Bad beats, underperforming stars, etc.. You know the drill.

What are the odds that all these massively underachieving players are on the same team?

2000 Jason Giambi
Real Life: .333, .476, .647
Sim: .160, .364, .320
OPS Diff: -.439

1975 Fred Lynn
Real Life: .331, .401, .566
Sim: .179, .258, .179
OPS Diff: -.530

1979 Fred Lynn
Real Life: .333, .423, .637
Sim: .154, .303, .269
OPS Diff: -.487

1978 Fred Lynn
Real Life: .298, .380, .492
Sim: .133, .133, .267
OPS Diff: -.472

2010 Troy Tulowitzki
Real Life: .315, .381, .568
Sim: .067, .167, .067
OPS Diff: -.706

2014 Troy Tulowitzki
Real Life: .340, .432, .603
Sim: .154, .313, .154
OPS Diff: -.569

1978 Ron Guidry
Real Life: 1.74 era, 0.95 whip
Sim: 9.00 era, 2.25 whip

1990 Dennis Eckersley
Real Life: 0.61 era, 0.62 whip
Sim: 27.00 era, 3.00 whip

1989 Dennis Eckersley
Real Life: 1.56 era, 0.61 whip
Sim: 15.43 era, 2.14 whip

Just your everyday stud-reliever blowup X 3

Ron Guidry & Associates vs Diamond Juice
Game tied 2-2 in going into the 7th. Carpenter pitched well, allowing only 2 runs in 6 innings. '88 Eckersley (0.87 real life whip) comes in and gives up 3 runs. Lose 5-2. OK - no big deal... game was tied, could've gone either way.

Bob Gibson & Associates vs Vote for Pedro
'68 Bob GIbson is cruising, leading 7-3 going into the 8th inning. He gets the first two betters, then allows a single and a walk. We remove him to bring in '98 Robb Nen (0.95 whip). Six f*cking runs score and we lose 9-7, all with two f*cking outs! It can't get any worse than that, can it?

Vida Blue & Associates vs This Team is All Right
Vida Blue pitches 7 shutout innings, allowing just 2 hits. But he reached his 110-pitch count. Leading 8-0, long reliever Derek Lowe comes in and gives up 3 runs in the 8th. Uh oh.. better bring in the ace, Trevor Hoffman. He gets out of the 8th. Still up 8-3, three more Hoffmans come in and give up 5 runs in the 9th! Do I really need to tell you what happens in the 10th? Groundout, walk, SB, strikeout, IBB, WP, WP. Lose 9-8. F*ck this game.

Posted my first 4-0 session finally. Been a rough go the last week or so, hopefully this turns things around.

Just a brutal run for my teams. After a 12-20 run, we're down to .500 overall. We're 12 games below .500 in 1-run games. Only 1 out of my 8 teams is above .500 in 1-run games.

My cumulative Expected Winning% is 25 points higher than my actual winning% (.525 vs .500), easily the biggest difference of anybody with more than 1 team (redcped is 2nd worst at 14 points (.536 vs .522). Only one other person (w/2+ teams) is even negative (2 pts).

Going to do a deep dive on all my teams to see what the problems are. I have a pretty good guess and it's not the offense or the starting pitching.

Now down to just 2 teams over .500... And somehow, all eight of my teams are underperforming their Exp Win%,
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My Teams	Win-Loss	Winning%	ExpWin%	Difference
Walter Johnson & Associates	40-27	0.597	0.610	-0.013
Babe Adams & Associates	38-29	0.567	0.606	-0.039
Bob Gibson & Associates	33-34	0.493	0.519	-0.026
Ron Guidry & Associates	33-34	0.493	0.518	-0.025
Christy Mathewson & Associates	33-34	0.493	0.511	-0.018
Vida Blue & Associates	31-36	0.463	0.474	-0.011
Jacob deGrom & Associates	31-36	0.463	0.467	-0.004
Honus Wagner & Associates	29-38	0.433	0.492	-0.059

A nice 1-7 session, now -15 in 1-run games.

Following the draft I noticed how a few of you were playing a good defensive 1B at 2B to get a little more offense. Interesting, I’d never really considered playing guys out of position. I guess I don’t play too many clone themes.

I decided I would try the same with Bagwell and let his 1997 version (.286/.425/.592, 43 HR, B/A @ 1B) start at 2B against LH’s to start this season. Although this isn’t a LH pitcher heavy league, he did manage to get 21% of the PA’s.

