roberts	11	20	-1373	78.3	83.7	0.483
3	CIN	1972	schwarze	6:ALW	1972 Bobby Murcer	1972 Don Sutton	14	21	-1448	78.1	83.9	0.482
3	NYY	1962	thejuice6	4:ALE	1962 Frank Robinson	1963 Juan Marichal	18	23	-1684	77.6	84.4	0.479
3	STL	1967	emanes10	1:NLE	1967 Carl Yastrzemski	1968 Luis Tiant	2	24	-1760	77.5	84.5	0.478
3	MIN	1969	barracuda3	5:ALC	1970 Carl Yastrzemski	1969 Juan Marichal	10	28	-2327	76.3	85.7	0.471
3	NYY	1963	darthdurron	5:ALC	1964 Denis Menke	1963 Sandy Koufax	24	30	-2569	75.9	86.1	0.468
3	BAL	1970	84champs	6:ALW	1970 Joe Torre	1971 Vida Blue	21	36	-3635	73.7	88.3	0.455
3	CIN	1973	spinaldog	3:NLW	1973 Darrell Evans	1974 Gaylord Perry	6	38	-4649	71.7	90.3	0.443
3	CIN	1961	glowguy	2:NLC	1961 Norm Cash	1962 Hank Aguirre	16	43	-6136	68.7	93.3	0.424

League 4

lg#	fran	syr	owner	div	hitter	pitcher	pick	lg rk	lg val	xW	xL	x%
4	LAD	2020	footballmm11	1:NLE	2020 Juan Soto	2020 Shane Bieber	1	1	13068	107.1	54.9	0.661
4	LAD	2021	footballmm11	4:ALE	2022 Aaron Judge	2021 Jacob deGrom	2	2	9982	101.0	61.0	0.623
4	LAD	2019	pedrocerrano	5:ALC	2020 Freddie Freeman	2020 Shane Bieber	5	3	8349	97.7	64.3	0.603
4	HOU	2018	kstober	3:NLW	2018 Mookie Betts	2018 Jacob deGrom	4	4	5677	92.4	69.6	0.570
4	STL	2004	schwarze	3:NLW	2004 Barry Bonds	2004 Randy Johnson	9	5	5518	92.0	70.0	0.568
4	ATL	1997	redcped	2:NLC	1998 Mark McGwire	1997 Pedro Martinez	7	6	2946	86.9	75.1	0.536
4	ATL	1996	barracuda3	2:NLC	1997 Larry Walker	1997 Pedro Martinez	6	7	2318	85.6	76.4	0.529
4	ATL	1998	toysboys	5:ALC	1998 Mark McGwire	1998 Roger Clemens	12	8	2180	85.4	76.6	0.527
4	CHC	2015	beallendall	6:ALW	2015 Bryce Harper	2015 Zack Greinke	8	9	2011	85.0	77.0	0.525
4	ATL	2002	schwarze	2:NLC	2003 Todd Helton	2002 Pedro Martinez	15	10	1086	83.2	78.8	0.513
4	NYY	1997	ronthegenius	3:NLW	1997 Larry Walker	1997 Roger Clemens	17	11	226	81.5	80.5	0.503
4	ATL	2003	footballmm11	6:ALW	2003 Barry Bonds	2004 Johan Santana	14	12	147	81.3	80.7	0.502
4	HOU	2017	barracuda3	6:ALW	2018 Mookie Betts	2018 Jacob deGrom	10	13	0	81.0	81.0	0.500
4	SFG	2002	schwarze	4:ALE	2002 Alex Rodriguez	2002 Derek Lowe	20	14	-254	80.5	81.5	0.497
4	OAK	2001	barracuda3	1:NLE	2001 Barry Bonds	2002 Pedro Martinez	23	15	-634	79.7	82.3	0.492
4	HOU	1998	thejuice6	4:ALE	1998 Barry Bonds	1999 Pedro Martinez	21	16	-1310	78.4	83.6	0.484
4	NYY	2003	toysboys	1:NLE	2004 Barry Bonds	2004 Randy Johnson	16	17	-1866	77.3	84.7	0.477
4	ATL	1993	pedrocerrano	3:NLW	1994 Jeff Bagwell	1993 Kevin Appier	22	18	-1948	77.1	84.9	0.476
4	ATL	1995	nocomm999	2:NLC	1996 Alex Rodriguez	1995 Randy Johnson	13	19	-2064	76.9	85.1	0.475
4	PHI	2010	chisock	4:ALE	2011 Jose Bautista	2011 Justin Verlander	11	23	-3134	74.7	87.3	0.461
4	OAK	1989	bill_james47	1:NLE	1989 Howard Johnson	1989 Bret Saberhagen	24	27	-5286	70.4	91.6	0.435
4	CIN	1975	ybjsports	6:ALW	1975 Fred Lynn	1975 Jim Palmer	3	29	-6589	67.8	94.2	0.419
4	CLE	1995	glowguy	5:ALC	1995 Mike Piazza	1996 Kevin Brown	19	32	-7221	66.6	95.4	0.411
4	NYM	1985	taxman2008	5:ALC	1985 Willie McGee	1985 John Tudor	18	39	-10259	60.5	101.5	0.373

