Based on Exp%, my top 4 teams should be advancing with ranks of 2, 4, 7, and 12 (with a 5th team at #18).
In reality, I'm tracking with ranks of 4, 11, 16, and 20 (with that 5th team dropping all the way to #46 for good measure!), so my inability to convert run differential into wins will cost me 25+ rankings spots combined.