The result: 71 PA .175/.338/.246, 1 HR, 7 RBI, .967 FLD%, 3.95 RF, 2 E, 1 minus play in 132 innings.

My other 2B: 266 PA .331/.378/.447, 4 HR, 36 RBI, .986 FLD%, 4.40 RF, 4 E, 6 minus plays in 593 innings

Too small a sample size??? Maybe. Wrong side of the probability die…perhaps. But…yeah…that experiment is over.

My team was 39-38 in league 2, right on the edge of qualifying for the final round. Then they won 10 of the last 11; I'm feeling a bit better about my chances now!

So what's it feel like to be lucky in 1-run games and win more games than expected?
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My Teams	League	Pick#	Win-Loss	Winning%	ExpWi%	Difference	1RunW	1RunL
Babe Adams & Associates	1	20	53-37	0.589	0.624	-0.035	8	13
Walter Johnson & Associates	1	2	52-38	0.578	0.590	-0.012	11	10
Christy Mathewson & Associates	1	5	45-45	0.500	0.518	-0.018	14	18
Vida Blue & Associates	2	22	44-46	0.489	0.525	-0.036	9	12
Bob Gibson & Associates	2	3	43-47	0.478	0.506	-0.028	11	10
Ron Guidry & Associates	2	11	40-50	0.444	0.463	-0.019	10	12
Jacob deGrom & Associates	2	17	40-50	0.444	0.446	-0.002	11	10
Honus Wagner & Associates	1	21	39-51	0.433	0.463	-0.030	8	16
Averages		12.6	44.5	0.494	0.517	-0.023	82	101

Here is a snapshot of League 2's first round pitchers selected and their current stats...
Blue = Good (ERA under 4)
Green = Average (ERA in the 4's)
Red = Bad (ERA in the 5's)
Orange = Terrible (ERA 6+)
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ROUND 1
(01) FOOTBALLMM11 - '00 Pedro Martinez (3-5, 3.49 ERA, 4th in league)
(02) PEDROCERRANO - '94 Greg Maddux (8-6, 3.65 ERA, 5th in league)
(03) SCHWARZE - '68 Bob Gibson (7-10, 4.59 ERA)
(05) REDCPED - '65 Sandy Koufax (7-8, 5.06 ERA)
(06) BEALLENDALL - '15 Jake Arrieta (11-3, 4.90 ERA)
(07) DOUGSDAWGS13 - '15 Zack Greinke (9-6, 3.84 ERA, 6th in league)
(11) SCHWARZE - '78 Ron Guidry (6-9, 5.95 ERA)
(12) CALHOOP - '16 Clayton Kershaw (7-4, 5.83 ERA)
(13) CHISOCK- '68 Luis Tiant (12-10, 4.15 ERA)
(14) PEDROCERRANO - '64 Dean Chance (8-10, 4.30 ERA)
(15) BARRACUDA3 - '72 Don Sutton (12-2, 3.95 ERA, 9th in league)
(16) REDCPED - '86 Mike Scott (7-6, 5.58 ERA)
(17) SCHWARZE - '18 Jacob deGrom (4-8 5.96 ERA)
(19) DARTHDURRON - '20 Shane Bieber (4-9, 4.65 ERA)
(20) RICHIEBROWN6 - '04 Randy Johnson (11-5, 4.80 ERA)
(21) FOOTBALLMM11 - '20 Dinelson Lamet (0-9, 6.75 ERA)
(22) SCHWARZE - '71 Vida Blue (12-10, 4.44 ERA)
(23) STEVEIZZY - '17 Corey Kluber (7-3, 5.51 ERA)
(24) THEJUICE6 - '96 Kevin Brown (11-7, 2.96 ERA, 1st in league)

So glad I managed to get 2 of the worst ones!

It's always fun when a bunch of my teams tank while I'm on vacation. Two teams go from being (approx) .500 to way below .500.. Just brutal.

Walter Johnson & Associates: 3-9 run
Christy Mathewson & Associates: 5-10 run
Bob Gibson & Associates: 1-10 (only win vs Guidry team)
Ron Guidry & Associates: 3-11 (2 wins vs Gibson team)

Arrrrrrghhhhh, I totally whiffed on this theme. 3 chances to make the final round and I will be 0 for 3. I think this is the first Juice tournament that I didn't have a team in the final round. I'll just have to follow the final round in the forum.