Foolish was correct! Here's the full win projections, compared to both Actual wins and "Expected" wins (based off Exp.%). Table is sorted by Actual wins minus Projected wins, with teams that outperformed my projections by the most at the top.

Rk	Team	Owner	Lg#	Proj W	Proj %	Act W	Act %	Exp W	Exp %	Act vs Proj	Exp vs Proj
5	1942-43 Yankees	SteveIzzy	2	71	0.438	94	0.580	88	0.545	23	17
24	75/76 REDS	ybjsports	4	68	0.419	87	0.537	82	0.507	19	14
66	The Bad Guys Won	Taxman2008	4	61	0.375	78	0.481	74	0.456	17	13
10	1943-1944 St. Louis Cardinals	barracuda3	2	76	0.471	92	0.568	92	0.566	16	15
6	1905-06 Giants w/Cy & Nap	schwarze	1	77	0.477	93	0.574	93	0.573	16	15
18	1927-28 Giants w/Dazzy & Paul	schwarze	2	72	0.447	88	0.543	88	0.541	16	15
17	1963-64 New York Yankees	DarthDurron	3	76	0.469	90	0.556	85	0.524	14	9
3	1941-1942 New York Yankees	thejuice6	2	80	0.495	94	0.580	93	0.575	14	13
11	1952-53 Brooklyn Dodgers	pedrocerrano	3	78	0.484	92	0.568	85	0.525	14	7
63	1995-1996 Indians w/ Brown and Piazza	glowguy	4	67	0.411	79	0.488	76	0.469	12	9
4	1997-98 Yankees	ronthegenius	4	82	0.504	94	0.580	89	0.547	12	7
7	1960-61 Yankees w/Dick & Norm	schwarze	3	82	0.505	93	0.574	93	0.572	11	11
22	1944-45 Cardinals w/Hal & Snuffy	schwarze	2	77	0.473	87	0.537	86	0.533	10	10
32	10-11 Phillies	Chisock	4	75	0.461	85	0.525	76	0.471	10	2
26	1906-07 Chicago Cubs	BeAllEndAll	1	76	0.470	86	0.531	89	0.551	10	13
29	1969-1970 Minnesota Twins	barracuda3	3	77	0.473	85	0.525	87	0.538	8	11
58	Oakland A's 89-90	Bill_James47	4	71	0.436	79	0.488	83	0.514	8	13
30	Bigwig's '39-'40 Reds	njbigwig	2	77	0.474	85	0.525	80	0.492	8	3
13	1902-03 Pirates w/Bill & Ed	schwarze	1	83	0.511	91	0.562	90	0.553	8	7
12	1969-1970 Baltimore Orioles	kstober	3	83	0.514	91	0.562	92	0.570	8	9
45	1908-1909 Pittsburgh Pirates	barracuda3	1	75	0.461	82	0.506	79	0.489	7	5
57	1941-1942 St Louis Cardinals	toysboys	2	72	0.447	79	0.488	85	0.522	7	12
14	1914-15 Boston Red Sox + Pete and Cobb	richiebrown6	1	85	0.524	91	0.562	88	0.542	6	3
54	1970-71 Orioles	84champs	3	74	0.456	80	0.494	75	0.463	6	1
2	1901-02 Pittsburgh Pirates	pedrocerrano	1	90	0.556	96	0.593	96	0.591	6	6
49	1903-1904 New York Giants	barracuda3	1	75	0.464	81	0.500	76	0.470	6	1
20	Ted & Whit Join the 42-43 Cardinals	redcped	2	82	0.505	87	0.537	93	0.577	5	12
19	1912-1913 NY Giants	kstober	1	83	0.513	88	0.543	84	0.521	5	1
15	1953-54 Cleveland Indians	pedrocerrano	3	86	0.531	91	0.562	86	0.533	5	0
43	1941-42 Dodgers w/Elmer & Ted	schwarze	2	77	0.476	82	0.506	84	0.521	5	7
38	1998-1999 Houston Astros	thejuice6	4	78	0.483	83	0.512	70	0.433	5	-8
37	1972-73 Reds w/Don & Darrell	schwarze	3	79	0.486	83	0.512	81	0.498	4	2
36	Dodgers73-74SeaverCarew	SteveIzzy	3	79	0.487	83	0.512	91	0.560	4	12
1	2020-21 Dodgers + Soto + Bieber	footballmm11	4	107	0.661	111	0.685	111	0.687	4	4
21	2002-03 Braves w/Pedro & Todd	schwarze	4	83	0.514	87	0.537	90	0.553	4	6
48	1967-1968 St. Louis Cardinals	emanes10	3	78	0.480	81	0.500	79	0.487	3	1
31	1937-1938 New York Yankees	toysboys	2	82	0.506	85	0.525	79	0.486	3	-3
75	Juice Giants -1908-09	calhoop	1	73	0.448	75	0.463	71	0.441	2	-1
60	1905-1906 Chicago Cubs	toysboys	1	77	0.475	79	0.488	81	0.497	2	4
86	1961-1962 Reds w/61’ Cash-62’ Aguirre	glowguy	3	69	0.426	71	0.438	66	0.405	2	-3
42	08/09 CUBS	ybjsports	1	81	0.497	82	0.506	85	0.523	1	4
25	1961-1962 New York Yankees	barracuda3	3	85	0.523	86	0.531	92	0.566	1	7
84	73-74 Reds (plus Evans and Perry)	spinaldog	3	72	0.444	73	0.451	73	0.450	1	1
67	1995-96 Braves	nocomm999	4	77	0.475	78	0.481	70	0.434	1	-7
8	1921-22 Yankees + Hornsby + Faber	footballmm11	2	92	0.570	93	0.574	91	0.560	1	-2
33	1957-58 Braves + Williams + Sullivan	footballmm11	3	85	0.522	85	0.521	82	0.504	0	-3
28	1953-54 Dodgers w/Warren & Willie	schwarze	3	86	0.528	86	0.528	84	0.521	0	-1
46	2002-03 Giants w/Derek & Alex	schwarze	4	81	0.499	81	0.500	87	0.534	0	6
47	1904-05 New York Giants	pedrocerrano	1	81	0.500	81	0.500	83	0.512	0	2
44	1935-1936 New York Yankees	toysboys	2	82	0.507	82	0.506	79	0.490	0	-3
70	1928-1929 Cubs w/ 28’ Vance & 29’ Ruth	glowguy	2	77	0.478	77	0.475	72	0.442	0	-6
23	Babe & Walter Join the 19-20 Indians	redcped	1	88	0.541	87	0.537	85	0.527	-1	-2
61	1931-1932 New York Yankees	barracuda3	2	80	0.493	79	0.488	80	0.495	-1	0
51	1955-1956 Brooklyn Dodgers	toysboys	3	81	0.500	80	0.494	80	0.491	-1	-1
16	2004-05 Cardinals w/Randy & Barry	schwarze	4	92	0.568	91	0.562	84	0.517	-1	-8
62	1910-11 Giants + Cobb + Johnson	footballmm11	1	80	0.495	79	0.488	80	0.492	-1	0
40	1938-1939 NY Yankees	kstober	2	83	0.515	82	0.506	90	0.557	-1	7
52	1931-32 Philadelphia Athletics	BeAllEndAll	2	82	0.504	80	0.494	78	0.479	-2	-4
59	White Sox '19 - '20 + Sisler & Adams	ejstockman	1	81	0.500	79	0.488	81	0.503	-2	0
39	1923-24 Babe & Dazzy's Giants	Dougsdawgs13	2	85	0.527	83	0.509	74	0.458	-2	-11
76	1962-1963 New York Yankees	thejuice6	3	78	0.479	75	0.463	71	0.436	-3	-7
71	1957-1958 New York Yankees	toysboys	3	80	0.492	77	0.475	70	0.433	-3	-9
34	Mark & Pedro Join the 97-98 Braves	redcped	4	87	0.535	84	0.519	92	0.565	-3	5
65	Triple Nickel-Six Yankees	nordawg	3	81	0.499	78	0.481	75	0.462	-3	-6
83	1993-94 Atlanta Braves	pedrocerrano	4	77	0.476	73	0.451	74	0.459	-4	-3
79	1913-14 Athletics w/Walter & Tris	schwarze	1	78	0.483	74	0.457	78	0.479	-4	-1
53	1912-1913 Philadelphia Athletics	toysboys	1	84	0.520	80	0.494	77	0.477	-4	-7
55	1996-1997 Atlanta Braves	barracuda3	4	86	0.529	80	0.494	71	0.439	-6	-15
74	2017-2018 Houston Trash Can Bangers	barracuda3	4	81	0.500	75	0.463	84	0.517	-6	3
41	Ty & Walter Join the 09-10 Athletics	redcped	1	88	0.544	82	0.506	85	0.523	-6	-3
81	2001-2002 Oakland Athletics	barracuda3	4	80	0.493	73	0.451	76	0.468	-7	-4
72	1952-53 Indians	ronthegenius	3	82	0.506	75	0.463	85	0.523	-7	3
64	2015-16 Chicago Cubs	BeAllEndAll	4	85	0.525	78	0.481	85	0.525	-7	0
92	1911-1912 Philadelphia Athletics	emanes10	1	75	0.464	68	0.420	68	0.419	-7	-7
87	2003-2004 New York Yankees	toysboys	4	77	0.477	69	0.426	70	0.434	-8	-7
9	2021-22 Dodgers + Judge + deGrom	footballmm11	4	101	0.623	92	0.568	97	0.599	-9	-4
69	11/12 Cubs This Team Will Suck	joerat1	1	86	0.531	77	0.475	74	0.455	-9	-12
80	2003-04 Braves + Bonds + Santana	footballmm11	4	82	0.506	73	0.451	76	0.472	-9	-6
35	1926-27 Yankees w/Ted & Rogers	schwarze	2	93	0.576	84	0.515	84	0.518	-9	-9
82	Bobby & Don Join the 71-72 Athletics	redcped	3	82	0.508	73	0.451	76	0.468	-9	-6
91	1915-16 Phillies	ronthegenius	1	77	0.477	68	0.420	72	0.446	-9	-5
56	1909-10 Cubs + Lajoie + Walsh	footballmm11	1	89	0.548	79	0.488	85	0.524	-10	-4
85	1928-29 Philadelphia A's	pedrocerrano	2	81	0.499	71	0.438	73	0.448	-10	-8
78	1948-49 Red Sox + Musial + Brecheen	footballmm11	3	84	0.519	74	0.457	79	0.485	-10	-5
27	1927-28 New York Yankees	pedrocerrano	2	97	0.597	86	0.531	89	0.548	-11	-8
73	'56-'57 Yankees	urband	3	86	0.533	75	0.463	84	0.517	-11	-3
94	1929-30 Athletics	nocomm999	2	78	0.479	66	0.407	69	0.428	-12	-8
89	47/48 YANKEES	ybjsports	3	80	0.494	68	0.420	77	0.473	-12	-3
88	1911-1912 New York Giants	thejuice6	1	81	0.502	69	0.426	64	0.398	-12	-17
77	1936-37 Yankees + Gehringer + Turner	footballmm11	2	87	0.535	74	0.457	84	0.520	-13	-2
68	1910-11 Athletics + Cobb + Walsh	footballmm11	1	94	0.581	77	0.475	84	0.521	-17	-10
90	1998-1999 Atlanta Braves	toysboys	4	85	0.526	68	0.420	74	0.457	-17	-11
50	2019-20 Los Angeles Dodgers	pedrocerrano	4	98	0.603	80	0.494	81	0.500	-18	-17
95	24-5 senators, hornsby and vance	3dayrotation	2	81	0.500	62	0.383	69	0.428	-19	-12
96	Juice A's - 1930-31	calhoop	2	78	0.481	53	0.327	53	0.327	-25	-25
93	2018-2019 Houston Astros	kstober	4	92	0.570	66	0.407	77	0.477	-26	-15

Posted by footballmm11 on 8/16/2023 8:39:00 PM (view original):

Posted by schwarze on 8/16/2023 8:33:00 PM (view original):
You're right about my 27-28 Giants. I sorted by overall, and my 44-45 Cardinals are +0.2 but are 7th in the AL, while I have my 27-28 Giants worse (-0.2) but 6th in the NL. I corrected my post.

I did notice that you seem to hate the 1940's Cardinals teams. Maybe your formulas are biased against strong/deep pitching teams in big offense-dominant leagues. Your numbers seem to like the hitting teams more than I do.

Yes. I would guess I am mostly just wrong here and the Cardinals do better than I expect. Likely some asymmetries and non-linear aspects that I am not accounting for in higher-cap environments.

I'll summarize the teams I'm following closely:

TEAMS I'M MUCH HIGHER ON (top 12 in league, schwarze has not advancing):

team	owner	lgrk
NYY1956	urband	1
SFG1923	dougsdawgs13	7
BOS1914	richiebrown6	7
BOS1948	footballmm11	6
SFG1912	kstober	9
NYY1935	toysboys	9
CLE1952	ronthegenius	11
NYY1997	ronthegenius	12
OAK1931	beallendall	12
SFG1911	thejuice6	12

* Particularly interested in 56-57 Yankees. Wow!

TEAMS SCHWARZE IS MUCH HIGHER ON (schwarze has advancing, I have 19th or lower):

team	owner	lgrk
CIN1975	ybjsports	26
NYY1942	steveizzy	28
SFG1927	schwarze	25
SFG1908	calhoop	27
STL1943	barracuda3	23
MIN1969	barracuda3	24
LAD1941	schwarze	20
SFG1905	schwarze	19
STL1967	emanes10	22
LAD1952	pedrocerrano	20
CIN1972	schwarze	19

schwarze already won this battle by 3rd round knockout, but here's the final summary anyway...

SCHWARZE-favored teams...
.541 actual win% (9 out of 10 advance...and the other is the first team out!)
.530 expected win% (8 out of 10 "should" advance)

Rk	Team	Owner	Lg#	Act W	Act %	Exp W	Exp %
5	1942-43 Yankees	SteveIzzy	2	94	0.580	88	0.545
6	1905-06 Giants w/Cy & Nap	schwarze	1	93	0.574	93	0.573
10	1943-1944 St. Louis Cardinals	barracuda3	2	92	0.568	92	0.566
11	1952-53 Brooklyn Dodgers	pedrocerrano	3	92	0.568	85	0.525
18	1927-28 Giants w/Dazzy & Paul	schwarze	2	88	0.543	88	0.541
24	75/76 REDS	ybjsports	4	87	0.537	82	0.507
29	1969-1970 Minnesota Twins	barracuda3	3	85	0.525	87	0.538
37	1972-73 Reds w/Don & Darrell	schwarze	3	83	0.512	81	0.498
43	1941-42 Dodgers w/Elmer & Ted	schwarze	2	82	0.506	84	0.521
48	1967-1968 St. Louis Cardinals	emanes10	3	81	0.500	79	0.487

FOOTBALLMM11-favored teams...
.509 actual win% (5 out of 9 advance)
.507 expected win% (5 out of 9 "should" advance)

Rk	Team	Owner	Lg#	Act W	Act %	Exp W	Exp %
4	1997-98 Yankees	ronthegenius	4	94	0.580	89	0.547
14	1914-15 Boston Red Sox + Pete and Cobb	richiebrown6	1	91	0.562	88	0.542
19	1912-1913 NY Giants	kstober	1	88	0.543	84	0.521
39	1923-24 Babe & Dazzy's Giants	Dougsdawgs13	2	83	0.509	74	0.458
44	1935-1936 New York Yankees	toysboys	2	82	0.506	79	0.490
52	1931-32 Philadelphia Athletics	BeAllEndAll	2	80	0.494	78	0.479
72	1952-53 Indians	ronthegenius	3	75	0.463	85	0.523
73	'56-'57 Yankees	urband	3	75	0.463	84	0.517
78	1948-49 Red Sox + Musial + Brecheen	footballmm11	3	74	0.457	79	0.485

Posted by richiebrown6 on 8/16/2023 9:06:00 PM (view original):
League 1, Pick 5:
1914-1915 Boston Red Sox
Pete Alexander and Ty Cobb

When juice first posted this draft I decided to research all the possible teams at least a little bit, even with my only having 1 team. My research was mostly skimming the baseball reference pages for the teams,, and then building the better ones to see how they looked. I decided on a Top 9 for each league, knowing I'd probably pick around 4-7 in whatever league I was in. I really wanted to pick in either League 1 or League 4, as I hated the League 2 and 3 options. So I was ultimately assigned pick 5 in League 1. I had the 01-02 Pirates and the 09-11 A's as the best teams in league 1, but they all went before me. So I went with my next best option, the 1914-1915 Boston Red Sox. This team obviously gets Pete and Cobb, but I saw the team as a spectacular option. The pitching is incredible (easily top 3 in the league), and the hitting is at least okay everywhere. As in my previous rounds, I focused on the depth, and the depth with these Sox was the best in the league. Really excited to get to play with this team. My prediction is that this team is the clear division winner in the AL Central; I thing schwarze is underestimating me. Looking forward to seeing if my team plays up to my expectations!

This team's regular season turned out exactly as I hoped! Ended with a 29-27 record in 1-run games, which leaves me with a very impressive 62-44 record in 2+ run games and an easy division title. Think I nailed setting up this team from the get-go, which helped me clinch the division with 9 games to go. That afforded me a chance to rest some of my platoon guys down the stretch for the playoffs, which may have cost me 4-5 spots overall but hopefully will help me in the playoffs. I think my offense was a bit underrated; having Babe Ruth as a pitcher batting was huge, as he tied for 4th in the league in homers. Beyond that, this team had a lot of lefties, which I think helped in an era with strong right-handed pitchers but few ace lefties. Very happy to continue a strong stretch from my 1 team, going to round 6!

Yes, your offense was much better than anticipated and I've admitted that my formulas don't include pitchers hitting, which clearly caused me to underrate your offense, Since pitchers' hitting stats aren't in the player database spreadsheet, I would have to manually adjust the numbers, which would be a monumental task... but probably worth it for the obvious great hitting pitchers.

Posted by schwarze on 10/14/2023 11:46:00 AM (view original):
Yes, your offense was much better than anticipated and I've admitted that my formulas don't include pitchers hitting, which clearly caused me to underrate your offense, Since pitchers' hitting stats aren't in the player database spreadsheet, I would have to manually adjust the numbers, which would be a monumental task... but probably worth it for the obvious great hitting pitchers.

You can get a rough estimate from pitchers whose salary far exceeds their pitching stats (e.g. ERC# or something like that)

Posted by schwarze on 8/16/2023 12:12:00 PM (view original):
League 1: Playoff Teams
.
NL East: 1901-02 Pirates (pedrocerrano) - pick #1
NL Central: 1909-10 Cubs (footballmm11) - pick #7
NL West: 1909-10 Athletics (redcped) - pick #4
NL Wildcard: 11911-12 Cubs (joerat) - pick #24
.
AL East: 1902-03 Pirates (schwarze) - pick #2
AL Central: 1904-05 Giants (pedrocerrano) - pick #6
AL West: 1910-11 Athletics (footballmm11) - pick #3
AL Wildcard: 1908-09 Cubs (ybjsports) - pick #10
.
Top 3 Runs Scoring Teams
1919-20 Indians (redcped)
1901-02 Pirates (pedrocerrano)
1910-11 Giants (footballmm11)
.
Top 3 Pitching Teams
1909-10 Cubs (footballmm11)
1914-15 Red Sox (richiebrown6)
1908-09 Cubs (ybjsports)
.
Top 3 Defensive Teams
1908-09 Pirates (barracuda3)
1912-13 Athletics (toysboys)
1911-12 Cubs (joerat1)

Other Advancing Teams
Since 50% of the round 5 teams will advance to round 6, I will make a generic assumption that exactly 12 teams (6 NL & 6 AL) from each league teams will advance. Besides the 8 projected playoff teams listed above, here are the 4 additional teams that I think have the best shot of advancing.

NL: 1905-06 Giants (schwarze) - pick #15
NL: 1908-09 Giants (calhoop) - pick #22
AL: 1912-13 Athletics (toysboys) - pick #16
AL: 1919-20 Indians (redcped) - pick #14

NL East: 1901-02 Pirates (pedrocerrano) --> Correct, won 96 games, got #1 seed
NL Central: 1909-10 Cubs (footballmm11) --> Incorrect, won 79 games, had division best .524 Exp Win%, due to 22-31 in 1-run games
NL West: 1909-10 Athletics (redcped) --> Correct, won 82 games in weak division
NL Wildcard: 1911-12 Cubs (joerat) --> Incorrect, finished won 78 games, 16 games out of wildcard spot
.
AL East: 1902-03 Pirates (schwarze) --> Correct, won 91 games, got #1 seed
AL Central: 1904-05 Giants (pedrocerrano) --> Incorrect, won 81 games, unlucky in 1-run games at 24-32
AL West: 1910-11 Athletics (footballmm11) --> Incorrect, won 77 games, but .521 Exp Win% only .002 behind division winner
AL Wildcard: 1908-09 Cubs (ybjsports) --> Close enough, won a weak AL West division with 82 wins, edged out 1910-11 A's by 5 games
.
Top 3 Runs Scoring Teams
1919-20 Indians (redcped) --> Correct, with '20 Ruth, scored 116 more runs than second place
1901-02 Pirates (pedrocerrano) --> Incorrect, finished 6th in runs scored, but only 19 runs out of 2nd
1910-11 Giants (footballmm11) --> Correct, finished 3rd in runs scored, just 4 runs behind 1912-13 A's
.
Top 3 Pitching Teams
1909-10 Cubs (footballmm11) --> Correct, finished with 150 fewer runs allowed than league average
1914-15 Red Sox (richiebrown6) --> Incorrect, finished 12th place, only 12 runs better than league average.
1908-09 Cubs (ybjsports) --> Correct, finished 15 runs out of 1st and 3 runs behind 06-07 Cubs.
.
Top 3 Defensive Teams
1908-09 Pirates (barracuda3) --> Close enough, they were 1st in + plays and league average in fielding%
1912-13 Athletics (toysboys) --> Close enough, they were 5th in + plays and 1st in fielding%
1911-12 Cubs (joerat1) --> Close enough, they were 2nd in + plays and league average in fielding%

Other Advancing Teams
Since 50% of the round 5 teams will advance to round 6, I will make a generic assumption that exactly 12 teams (6 NL & 6 AL) from each league teams will advance. Besides the 8 projected playoff teams listed above, here are the 4 additional teams that I think have the best shot of advancing.

NL: 1905-06 Giants (schwarze) - pick #15 --> Correct, they won 93 games, second best in league
NL: 1908-09 Giants (calhoop) - pick #22 --> Incorrect, they won only 75 games and were lucky to get that many
AL: 1912-13 Athletics (toysboys) - pick #16 --> Incorrect, just missed with 80 wins, thanks to a 3-7 record down the stretch
AL: 1919-20 Indians (redcped) - pick #14 --> Correct, won 87 games and made the playoffs as a wildcard team

Will try to find time to do this for the other three leagues.

How's this for being a nice guy? SCHWARZE gave me a team to play in Round Five so I'd have a team in every league of the round. I had the 19th pick and took what I thought was the best team available (the 41-42 Yankees) and put them in. Pretty much left them on Cruise Control for the entire season. They move on to the playoffs and then win the World Series - against SCHWARZE.

I feel ashamed...

In all fairness, footballmm11, barracuda3 and toysboys each ceded one team to you for round 5. Can't say for sure which of our teams ended up being your 41-42 Yankees.

Congrats!